It might peak as a Cat 3 before landfall…if it even moves onto land at all today. 85+ ACE here we come.
SIO: FREDDY - Remnants
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
It might peak as a Cat 3 before landfall…if it even moves onto land at all today. 85+ ACE here we come.
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- cycloneye
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
Bulletin of March 11 at 4:29 p.m. local time in Reunion (3.29 p.m. local time in Mayotte):
TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7
(FREDDY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 150 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 215 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 963 hPa.
Position on March 11 at 4 p.m. local time: 18.1 South / 37.3 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1905 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1030 km to the sector: SOUTH-WEST
Movement: Quasi-stationary.
System Information:
- Although having lost its presence, tropical cyclone FREDDY remained stable in intensified.
- FREDDY struggles to return to the lands of Mozambique and stays a stone's throw from the town of Quelimane, approximately 30 km from the maritime fringe of the Zambezi province.
- Since last night, Freddy has gradually slowed down his course and is continuing to move slowly towards the West-North-West, which should take him as close as possible to the coast of Mozambique. This slow movement, even temporarily the stationarity of the system, helps to further strengthen its area of influence on the coasts and the hinterland of the Zambezi province.
- According to the latest trajectory estimates, FREDDY should touch the coast of Mozambique at the end of next night, or even Sunday morning, at the level of the Zambezi province near the town of Quelimane. The timing is still very uncertain to date and could still change. At the time of its touchdown, FREDDY should remain at a power stage, most likely at the tropical cyclone stage.
- The weather conditions will therefore continue to deteriorate in the coming hours. Destructive or even devastating winds, very dangerous seas and heavy rains that could lead to landslides, are very likely near the landing zone, on the direct periphery of the system.
- During the weekend, FREDDY should sink inland, gradually weakening. But it will continue to generate heavy rains inland, not only over Mozambique but also over southern Malawi.
- In view of the uncertainty linked to the movement of the system, and its proximity to the coasts of the Zambezi province, the inhabitants of the area are strongly invited to keep themselves informed of the safety instructions given by the local authorities.
TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7
(FREDDY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 150 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 215 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 963 hPa.
Position on March 11 at 4 p.m. local time: 18.1 South / 37.3 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1905 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1030 km to the sector: SOUTH-WEST
Movement: Quasi-stationary.
System Information:
- Although having lost its presence, tropical cyclone FREDDY remained stable in intensified.
- FREDDY struggles to return to the lands of Mozambique and stays a stone's throw from the town of Quelimane, approximately 30 km from the maritime fringe of the Zambezi province.
- Since last night, Freddy has gradually slowed down his course and is continuing to move slowly towards the West-North-West, which should take him as close as possible to the coast of Mozambique. This slow movement, even temporarily the stationarity of the system, helps to further strengthen its area of influence on the coasts and the hinterland of the Zambezi province.
- According to the latest trajectory estimates, FREDDY should touch the coast of Mozambique at the end of next night, or even Sunday morning, at the level of the Zambezi province near the town of Quelimane. The timing is still very uncertain to date and could still change. At the time of its touchdown, FREDDY should remain at a power stage, most likely at the tropical cyclone stage.
- The weather conditions will therefore continue to deteriorate in the coming hours. Destructive or even devastating winds, very dangerous seas and heavy rains that could lead to landslides, are very likely near the landing zone, on the direct periphery of the system.
- During the weekend, FREDDY should sink inland, gradually weakening. But it will continue to generate heavy rains inland, not only over Mozambique but also over southern Malawi.
- In view of the uncertainty linked to the movement of the system, and its proximity to the coasts of the Zambezi province, the inhabitants of the area are strongly invited to keep themselves informed of the safety instructions given by the local authorities.
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
Still quite the disconnect between the GFS and Euro... GFS still thinking Freddy is going to re-emerge and linger for another 10 days. Euro has slowly caveated to that idea but still moves it inland.
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
I think Freddy has surpassed Ioke’s ACE record now. CSU’s real time tropical cyclone page says just under 82, but since it’s using original and non-updated BT information, it’s slightly low.
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
I'm hearing reports from YT that Freddy has stalled just offshore, is that true?
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
https://twitter.com/Firinga_le_site/status/1634576344326471681
Impressive but deadly major hurricane.
