TropicalTundra wrote:12k NAM moved that snow line farther SE and cold air also bleeds farther east
Any chance DFW gets in the mix?
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TropicalTundra wrote:12k NAM moved that snow line farther SE and cold air also bleeds farther east
HockeyTx82 wrote:TropicalTundra wrote:12k NAM moved that snow line farther SE and cold air also bleeds farther east
Any chance DFW gets in the mix?
Itryatgolf wrote:Yall should check out what Larry Cosgrove said this morning on Instagram in his post
Sorry about that. I meant LinkedIn page
Itryatgolf wrote:Yall should check out what Larry Cosgrove said this morning on Instagram in his post
Sorry about that. I meant LinkedIn page
bubba hotep wrote:Itryatgolf wrote:Yall should check out what Larry Cosgrove said this morning on Instagram in his post
Sorry about that. I meant LinkedIn page
Can you post a summary?
HockeyTx82 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Itryatgolf wrote:Yall should check out what Larry Cosgrove said this morning on Instagram in his post
Sorry about that. I meant LinkedIn page
Can you post a summary?
Copied it verbatim.
Even though it should be (mostly) mild through the southern tier of the U.S. through the first five days of December, you could not ask for a more wintry pattern set-up than what unfolds in North America over the next two weeks.
Strong ridging sets up across Alaska and Greenland. The two positive 500MB height anomalies then tend to link with each other, creating an elongate block (-EPO/-AO/-NAO) around and above the Arctic Circle. This "mega ridge" signature traps cyclonic energy and cold pooling over Canada, ultimately forming a cAk vortex in the vicinity of Ontario, James Bay, perhaps Lake Superior by the 11-15 day period.
During the same time frame, storms over the Pacific Basin congeal below the Aleutian Islands, maintaining warm flow into Alaska with the upper ridge. Southern branch disturbances track eastward toward Baja California, along the Gulf Coast, and up along and off of the Eastern Seaboard. Each successive storm weakens a prominent subtropical high that looks to cover the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the Bahamas. One such impulse will bring heavy snow to the TX/OK Panhandle Region Thanksgiving into Friday, with excessive rain in the warm sector (E TX, E OK into the Mid-Atlantic). A larger, more definitive storm may crack the heat ridge for good at the end of the first week of December.
When you see a conjoined ridge complex at the pole, the resulting cold regime in Canada and the U.S. will be both widespread and long-lasting. And opportunities for significant snow and ice will be present at lower latitudes. Just think that you will have a chance at enjoying what life in Calgary AB or Saskatoon SK is like during the holidays. In your backyard.
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday period, everyone!
869MB wrote:FYI…
In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…
https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false
869MB wrote:FYI…
In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…
https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false
Iceresistance wrote:869MB wrote:FYI…
In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…
https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false
Great find!
I thought that the you needed a paid subscription to see it for the longest time!
It’s still not showing up on the long range GFS.Ntxw wrote:Larry Cosgrove's thoughts is quite on the same path as most here. In short there is a lot of cold air pooling in the NHEM. It will not take much to disperse it. Couple it with good blocking and it will come strong. It may happen sooner than you think.
It is that type of season when warmth is always 7 days out . Ensembles continue to show support very cold air is probably down the pipeline. We're looking at a few days of above normal but sandwiched between storminess and relative cool.
vbhoutex wrote:As much as we still need rain in Houston, I would prefer to have some sunshine and warmth mixed in! We haven't been above 61f in 2 weeks with a few days never getting out of the 40s.s. Seems about a month early. Every time I think it is going to warm up some my hopes are dashed as I read the different forecasts I follow.
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