Texas Winter 2022-2023

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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3281 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 05, 2023 1:40 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:winter cancel :eek:


We almost always have a significant warm period following major cold outbreaks. Unfortunately, below-normal temps will likely return either late this month or in January. For now, I'll take 70F-80F and sunny over cloudy with lows in the teens and a high near freezing any day.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3282 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 05, 2023 1:52 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:winter cancel :eek:


We almost always have a significant warm period following major cold outbreaks. Unfortunately, below-normal temps will likely return either late this month or in January. For now, I'll take 70F-80F and sunny over cloudy with lows in the teens and a high near freezing any day.


Our climate is like a seesaw that always seems to have a way of balancing itself out.

The weather is actually really nice right now because there’s not a lot of humidity. It could be a few degrees cooler but not gonna make a big deal about that. Hoping for some rain this weekend because the past few events have missed me.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3283 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 05, 2023 2:02 pm

Ntxw wrote:The North Pacific El Nino firehose type pattern eventually will end. That is not too concerning to me, it is self destructive without an El Nino.

Do want to see improvements in the cryosphere so that when it does happen, eventually, we'll be set up for high latitude blocking.


These North Pacific warm anomalies are causing havoc...very noteworthy. In fact, looking at these Historical west coast QPF amounts, it may be time to throw out all the Analogs/Prediction sit back and just enjoy this rare synoptic event unfold!!!

Over the past 60 days, some parts of Cali have 400-500% of normal precip and some models are doubling those amounts over next 2 weeks...50-60 inch QPF amounts in just 60 days!

Have zero clue how any long range winter forecaster can have any confidence moving forward dealing with this one!!

Image

Just look at that PACIFIC JET :double: , incredible!
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3284 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 05, 2023 2:25 pm

The EC is showing signs of wave breaks in the Pacific. Like I mentioned the Nino north Pacific pattern is self destructive. You keep lowering pressures the deep Aleutian systems pumps heat ahead and above it. It will break. CFSv2 by the end of the month sticking a -EPO pattern.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3285 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 05, 2023 2:29 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:The North Pacific El Nino firehose type pattern eventually will end. That is not too concerning to me, it is self destructive without an El Nino.

Do want to see improvements in the cryosphere so that when it does happen, eventually, we'll be set up for high latitude blocking.


These North Pacific warm anomalies are causing havoc...very noteworthy. In fact, looking at these Historical west coast QPF amounts, it may be time to throw out all the Analogs/Prediction sit back and just enjoy this rare synoptic event unfold!!!

Over the past 60 days, some parts of Cali have 400-500% of normal precip and some models are doubling those amounts over next 2 weeks...50-60 inch QPF amounts in just 60 days!

Have zero clue how any long range winter forecaster can have any confidence moving forward dealing with this one!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/ostia-all/globe/sst_anom/1672790400-Z70zDR7owpE.png

Just look at that PACIFIC JET :double: , incredible!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/pacwide/z200_speed/1672920000/1673092800-lHsaGGQ9F7A.png


Has there ever been a La Niña featuring this?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3286 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 05, 2023 3:15 pm

Ntxw wrote:The EC is showing signs of wave breaks in the Pacific. Like I mentioned the Nino north Pacific pattern is self destructive. You keep lowering pressures the deep Aleutian systems pumps heat ahead and above it. It will break. CFSv2 by the end of the month sticking a -EPO pattern.


Much improved over previous forecasts...
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3287 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 05, 2023 3:34 pm

Im still not that concerned there is no way imo that on January 5th there won't be some other sort of winter thing before it's over :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3288 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:36 pm

Latest Euro Weeklies show much colder conditions returning to a large part of the US late January into early February. Seems reasonable. I do not think winter is over for us yet. I'm expecting at least one more round of cold weather before spring arrives.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3289 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:01 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Latest Euro Weeklies show much colder conditions returning to a large part of the US late January into early February. Seems reasonable. I do not think winter is over for us yet. I'm expecting at least one more round of cold weather before spring arrives.


The pattern reverses off the west coast. Rubberband effect after the 20th. It looks like a set up for cold dump into the interior of the country again into the first week of Feb. This is what the cfsv2 has been shifting towards.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3290 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:13 pm

Ntxw wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Latest Euro Weeklies show much colder conditions returning to a large part of the US late January into early February. Seems reasonable. I do not think winter is over for us yet. I'm expecting at least one more round of cold weather before spring arrives.


The pattern reverses off the west coast. Rubberband effect after the 20th. It looks like a set up for cold dump into the interior of the country again into the first week of Feb. This is what the cfsv2 has been shifting towards.

https://i.imgur.com/rMG0CHQ.png

ECR and SE Ridge with NW Trough? This is similar to February 2021. I don't think this will be a repeat of it though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3291 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:17 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3292 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:24 pm

Euro Weeklies look like a return to seasonal temps with some colder risk in February. They do relax the Pacific pattern, but it takes a while for cold to rebuild in Western Canada, so probably looking out beyond the first week of Feb. The Mountain West out to the Sierras will continue their epic winter; this looks like one for the ages out there!

