Texas Winter 2022-2023

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2221 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:20 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Trough on the 12z Euro at +84 hours even further west


The ridging off the Baja has trended weaker and shifted SW over the last few runs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2222 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:20 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Trough on the 12z Euro at +84 hours even further west


I wish this would dig into Arizona and many of us would be happy lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2223 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:24 pm

The trough digs down to Kansas and Missouri before launching eastward.

It seems like that the Euro is also conservative with Troughs and Ridges as well.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2224 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:30 pm

Brent wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:Using the NBM is probably the best way to go right now until as Ntxw pointed out you get into Hi-Res timeframe where this arctic wave (dynamics) can be sampled better. Still think the GFS is a little too bullish and is definitely the outlier of the globals thus far in terms of accumulations but we shall see.

https://twitter.com/NWSSouthern/status/1604512477739302913?s=20&t=aYOWAGOOJYl22tszl7pcsg


Yeah I guess my thing is will this be a novelty snow or actually a full blown snowstorm


For you I think full blown.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2225 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:56 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Brent wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:Using the NBM is probably the best way to go right now until as Ntxw pointed out you get into Hi-Res timeframe where this arctic wave (dynamics) can be sampled better. Still think the GFS is a little too bullish and is definitely the outlier of the globals thus far in terms of accumulations but we shall see.

https://twitter.com/NWSSouthern/status/1604512477739302913?s=20&t=aYOWAGOOJYl22tszl7pcsg


Yeah I guess my thing is will this be a novelty snow or actually a full blown snowstorm


For you I think full blown.


I will say our TV met who said maybe a dusting yesterday is now saying the snow might make it to Christmas and it does seem like the Euro and CMC at least increased totals a bit well see
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2226 Postby wxman57 » Sun Dec 18, 2022 2:43 pm

Models still have it pretty cold here in Houston next Fri-Mon. Likely a high below freezing on Friday. Not cold enough for me, though. I love the cold. :jacket: :thermo:

If any of you will be out of town Thu-Mon then I'd advise turning off your water before you leave.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2227 Postby Itryatgolf » Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:34 pm

Cold looks like the main concern here. Probably winter weather will be to our north and east. I think we get a +EAMT event but too strong this time which floods the US with pacific air. Hopefully it don't last too long, but I still believe mid January at earliest. From what I understand we want a retraction of jet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2228 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:38 pm

Bill Ponder talks about snow clipping DFW, and maybe a blizzard in OK.

https://youtu.be/_lyczVFeZJo
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2229 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 18, 2022 4:29 pm

Tulsa AFD

Precipitation wise Wednesday night into Thursday...snow
accumulations look to be possible across Northeast Oklahoma into
Northwest Arkansas. Precise amounts will continue to be refined
as the exact track of the low pressure system become more defined.
At the same time...with the gusty winds and cold/drier
airmass...snow ratios could be high enough to create
impacts/blowing snow across parts of the CWA.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2230 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Dec 18, 2022 4:31 pm

Brent wrote:Tulsa AFD

Precipitation wise Wednesday night into Thursday...snow
accumulations look to be possible across Northeast Oklahoma into
Northwest Arkansas. Precise amounts will continue to be refined
as the exact track of the low pressure system become more defined.
At the same time...with the gusty winds and cold/drier
airmass...snow ratios could be high enough to create
impacts/blowing snow across parts of the CWA.


You cheated though. You moved to NE Oklahoma where they get snow almost every year lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2231 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:05 pm

Has our fate been sealed? Winter cancel? Seems quiet
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2232 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:09 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:Has our fate been sealed? Winter cancel? Seems quiet


I mean we pretty much already know what’s most likely coming. A potential historic Artic blast with what looks to be a small chance for wintry weather. Not much else to say unless the trough can dig further SW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2233 Postby Portastorm » Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:11 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:Has our fate been sealed? Winter cancel? Seems quiet


Channeling my inner Wxman57 … I don’t see snow as a viable option for most folks in Texas with this Arctic blast. Maybe along the Red River. That’s it. For most of us it’s going to be a dry cold and we’re going to like it (or not). :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2234 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:11 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:Has our fate been sealed? Winter cancel? Seems quiet



If winter cancel is low teens and single digits way south into Texas, then yeah….

Lol, seriously? :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2235 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:11 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:Has our fate been sealed? Winter cancel? Seems quiet

Well the cold is a given.. Waiting to see if the snow shifts south any the next few days. Hi-res models should give more clues as the days progress. It should be GFS time soon if not already.
Last edited by gpsnowman on Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2236 Postby SnowintheFalls » Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:12 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:Has our fate been sealed? Winter cancel? Seems quiet


I mean we pretty much already know what’s most likely coming. A potential historic Artic blast with what looks to be a small chance for wintry weather. Not much else to say unless the trough can dig further SW.


Exactly my thoughts. The cold is coming but precipitation looks to be unlikely outside of Oklahoma and areas north and east.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2237 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:12 pm

18Z ICON is the coldest run I have seen from the ICON. 15 degrees in Houston and 10 in Dallas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2238 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:25 pm

Yeah we're at point the cold is almost a given. Coldest late December (or any December temps) since the 80s. Just watching for storm trends now. And any possibilties with shortwave Christmas eve if it can find moisture.

Alter Ego heat miser has shown up so cold is confirmed. If 2021 didn't happen the temps would be talked about. But mehh 5 or 11 all feels the same :roll:.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2239 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:26 pm

Portastorm wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:Has our fate been sealed? Winter cancel? Seems quiet


Channeling my inner Wxman57 … I don’t see snow as a viable option for most folks in Texas with this Arctic blast. Maybe along the Red River. That’s it. For most of us it’s going to be a dry cold and we’re going to like it (or not). :wink:


Ha! Yeah I think that's probably where this is untimely headed as well (red river flurries to a dusting if I were to guess), but winter has just begun, and we have some signals that we could be reloading the pattern for mid-January. Still dangerous cold though for much of the state next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2240 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:40 pm

Considering it's December it is really expected for any major snow to be north. Maybe February, as the signs for a reload happening is there. Hoping for a surprise, but I won't be crushed if it's a dry cold like it appears to be. I just hope I will have snow on the ground to see the 30th up north. Probably will if it can ramp up early. If not, then dry cold there too.
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