Texas Fall 2022

[Ntxw]

[Cerlin]

Front has started to make its way through Oklahoma right now. Models have a pretty good grasp on the timing of the front, but a lot of models are either still much too warm behind it compared to current obs, or trying to catch up with the colder temperatures. The ones who are accurate with temps are starting to show a small band of sleet/frozen precip for the central/southern Oklahoma area tomorrow afternoon/evening. It looks like the slightly more progressive nature of the front is more conducive for some kind of lifting mechanism behind it, tapping into a little extra moisture.

For example here's the 12z HRRR from today.

While it doesn't show winter precipitation on the depiction map, a look at the sounding over some of those bands shows a slight warm nose and then cold air aloft right before the surface, which is only a couple degrees above freezing. This thermal profile is pretty typical for sleet. Especially if models are continuing to underestimate the temperatures, a solution like this could bring a taste of what we all want to see next week.

The 12z GFS also shows a similar solution.

Now, obviously this wouldn't be an event that sees any measurable precipitation, and it's still very low confidence even just 24-32 hours out. But, it's still fun to see models hinting at a possible event like this because if it verifies, it indicates these shortwaves are able to take advantage of the moisture the environment has available, which bodes well for the shortwaves that would bring wintry precipitation next week.

[Haris]

Dfw ers must must love the new cmc

[bubba hotep]

Mid to late next week's system is starting to look like the bigger storm. First winter storm of the season? 7 days out caveats but peculiar.

At the moment air above looks pretty cold. Those along 1-20 to I-40 with interest.

Very active pattern with cold air over the top. Just need the timing on one of these waves to get right. Things currently look really good for the Panhandle into Oklahoma.

[Iceresistance]

Snowfall Signal on the 12z GEFS is even stronger, mean 10:1 ratio snowfall is 2-4 inches for most of Oklahoma.

[TropicalTundra]

Front as we all expected looks to be ahead schedule.Temps should be dropping in OKC and around Lubbock within an hour or so.

[Iceresistance]

OOF!


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Oof.png

[gpsnowman]

OOF!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Oof.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Oof.png

Wow. Might be a while before we see a warm up.

[Brent]

OOF!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Oof.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Oof.png

Wow. Might be a while before we see a warm up.

They pretty much said earlier here at least to the beginning of Thanksgiving week probably

[gpsnowman]

OOF!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Oof.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Oof.png

Wow. Might be a while before we see a warm up.

They pretty much said earlier here at least to the beginning of Thanksgiving week probably

I have a feeling Turkey day will be back to near normal, which isn't terrible. I like the cold when I am outside smoking meats and sipping beer at my parents place on Caddo Lake in East Texas.

[Iceresistance]

The 18z GEFS has really taken note of the possible snow for my area tomorrow night, the signal for Monday/Tuesday has shifted much further east.

[HockeyTx82]

The 18z GEFS has really taken note of the possible snow for my area tomorrow night, the signal for Monday/Tuesday has shifted much further east.

Winter Cancel, see you all in the Spring thread.

I'm done.

[Iceresistance]

The 18z GEFS has really taken note of the possible snow for my area tomorrow night, the signal for Monday/Tuesday has shifted much further east.

Winter Cancel, see you all in the Spring thread.

I'm done.

Winter has not even started yet!

Late Next Week still has rain/snow for Northern Texas on the 18z GFS.

[Cerlin]

18z GFS runs were noticeably warmer for monday but the GFS always does this. I expect to see better chances in a few runs.

[Ntxw]

By next week we could be looking at one of the biggest (anytime of year) -EPOs on record. -4SD seems plausible, if it nudges over -5 that would be close to December 1983 values. More than likely a November record.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

[Iceresistance]

By next week we could be looking at one of the biggest (anytime of year) -EPOs on record. -4SD seems plausible, if it nudges over -5 that would be close to December 1983 values. More than likely a November record.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Jeez! What does that mean for the rest of winter?

If this happened in February with -AO and -NAO, we would need to prepare for a nasty extreme cold and a blizzard unlike any other! It would make February 2021 look like nothing!

[Ntxw]

By next week we could be looking at one of the biggest (anytime of year) -EPOs on record. -4SD seems plausible, if it nudges over -5 that would be close to December 1983 values. More than likely a November record.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Jeez! What does that mean for the rest of winter?

If this happened in February with -AO and -NAO, we would need to prepare for a nasty extreme cold and a blizzard unlike any other! It would make February 2021 look like nothing!

If this were happening in Dec-Feb, it would be a week to two week freeze.

[Iceresistance]

By next week we could be looking at one of the biggest (anytime of year) -EPOs on record. -4SD seems plausible, if it nudges over -5 that would be close to December 1983 values. More than likely a November record.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Jeez! What does that mean for the rest of winter?

If this happened in February with -AO and -NAO, we would need to prepare for a nasty extreme cold and a blizzard unlike any other! It would make February 2021 look like nothing!

If this were happening in Dec-Feb, it would be a week to two week freeze.

Yeah, like February 2021, I was below freezing for 14 days!
But, the rest of winter? What would that look like after that possible insane November -EPO?

Also, someone I know said that the Persimmons are spoons this winter. Even mentioned Double Spoons?

[Brent]

Man that fropa was brutal and swift here. Goodbye fall

[Ntxw]

Man that fropa was brutal and swift here. Goodbye fall

Quite a punch. Won't warm up much for you guys. DFW falls during the day tomorrow low to mid 40s as chilly rain comes in.