Texas Fall 2022

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dpep4
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#921 Postby dpep4 » Fri Nov 04, 2022 7:42 pm

It's actually New Boston, TX, but The Weather Channel map has it only labeled as Boston.

Earlier in Powderly, it's pretty bad:

 https://twitter.com/dfwtx17/status/1588677343618351105


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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#922 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 04, 2022 7:45 pm

Managed to see Brett Adair's Livestream from Ryan Hall Y'all (Actually very good with Livestreams), the tornado near New Boston, TX is HUGE!
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#923 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:05 pm

Supercell with a Mesocyclone near Longview, TX, not tornado warned yet.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#924 Postby Itryatgolf » Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:05 pm

Reed timmer coverage was good also. He was at a gas station when it hit but it barely missed him. He drove back 5 miles to that gas station to pick up his drone, which was in the parking lot of exxon. That storm went just west of ashtown.
Last edited by Itryatgolf on Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#925 Postby Itryatgolf » Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:06 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Supercell with a Mesocyclone near Longview, TX, not tornado warned yet.


Things about to become linear buddy imo
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#926 Postby jasons2k » Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:08 pm

Friends from SW Austin just called and said “that was a hell of a storm!”
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#927 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:22 pm

Severe damage in Cason, TX and New Boston, TX
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#928 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:29 pm

That Ryan Hall coverage is better than some local TV stations. Geez. The damage is heartbreaking. But, this was forecast very well by models and people, which is excellent.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#929 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:33 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:That Ryan Hall coverage is better than some local TV stations. Geez. The damage is heartbreaking. But, this was forecast very well by models and people, which is excellent.

Just got a radar indication that the tornado that struck Idabel, OK is at least EF4+.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#930 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Nov 04, 2022 9:24 pm

Following these storms today from the metro east has been exhausting, and I didn’t even need to leave my Dallas apartment today to observe a rotating updraft base on a weak supercell that passed to my west, and a weak funnel along the leading edge of the final squall line (which I believe may have been part of the circulation that ultimately went on to prompt the tornado warning in Rockwall county).

I can’t imagine what those who live east of the metro are dealing with tonight. So many tornadoes tonight, many of them strong.

2 nights ago, when I posted a sounding from the insane 0z NAM, I felt sick to my stomach. It’s fortunate that the system’s timing was faster than the NAM by enough to keep the heavily populated metro out of the worst of the outbreak, but it’s crazy that the high-end parameters it depicted actually verified further east. I believe it was the sped-up timing, leading to insufficient time in the warm sector for lapse rates to increase, that spared the metro and caused these storms to take their time in organizing.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#931 Postby jasons2k » Fri Nov 04, 2022 9:31 pm

For my area…
Looks like any discrete / scattered pre-frontal cells are falling apart at this point. Instability is down a notch now with the loss of daytime heating. Any rain and action will come from the main line which is becoming linear at this point. I’ll probably get 1/4 - 1/2” and a bunch of junk in the yard.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#932 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 04, 2022 9:44 pm

There's been a report of a Gate-to-Gate shear of 263 mph from one of the earlier violent tornadoes, but I can't figure out which one.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#933 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 05, 2022 9:39 am

Horrible damage from last night, will be watching for the first light drones.

Idabel, OK
[youtube]https://youtu.be/9Lmw71LI_WI[/youtube]

Simms to New Boston, TX
[youtube]https://youtu.be/DgkJ2aalucs[/youtube]

Powderly, TX (north of Paris, TX)
[youtube]https://youtu.be/6r6e91o8_hw[/youtube]
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#934 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Nov 05, 2022 9:53 am

00z Euro EPS is hinting at the chance for some winter weather across N. Texas and Oklahoma in the 18-20th range.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#935 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 05, 2022 10:02 am

bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro EPS is hinting at the chance for some winter weather across N. Texas and Oklahoma in the 18-20th range.

Not just that, NWS-Norman has mentioned the possibility of snow in their forecast area Next Thursday
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#936 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 05, 2022 10:38 am

First Light Drone over Idabel, OK

[youtube]https://youtu.be/jivtzQt49Cw[/youtube]
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#937 Postby Ntxw » Sat Nov 05, 2022 10:48 am

Iceresistance wrote:First Light Drone over Idabel, OK

https://youtu.be/jivtzQt49Cw


Just a guess but it looks like a lot of EF3 type damage from the video.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#938 Postby Ntxw » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:06 am

Daily SOI is back to back negative first in a while (late August). November for it has trended down, falling. Good sign regime change 2nd half of the month. Colder and stormy, 500mb becomes favorable.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#939 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:49 am

Powderly, TX Drone

[youtube]https://youtu.be/NCd13UlOEns[/youtube]
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#940 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Nov 05, 2022 12:34 pm

Snowing in Kansas City today. Wow.
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