2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LemieT]

In observing the models recently, it seems the CMC's name has changed from Constantly Making Cyclones to Can't Make Cyclones.

This didn't age well:
https://i.postimg.cc/4dtR5fGc/gem-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-240.gif

I think it heard me and said: Oh yeah, let me show yah!

All jokes aside though, what a wild space we are in that we are legitimately discussing even the possible concept of MULTIPLE systems in a June MDR...

What sphere and time of the year is this again?

[cycloneye]

Very interesting comments by Levi about GFS and the phanthoms.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1670170262963363840

[zzzh]

Keep an eye on the wave behind 92L.

[BobHarlem]

Todays 12z gfs just cant help itself with the w. Carib again.

[LarryWx]

Todays 12z gfs just cant help itself with the w. Carib again.

Indeed and this is not the same feature it developed on over 30 runs, which it had forming within 6/17-19. This one is a couple of days later.

[aspen]

Todays 12z gfs just cant help itself with the w. Carib again.

Indeed and this is not the same feature it developed on over 30 runs, which it had forming within 6/17-19. This one is a couple of days later.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but what the GFS is developing might be the convectively active clump of vorticity currently down by Costa Rica.

[Category5Kaiju]

Todays 12z gfs just cant help itself with the w. Carib again.

Indeed and this is not the same feature it developed on over 30 runs, which it had forming within 6/17-19. This one is a couple of days later.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but what the GFS is developing might be the convectively active clump of vorticity currently down by Costa Rica.

Yes, that is correct, The GFS tends to overreact to these features and seems to always believe that they are the precursors for TCG, without really accounting for things like wind shear (which is expected to be very high in that region) or steering (oftentimes these systems end up in the EPAC). I wish the GFS was revised so it becomes less sensitive to these Central American disturbances.

[aspen]

12z CMC and ICON are showing that yet another wave, set to roll off of Africa on Thursday, has a shot at developing.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1671933262606876673

[Teban54]

Thread on another possible MDR development:
 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1672703159670566918

[wxman57]

Todays 12z gfs just cant help itself with the w. Carib again.

Indeed and this is not the same feature it developed on over 30 runs, which it had forming within 6/17-19. This one is a couple of days later.

Again, it's the 100% outlier. Not even any 850mb vorticity in either the EC or the CMC. Yeah, I believe it THIS time. Right...

[aspen]

The CMC really like this wave set to emerge off of Africa on Wednesday. So far no other model is showing development.

[aspen]

12z GFS just picked up on the CMC’s early July MDR system. Let’s see if it sticks around on the two models.

[wxman57]

Looking like it may be quiet next couple of weeks in the Atlantic, as long as Cindy doesn't briefly re-develop. It's notable that both MDR storms this past week were struggling due to wind shear.

[Cpv17]

Looking like it may be quiet next couple of weeks in the Atlantic, as long as Cindy doesn't briefly re-develop. It's notable that both MDR storms this past week were struggling due to wind shear.

Is the wind shear also the culprit behind the drop in SST’s in the MDR? Sorry I’m still trying to learn a lot of this stuff lol

[AlanSnyder35]

Looking like it may be quiet next couple of weeks in the Atlantic, as long as Cindy doesn't briefly re-develop. It's notable that both MDR storms this past week were struggling due to wind shear.

I mean climatology would have suggested it would have struggled with Shear anyway. It's telling we even had 2 MDR June systems to begin with IMO

[NDG]

Looking like it may be quiet next couple of weeks in the Atlantic, as long as Cindy doesn't briefly re-develop. It's notable that both MDR storms this past week were struggling due to wind shear.

2017's Atlantic MDR systems that formed between June-August also struggled with shear, including Harvey as it tracked through the Caribbean, more typical than not, but currently the shear is not as strong as other previous growing El Nino years, I would say is average.

[wxman57]

Looking like it may be quiet next couple of weeks in the Atlantic, as long as Cindy doesn't briefly re-develop. It's notable that both MDR storms this past week were struggling due to wind shear.

Is the wind shear also the culprit behind the drop in SST’s in the MDR? Sorry I’m still trying to learn a lot of this stuff lol

What drop in MDR SSTs?

[Cpv17]

Looking like it may be quiet next couple of weeks in the Atlantic, as long as Cindy doesn't briefly re-develop. It's notable that both MDR storms this past week were struggling due to wind shear.

Is the wind shear also the culprit behind the drop in SST’s in the MDR? Sorry I’m still trying to learn a lot of this stuff lol

What drop in MDR SSTs?

In the past couple weeks the SST’s have cooled off a bit out there per Tropical Tidbits. Was wondering what the culprit was behind that.

[NotSparta]

Looking like it may be quiet next couple of weeks in the Atlantic, as long as Cindy doesn't briefly re-develop. It's notable that both MDR storms this past week were struggling due to wind shear.

It is indeed notable that storms struggled with shear, in a region where shear is normally high in June