Texas Spring 2023

[Edwards Limestone]

Line out to the west. Recent history says that outflow/dry air will mess things up real nice.

Sorry for negativity…

[Edwards Limestone]

Line out to the west. Recent history says that outflow/dry air will mess things up real nice.

Sorry for negativity…

Narrator: it happened again. Thanks a lot outflow boundary.

SA force field is undefeated. I don’t even know why I get excited. There must be so much dry air lurking…I don’t see how we get 1-2” by Saturday. We struggle to even get 0.3” with these events.

NWS tweet earlier jinxed it bad.

[Iceresistance]

Line out to the west. Recent history says that outflow/dry air will mess things up real nice.

Sorry for negativity…

Narrator: it happened again. Thanks a lot outflow boundary.

SA force field is undefeated. I don’t even know why I get excited. There must be so much dry air lurking…I don’t see how we get 1-2” by Saturday. We struggle to even get 0.3” with these events.

NWS tweet earlier jinxed it bad.

I'm not sure about that, showers are increasing over San Antonio

[Cpv17]

Bad trends on the mesoscale models for the coastal plains. Most of the rain now looks to be between Houston and Austin. Columbus and Brenham area could see a good soaking. My area will be doing good to get 2” from the looks of it.

[South Texas Storms]

Line out to the west. Recent history says that outflow/dry air will mess things up real nice.

Sorry for negativity…

Narrator: it happened again. Thanks a lot outflow boundary.

SA force field is undefeated. I don’t even know why I get excited. There must be so much dry air lurking…I don’t see how we get 1-2” by Saturday. We struggle to even get 0.3” with these events.

NWS tweet earlier jinxed it bad.

The front wasn't expected to produce much rain in SA. We will need to wait for the southwesterly disturbances to arrive behind the front for our rain from this event. Tomorrow is looking like a wet day in SA and the Hill Country.

[Iceresistance]

Warmer Temperatures then higher than normal rainfall, does this ring the bells for Severe Storms?


https://s2.gifyu.com/images/814temp.new.gif


https://s2.gifyu.com/images/814prcp.new.gif


And, yes. This might do the trick


https://s2.gifyu.com/images/precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours-1f85be5201c36c4ca.png

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/jefflindner1/status/1643585895029780483

[South Texas Storms]

Bad trends on the mesoscale models for the coastal plains. Most of the rain now looks to be between Houston and Austin. Columbus and Brenham area could see a good soaking. My area will be doing good to get 2” from the looks of it.

12z HRRR has your area easily seeing 2 inches of rain. I'm still expecting widespread 2-4 inches for much of southeast TX.

[bubba hotep]

SOI continues to crash.

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1643616980375617538

[Cpv17]

Bad trends on the mesoscale models for the coastal plains. Most of the rain now looks to be between Houston and Austin. Columbus and Brenham area could see a good soaking. My area will be doing good to get 2” from the looks of it.

12z HRRR has your area easily seeing 2 inches of rain. I'm still expecting widespread 2-4 inches for much of southeast TX.

I didn’t look at that run yet but from what I saw earlier this morning on the other models it looked to be more focused NW of me.

[Cpv17]

Bad trends on the mesoscale models for the coastal plains. Most of the rain now looks to be between Houston and Austin. Columbus and Brenham area could see a good soaking. My area will be doing good to get 2” from the looks of it.

12z HRRR has your area easily seeing 2 inches of rain. I'm still expecting widespread 2-4 inches for much of southeast TX.

I didn’t look at that run yet but from what I saw earlier this morning on the other models it looked to be more focused NW of me. Friday looked a bit more promising for me.

[Edwards Limestone]

Line out to the west. Recent history says that outflow/dry air will mess things up real nice.

Sorry for negativity…

Narrator: it happened again. Thanks a lot outflow boundary.

SA force field is undefeated. I don’t even know why I get excited. There must be so much dry air lurking…I don’t see how we get 1-2” by Saturday. We struggle to even get 0.3” with these events.

NWS tweet earlier jinxed it bad.

I'm not sure about that, showers are increasing over San Antonio

Sunny and windy now. We'll see about tomorrow. EWX office still seems bullish with their totals- I'm in wait and see mode after so many outflow robberies. Could easily see this setting up to the east of us and getting railroaded by drier air on the backside.

[South Texas Storms]

Narrator: it happened again. Thanks a lot outflow boundary.

SA force field is undefeated. I don’t even know why I get excited. There must be so much dry air lurking…I don’t see how we get 1-2” by Saturday. We struggle to even get 0.3” with these events.

NWS tweet earlier jinxed it bad.

I'm not sure about that, showers are increasing over San Antonio

Sunny and windy now. We'll see about tomorrow. EWX office still seems bullish with their totals- I'm in wait and see mode after so many outflow robberies. Could easily see this setting up to the east of us and getting railroaded by drier air on the backside.

https://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/graphicast/4.png?480d0d2dc251b7204cf5d7476778b6d6

I understand your skepticism (my dad is the same way ) but we should be entering into a wetter pattern with El Nino developing. It definitely looks like the heaviest rain will set up east of SA tomorrow, but there's still a good chance that your area will still see at least 1 inch of rain from this event.

[bubba hotep]

18z 3K NAM looks good for a lot of Texas

[jasons2k]

The rain event has begun. I'm up to a half an inch of rain (0.50) so far just north of Houston. Some places in Texas are about to get a lot of rain.

[South Texas Storms]

The rain event has begun. I'm up to a half an inch of rain (0.50) so far just north of Houston. Some places in Texas are about to get a lot of rain.

Yeah it started with a bang here in northwest Houston a few hours ago. Got lots of pea size hail with the first storm.

[txtwister78]

Looks like a train of storms (some severe) is setting up just SE of SA tonight. Hopefully we can get some development overnight further west as the HRRR is hinting at. 0z models remain optimistic for some much-needed rain tomorrow afternoon. Still like 1-3 inches across SA metro with lighter amounts further NW into the HC.

[Edwards Limestone]

A true coastal plains event. Glad someone is getting something.
Convection having trouble sustaining on the western side (west side of I-35).

[Edwards Limestone]

Radar filling in some now!

[South Texas Storms]

Radar filling in some now!

A beautiful soaker of a day for much of south and central TX today. Enjoy!