2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

Next.

[hurricane2025]

Dry air

[wxman57]

12Z GFS looks quite realistic for the wave in the eastern MDR - no development and a more rapid movement west through the Caribbean and into Central America. Good.

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS Ensemble support has all but collapsed as well. (just 1 member really develops it)

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Ensemble support has all but collapsed as well. (just 1 member really develops it)
https://i.imgur.com/vZk1943.png

The one that goes over my house.

[Kingarabian]

Euro has a more robust wave than the GFS all of a sudden.

[Blown Away]

12z ECENS

12z GEFS

[jlauderdal]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/QdsxZCt3/12z-ECENS.jpg [/url]
12z ECENS
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/RFnzHxFd/12z-GEFS.jpg [/url]
12z GEFS

At least they agree on the general direction of travel, doesnt mean they are right. Im with wxman57, not much to see here in the longer term.

[Teban54]

12z GFS Ensemble support has all but collapsed as well. (just 1 member really develops it)
https://i.imgur.com/vZk1943.png

There are still several members showing a TD or TS within MDR, just not surviving past the islands. I think this needs more clarification.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS Ensemble support has all but collapsed as well. (just 1 member really develops it)
https://i.imgur.com/vZk1943.png

There are still several members showing a TD or TS within MDR, just not surviving past the islands. I think this needs more clarification.

More favorable environment north of the islands sw Atl.

[ineedsnow]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/QdsxZCt3/12z-ECENS.jpg [/url]
12z ECENS
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/RFnzHxFd/12z-GEFS.jpg [/url]
12z GEFS

That's the 0z EPS 12z had more develop it in the SW atlantic

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS: much weaker with this vs the prior two runs with only one H (a MH). At 0Z yesterday, it was way more active and with 7 H (5-6 MH).

Back up to 5 Hs on the new 12Z EPS through day 10 vs only 1 H on the 0Z. Yesterday's 12Z EPS had 7 HS.

[BobHarlem]

0Z EPS: much weaker with this vs the prior two runs with only one H (a MH). At 0Z yesterday, it was way more active and with 7 H (5-6 MH).

Back up to 5 Hs on the new 12Z EPS through day 10 vs only 1 H on the 0Z. Yesterday's 12Z EPS had 7 HS.

12z EPS (Euro Ensembles):



Figures that the GFS ones fell so far off while the Euro ones went up a bit.

[OuterBanker]

0Z EPS: much weaker with this vs the prior two runs with only one H (a MH). At 0Z yesterday, it was way more active and with 7 H (5-6 MH).

Back up to 5 Hs on the new 12Z EPS through day 10 vs only 1 H on the 0Z. Yesterday's 12Z EPS had 7 HS.

12z EPS (Euro Ensembles):

https://i.imgur.com/8am65Sv.png

Figures that the GFS ones fell so far off while the Euro ones went up a bit.

Interesting how the Euro avoids Hispaniola and Cuba on both south and north tracks.

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS has nothing in the MDR from the AEW of interest.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1681445376795242496

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/weatherffolkes/status/1681401272795115520



Off-topic: Does anyone know why the EPS can often be much more aggressive than the operational Euro? The tweet above may be an exception, but we've seen many runs where the operational shows nothing while the ensembles are enthusiastic about development.

With GFS, I feel that either the operational and ensembles correlate well (GEFS started cutting back on development when the operational did), or it's the reverse (GFS pumping out fantasy canes that are not supported by its ensembles).

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has a strong wave that tries to get going briefly but never really develops.

[Teban54]

This looks like something that would have been developing immediately off the coast if there was less dry air around.

[Teban54]

0z GEFS a little bit more active than 18z, with 3 members having a TS tracking across the MDR, all into Caribbean or dissipating before. More members may have a TD/weak TS that's more short-lived. Still a very weak signal overall.

Out to 180 hrs so far: