Texas Summer 2023

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#361 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 19, 2023 1:23 pm

These dew points have been wild. The heatwave has been fueled by these dews driving the indexes high. Some have mentioned corn belts, yes this type of moist heat is more akin to there and the southeastern US.

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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#362 Postby Edwards Limestone » Mon Jun 19, 2023 3:25 pm

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1166.html

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Mesoscale Discussion 1166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 191933Z - 192030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms is increasing across
portions of central TX. Severe gusts/hail are the primary threats
with the strongest storms that manage to develop.

DISCUSSION...Clear skies have allowed for strong surface heating,
with temperatures exceeding 100 F in spots. Surface dewpoints
remaining in the 70s F supports a highly unstable airmass, that
combined with 9 C/km surface-500 mb lapse rates, is contributing to
over 5000 J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE. Visible satellite and MRMS mosaic
radar data shows convective initiation already underway. Since
veering/strengthening winds with height are contributing to
elongated hodographs/35-45 kts of effective bulk shear, any storms
that develop should rapidly become supercells with the potential to
produce large hail (perhaps some stones exceeding 2 inches in
diameter) along with severe gusts. An upgrade to Slight Risk is in
progress and the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is being
considered.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/19/2023
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#363 Postby Edwards Limestone » Mon Jun 19, 2023 3:26 pm

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0340.html

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
250 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central Texas

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter possible
Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...Isolated intense thunderstorms are expected to form this
afternoon over the watch area. Very large hail and damaging wind
gusts are possible with the strongest cells.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles south southwest
of Junction TX to 50 miles northwest of Brownwood TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#364 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jun 19, 2023 3:55 pm

Storm out near Brady is now svr warned.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#365 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Jun 19, 2023 4:21 pm

As of 3:53PM McAllen, Tx (MFE) registered 105 with a 120 Heat Index. 75 Dew Point
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#366 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 19, 2023 4:38 pm

Rgv20 wrote:As of 3:53PM McAllen, Tx (MFE) registered 105 with a 120 Heat Index. 75 Dew Point


Dew points have came down slightly from where they were a few days ago. At least here. Mid 70 dews now compared to upper 70’s we had Thursday through Saturday.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#367 Postby Bhow » Mon Jun 19, 2023 4:56 pm

Looks like I picked a bad time to go to the Dominican
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#368 Postby Brent » Mon Jun 19, 2023 9:35 pm

cstrunk wrote:I'm on day 3 with no power at my house. Some people are getting lucky and getting theirs back. But the latest update says it could still be as late as Friday before power is restored here.


Same here on the Friday estimate. I went to OKC last night to chill for a day(which is totally fine btw) but I gotta go home tomorrow and I'm dreading it. I did snag a hotel at least til Friday just in case(that's the reason I went to OKC because I couldn't find one yesterday and had absolutely no phone signal at my apartment and so I had an overnight bag packed searching for a hotel last night til I finally gave up and floored it to the edge of OKC) but I really hope I don't need it
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#369 Postby Nederlander » Tue Jun 20, 2023 7:33 am

Can we just rename the thread Texas Hell 2023. It has felt like late August in Houston for a week now with no end in sight. I thought we were in an El Niño pattern…
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#370 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Jun 20, 2023 2:32 pm

San Angelo WFO breaks all-time temperature record today. In the replies, they mention they just hit 113!

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAngelo/status/1671227438687473664


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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#371 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Jun 20, 2023 2:55 pm

This is the worst June weather I can remember us having in many years. Normally the brutal heat holds off until July and August. This year it came on quick, right after our nice and cool rainy pattern ended.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#372 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jun 20, 2023 3:11 pm

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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#373 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jun 20, 2023 3:13 pm

Not all hope is lost; models do show some chances that we might see an MCS or two dive down across the state over the next week.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#374 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Jun 20, 2023 3:18 pm

KBAZ (New Braunfels Nat'l Airport) just observed heat index of 118 degrees.

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBAZ.html
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#375 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Jun 20, 2023 3:31 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:San Angelo WFO breaks all-time temperature record today. In the replies, they mention they just hit 113!

https://twitter.com/NWSSanAngelo/status/1671227438687473664?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet


This is gonna be a summer for the record books I'm afraid.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAngelo/status/1671253814673051648


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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#376 Postby Brent » Tue Jun 20, 2023 3:42 pm

So much for that cooler summer due to El Nino :spam:

Luckily we stayed cloudy today so we're not as bad(still thousands without power from Saturday). I witnessed a power line in the road earlier during lunch still
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#377 Postby cstrunk » Tue Jun 20, 2023 4:25 pm

Lost power again at work - apparently a transformer blew nearby. At least I have power at home! The heat is no joke. Also just saw a report that a lineman working to restore power in East Texas has died likely due to heat related illness. :(
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#378 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jun 20, 2023 4:40 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:This is the worst June weather I can remember us having in many years. Normally the brutal heat holds off until July and August. This year it came on quick, right after our nice and cool rainy pattern ended.

It seems like parts of the Atmosphere is forgetting that the La Nina is gone. There was a +SOI run around 12-9 days ago, now we currently have a strong -SOI (Between -10 and -25) run since June 15th.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#379 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jun 20, 2023 4:42 pm

Brent wrote:So much for that cooler summer due to El Nino :spam:

Luckily we stayed cloudy today so we're not as bad(still thousands without power from Saturday). I witnessed a power line in the road earlier during lunch still


Yeah, I was on I-44 on the way back, there was a lot of tree damage, unroofed structures, traffic lights showing no power, and sign destruction in spots. It was that bad.

Even a Shipping Container fell from those winds. I was in Springfield, MO when that storm showed up at 4 AM in the morning.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#380 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jun 20, 2023 4:45 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:This is the worst June weather I can remember us having in many years. Normally the brutal heat holds off until July and August. This year it came on quick, right after our nice and cool rainy pattern ended.


The one fascinating aspect of this current heat is the extreme dewpoints. You typically don't associate very high dew points (70+) with 100+ temps in Texas sans the extreme southeastern part of the state. So while hot, it is also extremely moist/humid.
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