ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

90-Day SOI is now in the negatives. Daily SOI is on a 4 day streak of -20 or lower.

El Nino pattern is visible in the SPAC. Strong mid latitude systems passing near Tahiti.

[hurricanes1234]

From La Niña in September 2022 to developing El Niño in May 2023.

[dexterlabio]

Crashing SOI tells me that this brewing El Nino is turning into a coupled event (ocean+atmosphere)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1657707743082364929




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1657707745896722434

[jconsor]

I would recommend being wary/skeptical of MJO forecasts showing a shift of the main negative velocity potential cell (and thus a WWB) into the Eastern and Central Pacific. This has been a persistent model bias amongst multiple ensembles (both GEFS and EPS) since Apr.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1657735372745449474




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1657740534364995586




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1657744706074292225

[jconsor]

Further discussion on the expected long-range MJO/Velocity Potential pattern for Jun and how it may hinder El Nino intensification/spreading of anomalously warm SSTs into the Central Pacific.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1657753394419826695




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1657755710329876483




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1657756672515887104




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1657761973277163522

[cycloneye]

Niño 3.4 is up to +0.5C at the weekly update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Through July, latest CFS shows the low level bias primarily focused in the far WPAC compared to the DL.

[wxman57]

With the cool PDO, there is a lot of quite cool water moving south down the west U.S. coast right toward the Nino 3.4 area. How is that going to moderate El Nino this season?

[Kingarabian]

With the cool PDO, there is a lot of quite cool water moving south down the west U.S. coast right toward the Nino 3.4 area. How is that going to moderate El Nino this season?

The EPAC is reliant on a +PDO/+PMM for a high ACE high TC count combo. I think the season will behave similar to 2009 but there's also a chance it doesn't reach that level of activity as the PDO rapidly warmed between May and June 2009 and we've yet to see a similar response.

Also the active EPAC = in-active Atlantic case probably won't apply this season -- considering what's happening locally in the Atlantic and the negating factors for the EPAC that are mentioned above.

[zzzh]

West coast warms up while central subtropical Pacific cools down.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1658206543882362906

[dexterlabio]

https://i.imgur.com/RoVlQQ3.png
West coast warms up while central subtropical Pacific cools down.

Maybe the start of the PDO switching positive in response to the developing El Niño?

[Yellow Evan]

yes but also due to the Rex block pattern off the west coast.

[jconsor]

Thread discussing potential analog years based on moderate to strong east-weighted El Nino, -PDO, warm tropical Atlantic/Canary Current and Wet Sahel. The juxtaposition of relatively strong El Nino on the one hand and -PDO, very warm Atlantic and wet Sahel on the other hand (which generally don't go together with El Nino) is rather rare. Need to go pretty far back in time to find appropriate analogs IMHO:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1658097906266587137




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1658131985888411649




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1658133591484686336

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1658206543882362906

If we had westerly anomalies in the CPAC instead of above average trades, and light trades instead of westerly anomalies in the far eastern Pacific, then Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 would easily warm.

[cycloneye]

Things look prime for a strong El Niño with those numbers on May 16.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1658498302613045254

[NotSparta]

Things look prime for a strong El Niño with those numbers on May 16.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1658498302613045254

Thanks to global warming these values probably aren't as impressive as it seems but it's still a pretty speedy start to things

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Euro remains very bullish with the upcoming WWB, showing it persisting into at least early June. Pretty sure it's been the most aggressive with this scenario.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1658944824974929920