Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

Tulsa already mentioning wintry precip possible in the AFD and its still long range

OUN is more pessimistic

While confidence is moderate to high for some magnitude of colder
weather (compared to now), precipitation will depend on the
evolution the aforementioned trough(s) (i.e., confidence is much
lower on this aspect of the forecast). A split-flow regime with a
distinct southwest U.S. trough would be more favorable for
precipitation (perhaps even winter precipitation depending on the
thermal profile). For now, the official forecast remains dry
given the most likely scenario (based on probabilistic guidance)
is dry conditions.

[Itryatgolf]

Is this the dream setup on the 18z GFS?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_fh282-384.gif
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_fh282-384.gif

Some pretty good cold and snowy analogs are showing up. We're only seeing glimpses right now. Maybe a couple of winter storms before the cold comes in later.

Ntxw, I know you have mentioned the -ao is very important, which it is but imo a -epo/wpo combo strong enough to really send a cold blast south would help tremendously. Something to watch for and consider moving forward. Or is able to send enough cold air south and east. My gut says ice and sleet may become a concern for some with shallowness of the air if enough cold does come down

[Ntxw]

Is this the dream setup on the 18z GFS?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_fh282-384.gif
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_fh282-384.gif

Some pretty good cold and snowy analogs are showing up. We're only seeing glimpses right now. Maybe a couple of winter storms before the cold comes in later.

Ntxw, I know you have mentioned the -ao is very important, which it is but imo a -epo/wpo combo strong enough to really send a cold blast south would help tremendously. Something to watch for and consider moving forward. Or is able to send enough cold air south and east. My gut says ice and sleet may become a concern for some with shallowness of the air if enough cold does come down

Well the whole reason it's going to get colder is because the Pacific flips from +EPO/WPO to -EPO/-WPO. Jet retraction.

[Iceresistance]

Some pretty good cold and snowy analogs are showing up. We're only seeing glimpses right now. Maybe a couple of winter storms before the cold comes in later.

Ntxw, I know you have mentioned the -ao is very important, which it is but imo a -epo/wpo combo strong enough to really send a cold blast south would help tremendously. Something to watch for and consider moving forward. Or is able to send enough cold air south and east. My gut says ice and sleet may become a concern for some with shallowness of the air if enough cold does come down

Well the whole reason it's going to get colder is because the Pacific flips from +EPO/WPO to -EPO/-WPO. Jet retraction.

The California Fire Hose jet is going to start kinking soon, and when it does, it may start going from straight flow to cross polar flow.

[Cpv17]

18z GEFS is terrible after 300 hours. Good thing it’s far out.

[bubba hotep]

That is some crazy cold in our source region for the end of an ensemble run!

[Cpv17]

That is some crazy cold in our source region for the end of an ensemble run!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023011418/gfs-ens_T850a_namer_65.png

SE ridge though so that’s not coming here unless it changes.

[Brent]

The big snowstorm around day 10 is back on the GFS here

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That is some crazy cold in our source region for the end of an ensemble run!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023011418/gfs-ens_T850a_namer_65.png

SE ridge though so that’s not coming here unless it changes.

Arctic cold will overwhelm a SE ridge 75 times out of 10

[Cpv17]

That is some crazy cold in our source region for the end of an ensemble run!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023011418/gfs-ens_T850a_namer_65.png

SE ridge though so that’s not coming here unless it changes.

Arctic cold will overwhelm a SE ridge 75 times out of 10

-PNA though. That will spill into the SW, not here…

[txtwister78]

That is some crazy cold in our source region for the end of an ensemble run!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023011418/gfs-ens_T850a_namer_65.png

SE ridge though so that’s not coming here unless it changes.

SE ridges aren't the end all be all to winter and cold. In fact, they can actually deliver some nice winter weather events for our region. With that much cold pushing into the pattern, eventually it will win out and then you look for systems digging out of the SW into Mexico and ejecting over TX. You won't need that much arctic air to deliver the goods. Models are already hinting with these cutters, but eventually the cold pushes and wins and then look out.

I actually think this upcoming pattern is more exciting than what we saw coming in December. While that was a monster arctic high, it was a dry cold signal/ pattern all the way. That won't be the case this time and you can thank that SE ridge in part.

[Cpv17]

That is some crazy cold in our source region for the end of an ensemble run!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023011418/gfs-ens_T850a_namer_65.png

SE ridge though so that’s not coming here unless it changes.

SE ridges aren't the end all be all to winter and cold. In fact, they can actually deliver some nice winter weather events for our region. With that much cold pushing into the pattern, eventually it will win out and then you look for systems digging out of the SW into Mexico and ejecting over TX. You won't need that much arctic air to deliver the goods. Models are already hinting with these cutters, but eventually the cold pushes and wins and then look out.

I actually think this upcoming pattern is more exciting than what we saw coming in December. While that was a monster arctic high, it was a dry cold signal/ pattern all the way. That won't be the case this time and you can thank that SE ridge in part.

Yeah I got you on that. I’m just concerned the PNA will be too negative. Maybe I’m just trippin lol

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That is some crazy cold in our source region for the end of an ensemble run!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023011418/gfs-ens_T850a_namer_65.png

SE ridge though so that’s not coming here unless it changes.

SE ridges aren't the end all be all to winter and cold. In fact, they can actually deliver some nice winter weather events for our region. With that much cold pushing into the pattern, eventually it will win out and then you look for systems digging out of the SW into Mexico and ejecting over TX. You won't need that much arctic air to deliver the goods. Models are already hinting with these cutters, but eventually the cold pushes and wins and then look out.

I actually think this upcoming pattern is more exciting than what we saw coming in December. While that was a monster arctic high, it was a dry cold signal/ pattern all the way. That won't be the case this time and you can thank that SE ridge in part.

That’s a bingo. I’m loving what I’m seeing and I hope that SE ridge stays put. Sets up a hell of a setup for ice/snow

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1614620700517466112




 https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove/status/1614475769643937797

[Itryatgolf]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1614620700517466112?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove/status/1614475769643937797?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

The thing is that you live in the best location around okc so I expect you to see some winter events once this pattern gets going. Ultimately you want a strong enough epo or ao to force the cold southeast to make it more of a battle ground with se ridge imo

[Iceresistance]

The GFS is starting to trend towards more snow for Kansas, Oklahoma, and parts of Northern Texas.

EDIt: Nevermind, the SE Ridge gets stronger and more oriented towards us, less poleward.

[Ntxw]

The GFS is starting to trend towards more snow for Kansas, Oklahoma, and parts of Northern Texas.

EDIt: Nevermind, the SE Ridge gets stronger and more oriented towards us, less poleward.

The models diverge after the medium range. But all sets up cold. These big systems are going to be a struggle to model outside of 5 days and really 3.

On the note of SE ridge one also has to consider they are not equal at different times of the winter. It is much more detrimental early winter (December) because hemispheric warmth tends to outweigh cold. Later in winter is a tad different. Also the bad SE ridge patterns usually is accompanied by a cold Gulf of Alaska cold pool and one that stretches east of Hawaii. Not the case here.

[Ntxw]

Also mark down post Feb 20th for another -EPO return on the GEFS extended. What a returning cycle we've been in since Fall!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Also mark down post Feb 20th for another -EPO return on the GEFS extended. What a returning cycle we've been in since Fall!

I kinda like these COD MJO cycles. At least from a trading perspective, I do.

It’s also easier on my clients when planning CapEx work outside in Q1

[Iceresistance]

Joe Bastardi is scared of the 12z CMC

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1614679244457533442