ATL: NICOLE - Models

[jlauderdal]

Um holy moly… this is Andy’s model which did very well with Ian.

Hope you have your plan ready to execute.

[BobHarlem]

0Z ICON comes well inland into FL instead of skirting the coast due to stronger ridging to the NW and N.

0z Icon makes it into the Gulf.

[SFLcane]

Gfs way south…

[BobHarlem]

Miami/Ft. Lauderdale this time (back South)

[Blown Away]

00z GFS

WOW!

JLauderdale???

[BobHarlem]

It gets back into the Gulf just south of Tampa and bends slowly up toward the Big Bend, takes all day to do it Friday once back in the Gulf. Tampa winds up on the dirty side this time (for in Bay surge).

[Meteorcane]

Not sure what to make of that GFS run, shows a very elongated system initially with a western vortex rotating around the larger UL system before finally consolidating further SW. I am curious how much this initial mesoscale "cyclonic" interaction impacts the ultimate track, or if it actually occurs.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS… Legendary run…

[BobHarlem]

0z Canadian

[jlauderdal]

00z GFS

WOW!

JLauderdale???

Too far south, stuart area and north..nonetheless, beware of models underdoing ridges, seen that more than a few times

[MetroMike]

It gets back into the Gulf just south of Tampa and bends slowly up toward the Big Bend, takes all day to do it Friday once back in the Gulf. Tampa winds up on the dirty side this time (for in Bay surge).

Yes would be a bad scenario for Tampa Bay getting the surge we were supposed to get with Ian, albeit much weaker.

[Cat5James]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/jdSD35Z4/floop-gfs-2022110700-sfcwind-mslp-swatl-2.gif [/url]

00z GFS

WOW!

JLauderdale???

Too far south, stuart area and north..nonetheless, beware of models underdoing ridges, seen that more than a few times

Ensembles have always shown the possibility of a Miami/Broward landfall

[Spacecoast]

0z GEFS...

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: landfall 7AM Thursday barely north of Melbourne moving WNW. That's compared to Stuart also near 7AM on the 12Z. Then it goes WNW through Orlando and to the far NE GOM followed by going back inland to near Tallahassee:

TROPICAL STORM 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 23.8N 67.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.11.2022 0 23.8N 67.5W 1006 33
1200UTC 07.11.2022 12 26.1N 69.2W 1005 39
0000UTC 08.11.2022 24 26.3N 70.6W 1003 37
1200UTC 08.11.2022 36 27.1N 70.8W 1003 35
0000UTC 09.11.2022 48 28.1N 72.2W 1004 39
1200UTC 09.11.2022 60 27.4N 75.6W 1003 44
0000UTC 10.11.2022 72 26.6N 77.8W 1001 41
1200UTC 10.11.2022 84 28.1N 80.4W 1000 43
0000UTC 11.11.2022 96 29.2N 83.2W 998 32
1200UTC 11.11.2022 108 30.3N 84.1W 1001 26
0000UTC 12.11.2022 120 32.5N 82.5W 1003 26
1200UTC 12.11.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

[Blown Away]

00z HMON… 982mb landfall @WPB

[Blown Away]

0Z UKMET: landfall 7AM Thursday barely north of Melbourne moving WNW. That's compared to Stuart also near 7AM on the 12Z. Then it goes WNW through Orlando and to the far NE GOM followed by going back inland to near Tallahassee:

TROPICAL STORM 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 23.8N 67.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.11.2022 0 23.8N 67.5W 1006 33
1200UTC 07.11.2022 12 26.1N 69.2W 1005 39
0000UTC 08.11.2022 24 26.3N 70.6W 1003 37
1200UTC 08.11.2022 36 27.1N 70.8W 1003 35
0000UTC 09.11.2022 48 28.1N 72.2W 1004 39
1200UTC 09.11.2022 60 27.4N 75.6W 1003 44
0000UTC 10.11.2022 72 26.6N 77.8W 1001 41
1200UTC 10.11.2022 84 28.1N 80.4W 1000 43
0000UTC 11.11.2022 96 29.2N 83.2W 998 32
1200UTC 11.11.2022 108 30.3N 84.1W 1001 26
0000UTC 12.11.2022 120 32.5N 82.5W 1003 26
1200UTC 12.11.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

Models slowly smoothing that big N hump into a more W track it seems?

[Blown Away]

00z HWRF… 979 mb Cat 1 into @Stuart…

[Blown Away]

Larry, notice how a few models show mb’s dropping after making landfall? EURO, HWRF…

[LarryWx]

Larry, notice how a few models show mb’s dropping after making landfall? EURO, HWRF…

Maybe the Euro did that because it isn't purely tropical on the model?

By the way, the 0Z Euro at 72 is barely south of the 18Z at 78.

It is offshore just W of Tampa at 96, which is just NW of 12Z run at 108.

[Blown Away]

00z EURO… Landfall near WPB moving WNW across the FL Peninsula… 998 mb, slightly stronger…