Texas Winter 2022-2023

[orangeblood]

I wonder what the disconnect is with CFSv2 on wxbell and tidbits. They are not reflecting the same thing?

https://i.imgur.com/kgbUYKH.png

I believe tidbits takes past 12 run average and wxbell is latest single run, in this case today's 06Z

Unless I'm mistaken it's also 6z on tidbits, cfsv2 is an ensemble of runs. The actual NCEP source has below anomalies week 3 and 4 so it may have something to do with discrepancies with climo.

https://i.imgur.com/UNWSYe0.png

The wxbell CFSv2 varies widely from run to run so not sure what exactly it's pulling from....

[Cpv17]

I wonder what the disconnect is with CFSv2 on wxbell and tidbits. They are not reflecting the same thing?

https://i.imgur.com/kgbUYKH.png

I believe tidbits takes past 12 run average and wxbell is latest single run, in this case today's 06Z

Unless I'm mistaken it's also 6z on tidbits, cfsv2 is an ensemble of runs. The actual NCEP source has below anomalies week 3 and 4 so it may have something to do with discrepancies with climo.

https://i.imgur.com/UNWSYe0.png

That’s weird…

[Sambucol]

Parts of Siberia on Tuesday could reach the -90s F. Brrrr.

Where? And did this end up happening?

Looks like north/central Siberia. It's such a huge area of nothing but frigid cold. Not sure exactly where but according to Ryan Maue models had -90s but maybe only reached the -80s. Not much of a difference. Cpv17 in a post above mentions several Russian cities that have come close to -90. Maybe check those out currently.

That’s colder than it was for the cold air mass last month. I think Siberia got down to -70 or in that general area.

[orangeblood]

The ARCTIC PUMP is priming - That is some MAJOR cold bottled up in the Arctic....been awhile since I've seen 7 day anomalies like this in that part of the world during coldest time of year!

[harp]

The ARCTIC PUMP is priming - That is some MAJOR cold bottled up in the Arctic....been awhile since I've seen 7 day anomalies like this in that part of the world during coldest time of year!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_7day/1673352000/1674734400-4ZrxnRE0PDA.png

Yep! Just need something to drive it south.

[Ntxw]

While not negative, SOI has taken a pretty steep fall. Last big fall was mid December also not all that negative then but did shift the convection. Likely signals changes in tropical forcing.

[Ntxw]

The ARCTIC PUMP is priming - That is some MAJOR cold bottled up in the Arctic....been awhile since I've seen 7 day anomalies like this in that part of the world during coldest time of year!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_7day/1673352000/1674734400-4ZrxnRE0PDA.png

In the near to medium term, high Arctic ridging is setting stage for TPV to develop over North America. Seeding the cold air to our side of the globe. We still have a -AO that has been persistent all winter so far. It just needed the Pacific to not mix maritime air.

Code: Select all

1/6/2023   -0.205357929
1/7/2023   -2.704448241
1/8/2023   -1.532255063
1/9/2023   -1.496816092


[Ntxw]

Pretty good agreement today from ENs and OPs ~20th the final system will come into the interior west and ridging builds up behind it marking the end of this 'January thaw' along with a shutoff to the California rains. In fact after that California may embark in an unusual warm/dry stretch due to western and EPO ridge linkage. Interior west and central US will cool first and spread east. Arctic air won't come, if it does, until after the 25th when mslp rises and HP domes come down from the Arctic blocking.

We are setting up for cold dumps if we can the right delivery pattern.

[Quixotic]

Dreaming of a big bowling ball low.

[harp]

GFS shows…..nothing.

[Cpv17]

GFS shows…..nothing.

It’s not going to yet. Too early.

[harp]

GFS shows…..nothing.

It’s not going to yet. Too early.

I know, but damn….

[Iceresistance]

We've been here before in January, the models were basically hopeless. Just wait another 1-3 weeks and soon, we're back in business.

[Brent]

Our TV met just put up a story that the start of February looks "frigid"

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Our TV met just put up a story that the start of February looks "frigid"

That’s my feeling. I think the tail end of January may be cool to cold, but anything major is probably the first couple of weeks of February, if we get the delivery.

[bubba hotep]

We knew that the pattern change would not be followed by big cold b/c there is no big cold in NA. The big question is, how long does the pattern shift hold, and do we finally see some bigger cold, or is it just seasonal? Going back to the Fall, the NPJ has been pretty relentless, except for the relaxation that allowed the December cold snap. I did have concerns that the Pacific might reload and bring us right back to this Pacific air flood, but things seem to be trending away from that. However, MJO 4/5/6 might be lurking, which would probably be the end of things. The current MJO is being overwhelmed by the strong SPV, but the warmer phases wouldn't face the same issues. Hopefully, the Pacific will play nice, and we at least get a few weeks of seasonal weather.

Also, I'm pretty salty that the wetter pattern across Texas vanished from the longer range. At one point, it looked like most of Texas would at least see some rain with these warmer temps, but that never materialized.

[Ntxw]

Also, I'm pretty salty that the wetter pattern across Texas vanished from the longer range. At one point, it looked like most of Texas would at least see some rain with these warmer temps, but that never materialized.

SOI is king here. We are so sensitive to it. The pattern that drenched California typically gives us lots of qpf too but it dries up and redelivers to the east. Only solidifies the SOI to our long term rainy patterns.

[Cpv17]

How does tropical forcing play a role in all of this? And does it have to be in a certain area?

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1613160987292475394




 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1613120732279590912

[Brent]

The end of the GFS may be starting to show the change