Also, the Euro monthlies show a cool start to Spring, esp. in April. Kind of looks like the lag pattern of a February SSW.
Last edited by bubba hotep on Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3293 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Latest Euro Weeklies show much colder conditions returning to a large part of the US late January into early February. Seems reasonable. I do not think winter is over for us yet. I'm expecting at least one more round of cold weather before spring arrives.


The pattern reverses off the west coast. Rubberband effect after the 20th. It looks like a set up for cold dump into the interior of the country again into the first week of Feb. This is what the cfsv2 has been shifting towards.

https://i.imgur.com/rMG0CHQ.png


Yep, good signs…this forecasted break is currently right outside medium range ensembles. Almost within range…
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3294 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 05, 2023 7:33 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Latest Euro Weeklies show much colder conditions returning to a large part of the US late January into early February. Seems reasonable. I do not think winter is over for us yet. I'm expecting at least one more round of cold weather before spring arrives.


The pattern reverses off the west coast. Rubberband effect after the 20th. It looks like a set up for cold dump into the interior of the country again into the first week of Feb. This is what the cfsv2 has been shifting towards.

https://i.imgur.com/rMG0CHQ.png


Yep, good signs…this forecasted break is currently right outside medium range ensembles. Almost within range…


It will take a little more time. Trough will enter the west first before you get a connected TPV and trailing trough from Hudson Bay to the southwest US. This is classic cold pattern we have seen the past few years with -PNA and SE ridge. That dagger cold pattern down the Rockies.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3295 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 05, 2023 7:43 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
The pattern reverses off the west coast. Rubberband effect after the 20th. It looks like a set up for cold dump into the interior of the country again into the first week of Feb. This is what the cfsv2 has been shifting towards.

https://i.imgur.com/rMG0CHQ.png


Yep, good signs…this forecasted break is currently right outside medium range ensembles. Almost within range…


It will take a little more time. Trough will enter the west first before you get a connected TPV and trailing trough from Hudson Bay to the southwest US. This is classic cold pattern we have seen the past few years with -PNA and SE ridge. That dagger cold pattern down the Rockies.


The ECR (East Coast Ridge) can also really help funnel the cold here. That may have been the case in February 2021. I noticed the ridge along the East Coast when the cold really came down.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3296 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Jan 05, 2023 8:03 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
The pattern reverses off the west coast. Rubberband effect after the 20th. It looks like a set up for cold dump into the interior of the country again into the first week of Feb. This is what the cfsv2 has been shifting towards.

https://i.imgur.com/rMG0CHQ.png


Yep, good signs…this forecasted break is currently right outside medium range ensembles. Almost within range…


It will take a little more time. Trough will enter the west first before you get a connected TPV and trailing trough from Hudson Bay to the southwest US. This is classic cold pattern we have seen the past few years with -PNA and SE ridge. That dagger cold pattern down the Rockies.


Troughs that come down the Rockies is a great recipe for winter weather in TX
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3297 Postby Quixotic » Thu Jan 05, 2023 9:32 pm

Next person who compares to Feb 2021 should be permabanned. Holy moly. If it’s imminent great. If we are talking about the frigging CFS then it’s absurd. There are few comparisons to Feb 2021: Dec 83, Jan/Feb 78, Jan 79, Feb 85, Dec 89, Feb 11 and any month of 2013. That’s 9 months out of the 150 winter months I’ve been here.
Last edited by Quixotic on Thu Jan 05, 2023 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3298 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 05, 2023 9:37 pm

Quixotic wrote:Next person who compares to Feb 2021 should be permabanned. Holy moly. If it’s imminent great. If we are talking about the frigging CFS then it’s absurd. There are few comparisons to Feb 2021: Dec 83, Jan/Feb 78, Jan 79, Feb 85, Feb 11 and any month of 2013. That’s 9 months out of the 150 months I’ve been here.

Why me? :lol:
I used it with the intention of referencing to another similar pattern that has been showing up on the models.

The CFS is terrible with general forecasting (especially in the very long range), but it's really good with general patterns once it shows consistency!
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3299 Postby Quixotic » Thu Jan 05, 2023 9:40 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Quixotic wrote:Next person who compares to Feb 2021 should be permabanned. Holy moly. If it’s imminent great. If we are talking about the frigging CFS then it’s absurd. There are few comparisons to Feb 2021: Dec 83, Jan/Feb 78, Jan 79, Feb 85, Feb 11 and any month of 2013. That’s 9 months out of the 150 months I’ve been here.

Why me? :lol:
I used it with the intention of referencing to another similar pattern that has been showing up on the models.

The CFS is terrible with general forecasting (especially in the very long range), but it's really good with general patterns once it shows consistency!


Because it’s based on hope and hype and not reality. I see signs of hope for wintry mischief. I don’t see anything even resembling Feb 2021.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3300 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 05, 2023 9:47 pm

Increasing number of Euro Ensembles are showing a true SSW in February, someone named Mark Margavage (AKA MeteoMark) has confirmed that trend on Twitter.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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