Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Brent]

Most of us have experienced really low temperatures already. Give us a digging southwest trof pumping moisture for days.

Yeah the bigger issue is how it continues to be dry... We gotta get some moisture in here one way or the other

We need the SOI to tank.

I mean literally tonight up here... Storms an hour away but not a drop here

[Cpv17]

Yeah the bigger issue is how it continues to be dry... We gotta get some moisture in here one way or the other

We need the SOI to tank.

I mean literally tonight up here... Storms an hour away but not a drop here

A few days ago over here we had places getting 3-5” of rain and all I got was a quarter inch.

[Brent]

Snowing here at day 10 on the GFS

[Ntxw]

Even more improvement on guidance. May see EPO pop before 25th.

Coming pattern may be even better than December.

[Iceresistance]

Even more improvement on guidance. May see EPO pop before 25th.

Coming pattern may be even better than December.

And likely prolonged, the 6z GFS is looking better in the long range compared to 0z.

[Ntxw]

Even more improvement on guidance. May see EPO pop before 25th.

Coming pattern may be even better than December.

And likely prolonged, the 6z GFS is looking better in the long range compared to 0z.

TPV is anchored over North America through much of Feb. Any good delivery pattern will send some down (cold). We asked the question where does the cold set shop with SSW/SSWE. Well right now appears it will be North America.

[harp]

Even more improvement on guidance. May see EPO pop before 25th.

Coming pattern may be even better than December.

Yes, but will there be moisture this time….

[Ntxw]

Even more improvement on guidance. May see EPO pop before 25th.

Coming pattern may be even better than December.

Yes, but will there be moisture this time….

Can't promise that . At these ranges it's only pattern recognition. We do have a lowering of SOI that isn't TC induced, Tahiti pressure falls so hopeful.

[orangeblood]

SPV destruction now becoming more likely towards the end of the month...this upcoming below normal period could extend well into later half of winter

current


2 weeks out

[harp]

La La Land GFS gives you guys in north Texas some snow

[orangeblood]

La La Land GFS gives you guys in north Texas some snow

Numerous cold/stormy signals for southern plains showing up in weeks 2-3

[harp]

La La Land GFS gives you guys in north Texas some snow

Numerous cold/stormy signals for southern plains showing up in weeks 2-3

I just hope it doesn’t forget your neighbors to the east in Louisiana….

[orangeblood]

La La Land GFS gives you guys in north Texas some snow

Numerous cold/stormy signals for southern plains showing up in weeks 2-3

I just hope it doesn’t forget your neighbors to the east in Louisiana….

I hear ya, much tougher task climatologically speaking!!! But looking at the extreme cold air across North Hem currently, odds seem more favorable than normal

[Iceresistance]

Numerous cold/stormy signals for southern plains showing up in weeks 2-3

I just hope it doesn’t forget your neighbors to the east in Louisiana….

I hear ya, much tougher task climatologically speaking!!! But looking at the extreme cold air across North Hem currently, odds seem more favorable than normal

The GEFS has a relatively weak snowfall signal for Louisiana in that timeframe, it's weaker than my location, but it's better than having no snowfall signal!

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove/status/1613178914700144640




 https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove/status/1613535043900813317




 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1613551121032744963

[Iceresistance]

This looks nice on the 12z GFS, and it's less than 10 days away.


https://s3.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_40.png

[Ntxw]

This looks nice on the 12z GFS, and it's less than 10 days away.

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_40.png
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_40.png

Laying down a good snow pack before any real cold arrives.

[Iceresistance]

Curses! The 12z GFS ended before the fun could begin!

[orangeblood]

La La land but has backing....could not draw up a better 500mb map for Southern Plains Winter weather!!! Textbook

The PV charging south tapped into the Siberian currently breaking records...MAJOR cross polar flow setup

[Ntxw]

La La land but has backing....could not draw up a better 500mb map for Southern Plains Winter weather!!! Textbook

The PV charging south tapped into the Siberian currently breaking records...MAJOR cross polar flow setup

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1673524800/1674885600-zUeksQiBD9g.png

We're only seeing glimpses of it. Still a way to go yet and maybe nuclear option! You have to like the trends though and Ensembles leading the way.