ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Yellow Evan]

Mawar’s circulation will amplify westerlies in the NHEM deep tropics. Will help in +NPMM development at the very least.

[Kingarabian]

I wonder what the PDO reading will be for the month of May.

Less negative but still negative. Waters off NW CONUS have warmed. Waters east of Japan are too warm, waters north of Hawaii are too warm, and waters SW of Baja are too cool.

[Yellow Evan]

Daily index still has PDO of -.8. Ridging off BC will keep the warmth there in place for a while but until the subtropical storm track gets active again it’s hard to see a full on reversal. It’ll probably reverse sometime next winter.

[Ntxw]

I think we'll see something like 2009 (NCEI version) where the PDO will pop positive just a few times near peak +ENSO. PDO is influenced by ENSO so the stronger/more coupled the event the greater the rise.

[Iceresistance]

That -SOI is something else, today’s value is at -40!

[cycloneye]

The SOI is going down at a good clip and that is a big sign that the atmosphere may be coupeling with El Niño.

[Iceresistance]

The SOI is going down at a good clip and that is a big sign that the atmosphere may be coupeling with El Niño.

https://i.imgur.com/ZZVDs0F.jpg

Daily SOI at -61!?


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-05-23-9.14.11-AM.png

[Kingarabian]

Impressive SOI numbers. Nothing to suggest that these SOI numbers are skewered in anyway too.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Yeah it appears we're starting to get atmospheric Niño coupling now. If an ENSO standing wave hasn't established itself yet I'd imagine it will soon.

[LarryWx]

Today's SOI came in at ~-26. I'm very roughly estimating the next four days to come in at -35, -57 (lowest daily since 2/6/2010), -50, and -33 followed by a rapid rise. We appear to be looking at ~-12 for May as a whole, a solid indicator for an upcoming Nino of difficult to predict magnitude.

Yesterday's was -43 and today's as already noted is -62, which is the lowest since 2/6/10 and 12th lowest since dailies started in June of 1991. The seasons since 1991-2 with the 11 lower SOI dailies were 2009-10, 2006-7, 2004-5, 1997-8, and 1991-2. Of these five seasons, one was super strong Nino, two were strong Nino, and two were weak Nino. So all over the board in terms of El Niño strength.

Though today will end up the low of this stretch, the next two days will still be strong -SOIs (likely sub -25) before a further rise.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1661030424095735808

[Iceresistance]

Today's SOI came in at ~-26. I'm very roughly estimating the next four days to come in at -35, -57 (lowest daily since 2/6/2010), -50, and -33 followed by a rapid rise. We appear to be looking at ~-12 for May as a whole, a solid indicator for an upcoming Nino of difficult to predict magnitude.

Yesterday's was -43 and today's as already noted is -62, which is the lowest since 2/6/10 and 12th lowest since dailies started in June of 1991. The seasons since 1991-2 with the 11 lower SOI dailies were 2009-10, 2006-7, 2004-5, 1997-8, and 1991-2. Of these five seasons, one was super strong Nino, two were strong Nino, and two were weak Nino. So all over the board in terms of El Niño strength.

Though today will end up the low of this stretch, the next two days will still be strong -SOIs (likely sub -25) before a further rise.

If you can remember, what was the lowest daily SOI ever? In the hundreds?

[LarryWx]

Today's SOI came in at ~-26. I'm very roughly estimating the next four days to come in at -35, -57 (lowest daily since 2/6/2010), -50, and -33 followed by a rapid rise. We appear to be looking at ~-12 for May as a whole, a solid indicator for an upcoming Nino of difficult to predict magnitude.

Yesterday's was -43 and today's as already noted is -62, which is the lowest since 2/6/10 and 12th lowest since dailies started in June of 1991. The seasons since 1991-2 with the 11 lower SOI dailies were 2009-10, 2006-7, 2004-5, 1997-8, and 1991-2. Of these five seasons, one was super strong Nino, two were strong Nino, and two were weak Nino. So all over the board in terms of El Niño strength.

Though today will end up the low of this stretch, the next two days will still be strong -SOIs (likely sub -25) before a further rise.

If you can remember, what was the lowest daily SOI ever? In the hundreds?

I know of daily records only back to summer of 1991. But the lowest back just to then was still way down at -85.71 on 5/1/1997!

Now, monthlies go way back into the 1800s. Whereas the lowest monthly back to 1991 was only down to -29.5, it was way down near -39 in 5/1896! Also, they're were -38/-34 in 4-5/1905 and -31/-36 in 1-2/1983. With monthlies that low, I'd bet there were dailies even lower than -85.71 then.

[LarryWx]

Today's SOI came in at ~-26. I'm very roughly estimating the next four days to come in at -35, -57 (lowest daily since 2/6/2010), -50, and -33 followed by a rapid rise. We appear to be looking at ~-12 for May as a whole, a solid indicator for an upcoming Nino of difficult to predict magnitude.

Yesterday's was -43 and today's as already noted is -62, which is the lowest since 2/6/10 and 12th lowest since dailies started in June of 1991. The seasons since 1991-2 with the 11 lower SOI dailies were 2009-10, 2006-7, 2004-5, 1997-8, and 1991-2. Of these five seasons, one was super strong Nino, two were strong Nino, and two were weak Nino. So all over the board in terms of El Niño strength.

Though today will end up the low of this stretch, the next two days will still be strong -SOIs (likely sub -25) before a further rise.

 I was wrong about yesterday being the low of the stretch. Today's -65 was even lower than yesterday's -62! Today's -65 is the 7th lowest daily SOI on record (back to June of 1991). The only ones lower were five days in 1997-8 and one day in 2009-10 (2/5/2010). And keep in mind it is only May 24th, meaning the current Nino is just starting!

**Edit: Though nothing like the rarity now occurring, it now looks like there will be another strong -SOI dip this month with it likely centered on 5/31 near -34.

[LarryWx]

We have still another very strong -SOI today with -45.

[Yellow Evan]

During April 1983 when multiple TC’s passed close to Tahiti is when I’d wager the daily record was set.

[Kingarabian]

These probably have to be some of the lowest SOI numbers on record without TC help.

[Monsoonjr99]

Like many before, the devil is in the details with this ENSO event.

Interesting to see if predictions of a stronger El Niño verify considering some of the factors going against it: -PDO, warm Atlantic, as well as thinning subsurface warmth as pointed out by Mark Sudduth in a recent video. The MJO for now seems to be taking its sweet time, though in June I imagine it should be in position for the anticipated WWB to give this event another kick.

[Yellow Evan]

MJO has been over the Pacific for weeks and the subsurface has not been thining

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Yeahhhh I wouldn't really call this "thinning". More like "holding steady" if anything.