Impressive but deadly major hurricane.
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
Hurricane2022 wrote:https://twitter.com/Firinga_le_site/status/1634576344326471681?t=SoF88_wIt1mrVrYX0tZxSg&s=19
Impressive but deadly major hurricane.
This is what I translated
DISASTER SCENARIO, for the province of Zambézia in Mozambique and the city of Quelimane! #FREDDY with gusts > 200 km/h remains almost stationary on the Mozambican coast...
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
ADT has Freddy at a Cat 3 Major Hurricane, T5.5 at 102 knots.
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
Freddy continues to improve even as it approaches landfall. What a strange storm. It has over performed so many times!
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
Hurricane2022 wrote:https://twitter.com/Firinga_le_site/status/1634576344326471681?t=SoF88_wIt1mrVrYX0tZxSg&s=19
Impressive but deadly major hurricane.
Sadly for it to happen it will be stalled in the area for days the damage done is going to be catastrophic to the region and many more people will have died from it.
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
Making landfall.
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For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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- cycloneye
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
The landfall Is official.
Bulletin of March 11 at 10:47 p.m. local time in Reunion (9.47 p.m. local time in Mayotte):
TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7
(FREDDY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 150 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 215 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 963 hPa.
Position on March 11 at 10 p.m. local: 17.8 South / 37.1 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1930 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1020 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: NORTH-WEST, at 6 km/h.
System Information:
- FREDDY landed on the Mozambican coast around 9:15 p.m. Reunion time (8:15 p.m. Mayotte time) about 30 km east of the town of Quelimane in the province of Zambézia while being at the tropical cyclone stage with a slightly increased intensity (winds at 155 km/h at sea with gusts at 220 km/h) over the hours preceding the arrival on land.
- The cyclone is now interacting with the land and is beginning a weakening phase which will increase as it re-enters the land.
- The weather conditions are critical near the center with devastating winds, intense rains and a very dangerous sea state associated with marine flooding. These extreme conditions are more durable given the low speed of movement of the cyclone.
- During the weekend, FREDDY is sinking inland but will continue to generate very heavy rains inland, not only over Mozambique but also over southern Malawi. these rains are likely to cause widespread flooding and landslides in mountainous areas.
- In the course of next week, an exit at sea of FREDDY is possible but the environment in which the system should then evolve does not appear favorable to a frank re-intensification.
TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7
(FREDDY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 150 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 215 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 963 hPa.
Position on March 11 at 10 p.m. local: 17.8 South / 37.1 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1930 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1020 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: NORTH-WEST, at 6 km/h.
System Information:
- FREDDY landed on the Mozambican coast around 9:15 p.m. Reunion time (8:15 p.m. Mayotte time) about 30 km east of the town of Quelimane in the province of Zambézia while being at the tropical cyclone stage with a slightly increased intensity (winds at 155 km/h at sea with gusts at 220 km/h) over the hours preceding the arrival on land.
- The cyclone is now interacting with the land and is beginning a weakening phase which will increase as it re-enters the land.
- The weather conditions are critical near the center with devastating winds, intense rains and a very dangerous sea state associated with marine flooding. These extreme conditions are more durable given the low speed of movement of the cyclone.
- During the weekend, FREDDY is sinking inland but will continue to generate very heavy rains inland, not only over Mozambique but also over southern Malawi. these rains are likely to cause widespread flooding and landslides in mountainous areas.
- In the course of next week, an exit at sea of FREDDY is possible but the environment in which the system should then evolve does not appear favorable to a frank re-intensification.
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
Record after record is falling like dominoes!
Now, the only other question is this: How far can he make it more impossible to break again?
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
Based on images I've seen, I think it was about 105 kt at this landfall. Pressure was likely around 960 mb.
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
CrazyC83 wrote:Based on images I've seen, I think it was about 105 kt at this landfall. Pressure was likely around 960 mb.
I was thinking 100 knots at landfall, but based on improvement in images up to landfall, I'm in agreement with you for 105 knots.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
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Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone
While sustained winds have likely gone down, gusts may likely have stayed the same or maybe even increased. Gusts come down from the storm and if the upper level storm has intensified, the mixing down of gusts may also have strengthened.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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