2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Interesting to note that the Atlantic is already beating the EPAC by 2 storms thus far this year. Not an extremely common thing to see the Atlantic this far ahead by the very start of its official hurricane season.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Dr. Levi Cowan recently uploaded a video containing his thoughts regarding this year's season. Skip to around 4:36.
Link: https://youtu.be/s7mNmx7wTkY
Link: https://youtu.be/s7mNmx7wTkY
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Dr. Levi Cowan recently uploaded a video containing his thoughts regarding this year's season. Skip to around 4:36.
https://youtu.be/s7mNmx7wTkY
Very interesting to see 1951 being used as an analog year. One could only imagine what a 1951-like year would look like in our modern-day environment
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Here is Mark Sudduth's 22:53 long video about the 2023 hurricane season.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvq2Ao9KgfU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvq2Ao9KgfU
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Category5Kaiju wrote:DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Dr. Levi Cowan recently uploaded a video containing his thoughts regarding this year's season. Skip to around 4:36.
https://youtu.be/s7mNmx7wTkY
Very interesting to see 1951 being used as an analog year. One could only imagine what a 1951-like year would look like in our modern-day environment
Interestingly 1951 did not see overly strong trades, and I believe that 2023 currently has a warmer Atlantic than 1951. I don't think people are taking the cold PDO in to account enough in conjunction with the El Niño. It is going to confine the northern reach of the warmth. I had looked for years similar to this one and couldn't find one
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Dr. Levi Cowan recently uploaded a video containing his thoughts regarding this year's season. Skip to around 4:36.
https://youtu.be/s7mNmx7wTkY
Even considering the different time period and climatology, we're going into this season with a more favorable sst configuration than the one shown for 1951 by Levi. It's going to be interesting to see if conventional wisdom prevails and the Atlantic is largely shut down by El Nino, or if we're going to see something anomalous occur. Models do hint to a more favorable Atlantic despite depicting a moderate/strong El Nino occurring by fall.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Thread about sst anomales with past El Niño years vs 2023.
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1664962149536366593
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1664962549132009473
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1664962959695544321
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1664963690485915657
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1664962149536366593
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1664962549132009473
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1664962959695544321
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1664963690485915657
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Dr. Levi Cowan recently uploaded a video containing his thoughts regarding this year's season. Skip to around 4:36.
https://youtu.be/s7mNmx7wTkY
Great discussion by Dr Levi, 1951 could very well be the best analog year for 2023. So UKMET & Euro forecasts may not be so crazy after all.
Take into effect that SSTs across the Atlantic MDR are warmer due to rising temps will no doubt make me think that this year could be even busier than 1951.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
I think 2023 is going to be an interesting case study to see how much ENSO can suppress the Atlantic on its own. Pretty much every other indicator supports a well above average to hyperactive season.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
CyclonicFury wrote:I think 2023 is going to be an interesting case study to see how much ENSO can suppress the Atlantic on its own. Pretty much every other indicator supports a well above average to hyperactive season.
Hyperactive season?
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
cycloneye wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:I think 2023 is going to be an interesting case study to see how much ENSO can suppress the Atlantic on its own. Pretty much every other indicator supports a well above average to hyperactive season.
Hyperactive season?
The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the Atlantic is commonly associated with hyperactive seasons. However, I doubt 2023 comes anywhere close to the hyperactive threshold because of El Nino. I went with 100 ACE as a prediction, but the uncertainty seems much higher than usual. Models such as the CanSIPS showing low shear in the Caribbean only adds more uncertainty to the question.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
CyclonicFury wrote:cycloneye wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:I think 2023 is going to be an interesting case study to see how much ENSO can suppress the Atlantic on its own. Pretty much every other indicator supports a well above average to hyperactive season.
Hyperactive season?
The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the Atlantic is commonly associated with hyperactive seasons. However, I doubt 2023 comes anywhere close to the hyperactive threshold because of El Nino. I went with 100 ACE as a prediction, but the uncertainty seems much higher than usual. Models such as the CanSIPS showing low shear in the Caribbean only adds more uncertainty to the question.
The MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf have cooled off a decent amount the past few days.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Not going to bother copying and pasting the contents of the PDF here because it’ll take up a lot of space, but here are my thoughts on the season:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YcaTbv ... sp=sharing
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YcaTbv ... sp=sharing
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/TorenWX/status/1664789024584658944
Question: It looks like compared to 1-2 months ago, the current Atlantic SSTA pattern has transformed from a classic +AMO horseshoe to an "all warm" pattern, with waters ESE of the Carolinas being the most notable. Could this hamper seasonal activity by creating more shear over MDR?
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
CyclonicFury wrote:cycloneye wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:I think 2023 is going to be an interesting case study to see how much ENSO can suppress the Atlantic on its own. Pretty much every other indicator supports a well above average to hyperactive season.
Hyperactive season?
The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the Atlantic is commonly associated with hyperactive seasons. However, I doubt 2023 comes anywhere close to the hyperactive threshold because of El Nino. I went with 100 ACE as a prediction, but the uncertainty seems much higher than usual. Models such as the CanSIPS showing low shear in the Caribbean only adds more uncertainty to the question.
I personally don’t buy the low Caribbean shear forecasts. It just seems too unbelievable for a solid El Niño year. I still think this year’s storm formation and track hotspots will be comparable to 2018: a dead and hostile Caribbean/western MDR, with a relatively active subtropics and eastern MDR.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Cpv17 wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:cycloneye wrote:
Hyperactive season?
The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the Atlantic is commonly associated with hyperactive seasons. However, I doubt 2023 comes anywhere close to the hyperactive threshold because of El Nino. I went with 100 ACE as a prediction, but the uncertainty seems much higher than usual. Models such as the CanSIPS showing low shear in the Caribbean only adds more uncertainty to the question.
The MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf have cooled off a decent amount the past few days.
But overall still remain well above average and forecasted to stay above average through at least September.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
CyclonicFury wrote:cycloneye wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:I think 2023 is going to be an interesting case study to see how much ENSO can suppress the Atlantic on its own. Pretty much every other indicator supports a well above average to hyperactive season.
Hyperactive season?
The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the Atlantic is commonly associated with hyperactive seasons. However, I doubt 2023 comes anywhere close to the hyperactive threshold because of El Nino. I went with 100 ACE as a prediction, but the uncertainty seems much higher than usual. Models such as the CanSIPS showing low shear in the Caribbean only adds more uncertainty to the question.
Thanks. Models often have a lot of trouble forecasting shear just one week out, much less a few months. I'd like to know how well prior seasonal forecasts released in June for Aug-Sep Caribbean shear have done for El Niño as well as other seasons. Does anyone know?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Dr. Levi Cowan recently uploaded a video containing his thoughts regarding this year's season. Skip to around 4:36.
https://youtu.be/s7mNmx7wTkY
Very interesting to see 1951 being used as an analog year. One could only imagine what a 1951-like year would look like in our modern-day environment
Interestingly 1951 did not see overly strong trades, and I believe that 2023 currently has a warmer Atlantic than 1951. I don't think people are taking the cold PDO in to account enough in conjunction with the El Niño. It is going to confine the northern reach of the warmth. I had looked for years similar to this one and couldn't find one
Not necessarily. We’ve had plenty of +ENSO/-PDO years where westerly anomalous flow covered the MDR west of 50W or so. I can plot if asked.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Teban54 wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/TorenWX/status/1664789024584658944
Question: It looks like compared to 1-2 months ago, the current Atlantic SSTA pattern has transformed from a classic +AMO horseshoe to an "all warm" pattern, with waters ESE of the Carolinas being the most notable. Could this hamper seasonal activity by creating more shear over MDR?
The incoming -NAO will return us much closer to the classical look maybe a little displaced to the north. Time is tuning out for the current look to fade as the extratropical storm track retreats northward for the summer, reducing its relevance on the SST configuration. It is possible if Africa is drier the warmth tappers off a bit (this was very common in the 1960s which featured -NAO that led to some impressive +AMO configurations during wintertime) but given the positive feedbacks associated with warm +SSTA’s I have my reservations.
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