Texas Winter 2022-2023

[bubba hotep]

Think this run of the GFS is getting ready for a cold delivery. Ridge north of Alaska and blocking developing to nudge the TPV southward. Need a system to break it open in the west.

Yep, coldest air on the planet shifting to this part of the globe... -50F temp anomalies now showing up, Euro Control/CFS has been hinting at this for 1st of Feb as well!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1674216000/1675252800-ljyeD0bc5xc.png

More importantly, look at the Pacific wave train undercutting that ridge. First impulse moving across Texas with s/w lined up out into the Pacific.

[orangeblood]

Think this run of the GFS is getting ready for a cold delivery. Ridge north of Alaska and blocking developing to nudge the TPV southward. Need a system to break it open in the west.

Yep, coldest air on the planet shifting to this part of the globe... -50F temp anomalies now showing up, Euro Control/CFS has been hinting at this for 1st of Feb as well!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1674216000/1675252800-ljyeD0bc5xc.png

More importantly, look at the Pacific wave train undercutting that ridge. First impulse moving across Texas with s/w lined up out into the Pacific.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023012012/gfs_z500_vort_namer_50.png

Really great look with plenty of cold air to tap into, not the case currently

[orangeblood]

GEFS Mean now going right towards Euro, a wide area is going to get a really good snowstorm out of this system.



quite the plains snowpack building when combining the two systems

[Cerlin]

I’m sorry, the 12z GFS drops 20 inches (10:1) in southern Cleveland County near where I’m at. Hello???

[rwfromkansas]

Glad to see Western Kansas getting a good snow in the GFS. They have been hurting for a decent snow for years as well.

This whole region has struggled, but TX finally cashed in last year and the year before in various locations. OK up to KS has not fully fixed their snow drought.

[Ntxw]

12z CMC is cold outbreak with its trough orientation.

[Iceresistance]

I’m sorry, the 12z GFS drops 20 inches (10:1) in southern Cleveland County near where I’m at. Hello???

Kuchera Ratio is over a foot!

Mean snowfall on the 12z GEFS is now 6-8 inches? What is this!?

ETA: 12z CMC now has a sharp cutoff with a LOT of snow, either between 4 to 10 inches of snow.

[Ntxw]

Here comes the Euro, where will it go? So far it has been the furthest south and most consistent for days relative to other models. It's been eyeing this system since nearly 240h out.

[Cerlin]

Surface temperatures haven’t changed too much from run to run but it appears the models are grasping the stronger cold nose above the surface and deeper ULL. Still can get some heavy snow at 34 degrees.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Here comes the Euro, where will it go? So far it has been the furthest south and most consistent for days relative to other models. It's been eyeing this system since nearly 240h out.

Sleet for us in NTX? I'm leery on snow-always seems to be sleet here.

[Ntxw]

Yeah could be sleet or mix. Hard to forecast the temperature profile in such systems. Still going to be quite marginal.

OTH Euro after is following the CMC with tilted trough to the west look. Cold outbreak incoming on it. Kind of funny the GFS has been slow to catch on these patterns but it has been constantly caving to other guidance one way or the other.

[Iceresistance]

Yeah could be sleet or mix. Hard to forecast the temperature profile in such systems. Still going to be quite marginal.

OTH Euro after is following the CMC with tilted trough to the west look. Cold outbreak incoming on it. Kind of funny the GFS has been slow to catch on these patterns but it has been constantly caving to other guidance one way or the other.

At this rate, the Euro may become king again if the snowfall verifies in Oklahoma and Northern Texas.

[Ntxw]

Yeah could be sleet or mix. Hard to forecast the temperature profile in such systems. Still going to be quite marginal.

OTH Euro after is following the CMC with tilted trough to the west look. Cold outbreak incoming on it. Kind of funny the GFS has been slow to catch on these patterns but it has been constantly caving to other guidance one way or the other.

At this rate, the Euro may become king again if the snowfall verifies in Oklahoma and Northern Texas.

I wouldn't quite say that. Euro gets the best skill scores so it's 5h depictions often wins. It's bad when you're using it for surface depiction during significant cold outbreaks. Its strength is often 500mb flow which when is not coupled with the surface well, you have issues.

[Brent]

I’m sorry, the 12z GFS drops 20 inches (10:1) in southern Cleveland County near where I’m at. Hello???

Yeah I can't believe this run but there's definitely potential no doubt

[Iceresistance]

I’m sorry, the 12z GFS drops 20 inches (10:1) in southern Cleveland County near where I’m at. Hello???

Yeah I can't believe this run but there's definitely potential no doubt

Same here, it was like "Not much of anything" to "Oh Jeez!" in an instant!

[Iceresistance]

CMC trending snowier for me!
(This is the 10:1 Ratio)


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/CMC-Trend.gif

[Brent]

I’m sorry, the 12z GFS drops 20 inches (10:1) in southern Cleveland County near where I’m at. Hello???

Yeah I can't believe this run but there's definitely potential no doubt

Same here, it was like "Not much of anything" to "Oh Jeez!" in an instant!

I mean I will say that the usually conservative TV station here has been kind of unusually hyped about it even yesterday saying it had real potential but still I'm definitely wait and see mode

[orangeblood]

Exciting next two weeks with hints of something big in week 2/3

Latest 12Z Euro ENS mean for next week...keep in mind a 50-100 mile shift either direction very likely at this range


And check out the Massive NE Pacific Ridge (5 Std Deviation) and North Atlantic Ridge on the Euro Control week 2, Major North America Arctic Outbreak signal

[Iceresistance]

This is what it's looking like, this is my location as a reference.

GFS: 10-13 inches
CMC (10:1): 6-8 inches
Euro: 4-6 inches
UKMET (10:1): 8-10 inches
ICON (10:1): 1-3 inches

Ensembles, this is the Mean snowfall
GEFS (10:1): 5-7 inches
CMCE (10:1): 6-10 inches
Euro-Ensembles (10:1): 6-8 inches (Thanks for the map orangeblood)

[rwfromkansas]

I think at this point it's pretty likely something good at least 5+ inches is coming to central or southern OK, exact location TBD.

The question becomes will it switch south any still? Sometimes we have seen major shifts at this point. It's only Friday after all.

I would like to see it shift south obviously, but it's also true that some snow to the north would be good IF we get a cold outbreak later.