DorkyMcDorkface wrote:wxman57 wrote:I added the University of Arizona's forecast. They're forecasting a very active season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 majors. ACE of 160 or so. Note that they predicted last year's quiet season (14/7/3 vs. actual 14/8/2) We shall see if El Nino has no impact.
They must really be hedging on potential resistance to the Niño from SSTs, as those are very bullish numbers, especially since they're anticipating this Niño to become particularly strong as well:Tropical Atlantic SSTs are forecast to be the highest since 2010 and even hotter than 2020, and for the Nino 3.4 region,
forecast SSTs are among the highest. The high Nino SSTs should help bring down hurricane activities; it
will be an interesting battle between the two sides this summer.
I think the University of Arizona's specific methodology did note that they do tend to rely quite a bit on sst anomaly configuration. It would be rather interesting to see how the Atlantic fares in a year that is El Nino, but combined with 2010/2020-level warmth. Past El Nino years like 2006 may have gotten a +AMO by peak season, but they were nowhere near the levels of years like 2020 or 2010.