Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3441 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 11, 2023 9:57 am

Brent wrote:The end of the GFS may be starting to show the change


Check out the GEFS. It has that classic horseshoe blocking stretching into the Artic.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3442 Postby harp » Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:01 am

Larry Cosgrove remains fairly confident in the pattern flip towards the end of the month. He said it should begin to show up on the operational models in about two days. (I asked him)
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3443 Postby harp » Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:01 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:The end of the GFS may be starting to show the change


Check out the GEFS. It has that classic horseshoe blocking stretching into the Artic.

Can you post it?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3444 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:03 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:The end of the GFS may be starting to show the change


Check out the GEFS. It has that classic horseshoe blocking stretching into the Artic.

Also features the ECR.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3445 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:06 am

Brent wrote:The end of the GFS may be starting to show the change

6z has a Catastrophic Ice Storm for most of Oklahoma and parts of Texas!


Also, Stratwarm is starting right now over Siberia
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3446 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:32 am

Still a ways to go yet. Some record warmth today.

However system around ~17th-20th is one to watch. Should usher in some changes, not brutal cold...yet, but a change in the 500mb flow.

ENs generally agree on poleward -EPO ridge connecting after the 25th period.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3447 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:37 am

Siberia just recorded their coldest temp since 2002 at -80F, very noteworthy moving forward....

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3448 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:47 am

orangeblood wrote:Siberia just recorded their coldest temp since 2002 at -80F, very noteworthy moving forward....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmIy8G2WQAI0H5F?format=jpg&name=small


I may be the only one on here, but I would like to layer up in my Sitka Arctic gear and experience -90F for a hot two minutes.
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I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3449 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:51 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Siberia just recorded their coldest temp since 2002 at -80F, very noteworthy moving forward....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmIy8G2WQAI0H5F?format=jpg&name=small


I may be the only one on here, but I would like to layer up in my Sitka Arctic gear and experience -90F for a hot two minutes.


Coldest morning may be Friday. Somewhere in the region may reach -85F or more.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3450 Postby Sambucol » Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:52 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Siberia just recorded their coldest temp since 2002 at -80F, very noteworthy moving forward....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmIy8G2WQAI0H5F?format=jpg&name=small


I may be the only one on here, but I would like to layer up in my Sitka Arctic gear and experience -90F for a hot two minutes.


You’re not alone. Me too!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3451 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:55 am

Sambucol wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Siberia just recorded their coldest temp since 2002 at -80F, very noteworthy moving forward....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmIy8G2WQAI0H5F?format=jpg&name=small


I may be the only one on here, but I would like to layer up in my Sitka Arctic gear and experience -90F for a hot two minutes.


You’re not alone. Me too!

I would, but I don't want to because I would get frostbite in under 5 minutes if I'm not careful! :froze:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3452 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Jan 11, 2023 11:08 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Sambucol wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
I may be the only one on here, but I would like to layer up in my Sitka Arctic gear and experience -90F for a hot two minutes.


You’re not alone. Me too!

I would, but I don't want to because I would get frostbite in under 5 minutes if I'm not careful! :froze:


Not with the hunting and backcountry skiing gear I have. You'd be toasty and would want to unravel, but you can't.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3453 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 11, 2023 11:35 am

MSLP in the high Arctic has been trending towards cold delivery. As the period comes into view will likely see it increase in magnitude. Connect the Pacific ridge with it and we'll go -EPO.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3454 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 11, 2023 12:06 pm

Already 77 at the airport. Record high is 83 today with good chance to tie or break it. Yuck. Tomorrow will feel downright cold with strong north winds and temps in the 50s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3455 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 11, 2023 1:39 pm

Feeling good about it all. Really good to see the guidance follow through to the persistent minds i.e. Larry Cosgrove.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3456 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 11, 2023 1:52 pm

If this plays out with deep TPV settling over North America, source region will be exceptionally cold to tap from.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3457 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 11, 2023 3:13 pm

This is a legit 5-day mean cold look

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3458 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 11, 2023 3:57 pm



I like that it's based in the west/central region. But, that usually means maybe 2 days there and then it rapidly moves east.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3459 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 11, 2023 4:11 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:


I like that it's based in the west/central region. But, that usually means maybe 2 days there and then it rapidly moves east.


Being a means it's giving probability that more members are trending colder/coming into view. I expect the OPs to join in the coming days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3460 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 11, 2023 4:20 pm

EPS trough isn't ideal as GEFS (long range) but the Pacific changes are pretty good. Lots of ridging in the Northeast Pacific region. Things are definitely not looking bleak and arrow may be pointing at another severe outbreak of cold, should it stand.
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