Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Itryatgolf]

Joe Bastardi is scared of the 12z CMC

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1614679244457533442?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Cmc is a cold biased model. It's been that way for years lol. It can get a pattern correct sometimes but typically a cold biased. I don't put much stock in it at all

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Joe Bastardi is scared of the 12z CMC

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1614679244457533442?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Cmc is a cold biased model. It's been that way for years lol. It can get a pattern correct sometimes but typically a cold biased. I don't put much stock in it at all

It nailed February 2021 ….

[Ntxw]

Euro and OP GFS totally different. Do you want wet western trough and eastern ridge, or dry eastern trough and western ridge? Got to love these periods of change!

[cheezyWXguy]

All this talk of a southeast ridge makes me wonder about the prospects of an overrunning/mixed precip event at some point, kind of like last year. A cold air dump would have the potential to undercut western periphery of the ridge if we’re in the battleground area due to its density, which is typically where a system would track

[HockeyTx82]

I'm not a drinker but I'm thinking of taking a shot ever time someone mentions the SE Ridge or a SSW Event for the next week.

[Itryatgolf]

Joe Bastardi is scared of the 12z CMC

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1614679244457533442?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Cmc is a cold biased model. It's been that way for years lol. It can get a pattern correct sometimes but typically a cold biased. I don't put much stock in it at all

It nailed February 2021 ….

Before I'm excited, we have to get the epo to trend negative and or ao from the potential ssw event we may or may not be getting moving forward. I believe the ao went really negative in Feb 2021 if I recall

[Itryatgolf]

I'm not a drinker but I'm thinking of taking a shot ever time someone mentions the SE Ridge or a SSW Event for the next week.

You would be drunk as a skunk lol

[Cpv17]

Honestly I have no idea what’s going to happen. I’m not sold on anything right now. My best guess would be a return to seasonal temps with slightly higher than normal QPF chances. I’m honestly really conflicted about this upcoming pattern and don’t know what to believe.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Honestly I have no idea what’s going to happen. I’m not sold on anything right now. My best guess would be a return to seasonal temps with slightly higher than normal QPF chances. I’m honestly really conflicted about this upcoming pattern and don’t know what to believe.

I think it’s because you are hugging models and they are very different right now.

Pattern change is already in its initial stages.

[Iceresistance]

Cmc is a cold biased model. It's been that way for years lol. It can get a pattern correct sometimes but typically a cold biased. I don't put much stock in it at all

It nailed February 2021 ….

Before I'm excited, we have to get the epo to trend negative and or ao from the potential ssw event we may or may not be getting moving forward. I believe the ao went really negative in Feb 2021 if I recall

The AO went down to -6, which allowed the cold to reach Mexico.

[Quixotic]

Dec 13 event was held in place by a stubborn SE ridge. Like others have said, it’s a good thing sometimes.

[Ntxw]

Dec 13 event was held in place by a stubborn SE ridge. Like others have said, it’s a good thing sometimes.

SE ridge because a big low west of Baja is pumping it up is bad. SE ridge because trof is digging in the southwest is good. Winter storms.

December 2021 historic SE ridge and warmth spooked many in that pattern. But that same pattern in Feb (SE ridge) was a different result later in 2022.

[Cpv17]

Not sure how good Eric Webb is but on Twitter he’s saying we’re transitioning from a -PNA to +EPO and Jan+Feb could end up being really warm on the EC. Don’t know how this impacts us but I wouldn’t think it would be good with a +EPO.

[Ntxw]

Northern half of Texas and Oklahoma probably needs to watch 20th-25th for snow. ENS are increasing probability and the OPs 500h set up is getting closer.

[Iceresistance]

Northern half of Texas and Oklahoma probably needs to watch 20th-25th for snow. ENS are increasing probability and the OPs 500h set up is getting closer.

https://i.imgur.com/iwM7d9L.png

The 18z GFS now has a lot of snow just to my north and west, if it trends south and east, then I'm going to get dumped.


https://s3.gifyu.com/images/CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2023011518-GFS-SGP-winter-kuchsnow24-189-270-100.gif

[Ntxw]

Northern half of Texas and Oklahoma probably needs to watch 20th-25th for snow. ENS are increasing probability and the OPs 500h set up is getting closer.

https://i.imgur.com/iwM7d9L.png

The 18z GFS now has a lot of snow just to my north and west, if it trends south and east, then I'm going to get dumped.

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2023011518-GFS-SGP-winter-kuchsnow24-189-270-100.gif
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2023011518-GFS-SGP-winter-kuchsnow24-189-270-100.gif

GFS has been correcting east to the Euro in this range.

[harp]

Op GFS continues to suck eggs…

[Cpv17]

Op GFS continues to suck eggs…

Yeah I’m not expecting much of anything to come out of this as of right now. I don’t think it’s going to get cold enough. I’ll just take some seasonal temps and rain at this point.

[Cpv17]

I will say one thing, though. The Euro does look better than the GFS. I just don’t know if enough of that cold air out west will make it this way. The SE ridge does look to stay far enough away as of right now so that’s a good thing at least.

[Cpv17]

This looks pretty good but I personally wanna see it dig more and eject further south.



It’s so close.