Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=Near normal season - 12-17 named storms
I think the main takeaway is that while it's a universally established law that El Ninos aren't favorable for Atlantic activity, this particular year has a variety of unusual factors that have the potential to make this El Nino year somewhat different from many other El Nino years that we may think of, whether it's 1997, 2002, 2006, or 2009.
"Unusual factors" as in extremely warm sst anomalies, a strong WAM...you get the idea. The Atlantic may not be as vulnerable to the detrimental impacts of El Nino as it might be otherwise; it has a sort of "defensive shield" at its disposal, sort to say.
"Unusual factors" as in extremely warm sst anomalies, a strong WAM...you get the idea. The Atlantic may not be as vulnerable to the detrimental impacts of El Nino as it might be otherwise; it has a sort of "defensive shield" at its disposal, sort to say.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=Near normal season - 12-17 named storms
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=12-17 named storms
SFLcane wrote:That range is not a forecast and offers a huge range of possibilities.
1. MH: Since 1851, 123 of the 172 years or 72% of them had 1-4 MH. Since 2000, 16 of the 23 years (70%) were in that range. Therefore, I don't consider 1-4 MH a forecast.
2. H: 85 of 172 since 1851 (49%) and 14 of 23 (61%) years since 2000 have had 5-9 H. That is better but is still hardly a forecast to me.
3. NS: Since 1851, 34 of 172 (20%) and 12 of 23 (52%) since 2000 had 12-17 TS/STS. That is even better and qualifies as a forecast based on 12-17 covering only 20% of years since 1851 though still not based on the years since 2000.
In general, I consider it a forecast when the range covers no more than 1/3 and preferably no more than 1/4 of possible outcomes. Anything covering 50%+ of possibilities is certainly not a forecast.
However, semantics may come into play here since NOAA calls this an "outlook" rather than a "forecast". Whereas I overall agree with Adrian that this isn't a "forecast", it might be fair to call it what they're calling it, an "outlook".
Per Oxford, one definition of "outlook" is "the prospect for the future".
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=12-17 named storms
LarryWx wrote:SFLcane wrote:That range is not a forecast and offers a huge range of possibilities.
1. MH: Since 1851, 123 of the 172 years or 72% of them had 1-4 MH. Since 2000, 16 of the 23 years (70%) were in that range. Therefore, I don't consider 1-4 MH a forecast.
2. H: 85 of 172 since 1851 (49%) and 14 of 23 (61%) years since 2000 have had 5-9 H. That is better but is still hardly a forecast to me.
3. NS: Since 1851, 34 of 172 (20%) and 12 of 23 (52%) since 2000 had 12-17 TS/STS. That is even better and qualifies as a forecast based on 12-17 covering only 20% of years since 1851.
In general, I consider it a forecast when the range covers no more than 1/3 and preferably no more than 1/4 of possible outcomes. Anything covering 50%+ of possibilities is certainly not a forecast.
However, semantics may come into play here since NOAA calls this an "outlook" rather than a "forecast". Whereas I overall agree with Adrian that this isn't a "forecast", it might be fair to call it what they're calling it, an "outlook".
Per Oxford, one definition of "outlook" is "the prospect for the future".
You cannot really trust the database prior to around 1950. Without satellite and recon, the only time major hurricanes were identified was when they struck land before then, or when the unfortunate ship was hit (and survived to tell the tale).
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=12-17 named storms
wxman57 wrote:LarryWx wrote:SFLcane wrote:That range is not a forecast and offers a huge range of possibilities.
1. MH: Since 1851, 123 of the 172 years or 72% of them had 1-4 MH. Since 2000, 16 of the 23 years (70%) were in that range. Therefore, I don't consider 1-4 MH a forecast.
2. H: 85 of 172 since 1851 (49%) and 14 of 23 (61%) years since 2000 have had 5-9 H. That is better but is still hardly a forecast to me.
3. NS: Since 1851, 34 of 172 (20%) and 12 of 23 (52%) since 2000 had 12-17 TS/STS. That is even better and qualifies as a forecast based on 12-17 covering only 20% of years since 1851.
In general, I consider it a forecast when the range covers no more than 1/3 and preferably no more than 1/4 of possible outcomes. Anything covering 50%+ of possibilities is certainly not a forecast.
However, semantics may come into play here since NOAA calls this an "outlook" rather than a "forecast". Whereas I overall agree with Adrian that this isn't a "forecast", it might be fair to call it what they're calling it, an "outlook".
Per Oxford, one definition of "outlook" is "the prospect for the future".
You cannot really trust the database prior to around 1950. Without satellite and recon, the only time major hurricanes were identified was when they struck land before then, or when the unfortunate ship was hit (and survived to tell the tale).
Fair enough. Based on 1950+ stats, NOAA with those very wide ranges is not making a forecast but them calling it an "outlook" is fair game I suppose.
Since 1950, 33 of 73 (45%) years have had 12-17 storms.
Since 1950, 43 of 73 (59%) have had 5-9 H.
Since 1950, 55 of 73 (75%) have had 1-4 MH.
Regarding the MH outlook of 1-4:
If I were to pick a number from 1 to 100, asked someone to guess it, allowed for 75 guesses, and one of their 75 guesses turned out to be the number I picked, I wouldn't exactly be impressed about them guessing the number!
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- ouragans
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=Near normal season - 12-17 named storms
TWC had published its outlook on April 13
TS 15
H 7
MH 3
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... k-atlantic
Do they publish an update at the beginning of the season? I don't remember
TS 15
H 7
MH 3
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... k-atlantic
Do they publish an update at the beginning of the season? I don't remember
Last edited by ouragans on Fri May 26, 2023 5:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- ouragans
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=Near normal season - 12-17 named storms
INSMET (Cuban Weather Institute) had their outlook posted on May 12
TS 11
H 7
http://rcm.insmet.cu/index.php/rcm/announcement/view/22
TS 11
H 7
http://rcm.insmet.cu/index.php/rcm/announcement/view/22
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Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
- ouragans
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=Near normal season - 12-17 named storms
SMN (Mexico Weather Service) had their outlook. No date found
TS 10-16
H 3-7
MH 2-4
https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/ciclones- ... cales-2023
TS 10-16
H 3-7
MH 2-4
https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/ciclones- ... cales-2023
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Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=12-17 named storms
LarryWx wrote:SFLcane wrote:That range is not a forecast and offers a huge range of possibilities.
1. MH: Since 1851, 123 of the 172 years or 72% of them had 1-4 MH. Since 2000, 16 of the 23 years (70%) were in that range. Therefore, I don't consider 1-4 MH a forecast.
2. H: 85 of 172 since 1851 (49%) and 14 of 23 (61%) years since 2000 have had 5-9 H. That is better but is still hardly a forecast to me.
3. NS: Since 1851, 34 of 172 (20%) and 12 of 23 (52%) since 2000 had 12-17 TS/STS. That is even better and qualifies as a forecast based on 12-17 covering only 20% of years since 1851 though still not based on the years since 2000.
In general, I consider it a forecast when the range covers no more than 1/3 and preferably no more than 1/4 of possible outcomes. Anything covering 50%+ of possibilities is certainly not a forecast.
However, semantics may come into play here since NOAA calls this an "outlook" rather than a "forecast". Whereas I overall agree with Adrian that this isn't a "forecast", it might be fair to call it what they're calling it, an "outlook".
Per Oxford, one definition of "outlook" is "the prospect for the future".
I agree with you both. Semantics aside, I would have had greater respect for an outlook that simply stated an outright admission of: "We (NOAA) frankly have no idea of the type of season that 2023 will present".
Furthermore, I think that an "outlook" that made an effort to signal an enhanced risk of tropical genesis or storm track within the very large Atlantic basin would at least offer some basis for even participating in any "upcoming season" overview. Ultimately if the science is simply too weak to attempt foresight into regions or zones of increased activity or risk, and so unprecise to more narrowly foretell how much tropical activity is anticipated for the upcoming season..... then perhaps NOAA (and other agencies or private entities) should simply back out of the long-range prediction business and just stick to short term forecasts, monitoring, warnings, and their "it only takes one" mantra. Doing otherwise simply results in anticipated press releases such as this to fall flat and imply minimal confidence in the long-range exercise as a whole.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- AnnularCane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Well...ummm...errr... I'm sure they didn't pick those numbers lightly?
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
They are not alone as the University of Arizona also has high numbers.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5
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- wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5
Seems the UKMET office is discounting the El Nino and their shear prediction for the Caribbean may be too low.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5
wxman57 wrote:Seems the UKMET office is discounting the El Nino and their shear prediction for the Caribbean may be too low.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1662113563274625024
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5
wxman57 wrote:Seems the UKMET office is discounting the El Nino and their shear prediction for the Caribbean may be too low.
But the UKMET has ASO of +1.84 in 3.4 as of their May forecast per this:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table
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- wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5
LarryWx wrote:wxman57 wrote:Seems the UKMET office is discounting the El Nino and their shear prediction for the Caribbean may be too low.
But the UKMET has ASO of +1.84 in 3.4 as of their May forecast per this:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table
Yeah, their forecast doesn't make sense.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5
IMO, UKMET sees activity more in the subtropics from an active WAM that travel from MDR to north of the Caribbean, than in the Caribbean proper with El Niño around.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5
wxman57 wrote:Seems the UKMET office is discounting the El Nino and their shear prediction for the Caribbean may be too low.
Noaa also hints at the possibilty of lower shear across the Caribbean.
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