WPAC: KHANUN - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane2022]

AFTER BOUNCING AROUND LIKE A BEACH BALL IN THE
GENERAL ADMISSION SECTION OF DODGER STADIUM FOR 24 HOURS OR SO, THE
NER TO THE SOUTH BUILDS IN AND KICKS THE SYSTEM OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 72.

[Sciencerocks]

[doomhaMwx]

Kumejima station recorded an MSLP of 954.2 mb shortly before 11am JST (02Z) just outside the inner eyewall or ~40km from the center. Central pressure is probably near 940mb.

[FireRat]

AFTER BOUNCING AROUND LIKE A BEACH BALL IN THE
GENERAL ADMISSION SECTION OF DODGER STADIUM FOR 24 HOURS OR SO, THE
NER TO THE SOUTH BUILDS IN AND KICKS THE SYSTEM OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 72.

Or shot NE like a Khanun-ball after 72 hehehe

[doomhaMwx]

Sentinel-2 captured an amazing view of the eye today.


 https://twitter.com/kosmi64833127/status/1686690474394894336

[ManilaTC]

AFTER BOUNCING AROUND LIKE A BEACH BALL IN THE
GENERAL ADMISSION SECTION OF DODGER STADIUM FOR 24 HOURS OR SO, THE
NER TO THE SOUTH BUILDS IN AND KICKS THE SYSTEM OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 72.

Or shot NE like a Khanun-ball after 72 hehehe

Ah JTWC. Prognostic Reasoning is written to American tastes hehe.
If a regular Asian reads that, what is Dodger Stadium? Haiyaa...

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1686755141917999104

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 26.2N 125.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 114 NM WEST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 37 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL
DEFINED 20NM EYE AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES IN ALL
QUADRANTS. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, A SLIGHT TROCHOIDAL WOBBLE IS
ONCE AGAIN EVIDENT. A RECENT 020830Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A TIGHT INNER EYEWALL WITH A PRONOUNCED, ROUGHLY 90NM MOAT,
BEYOND WHICH IS THE SECONDARY EYEWALL. THIS RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH INCREASING MICROWAVE PROBABILITY OF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (M-PERC) VALUES, INDICATE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC) IS LIKELY UNDERWAY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
NEARLY COMPLETE CONSENSUS AMONGST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED
INTENSITY FIXES THAT REFLECT PERSISTENT INTENSITY AND EVEN SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. THIS STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO A RECENT 020859Z
SMAP PARTIAL PASS AND 020945Z SAR PASS WHICH BOTH SHOWED A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 85-91 KTS. BASED ON THIS DISSONANCE, THE CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MEDIUM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED OVER THE YELLOW SEA TO THE NORTH AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
(NER) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 102 KTS AT 021130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 06W (KHANUN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THAT TIME, THE
ONGOING ERC WILL INDUCE LIMITED SHORT TERM WEAKENING THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BE EXACERBATED BY UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS BENEATH
06W. THIS UPWELLING TAKES PLACE NEAR TAU 24, AS THE STR OVER THE
YELLOW SEA BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND BLOCKS ANY FURTHER MOVEMENT
TOWARDS MAINLAND CHINA. AS TRACK SPEEDS GRIND TO A HALT, UPWELLING
BEGINS TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 36, 06W IS FORECAST TO
SHARPLY TURN GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EVENTUALLY PICKING UP
SPEED WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
WEAKENED TO AROUND 65KTS AS IT ONCE AGAIN PASSES KADENA AB. BEYOND
TAU 100, HAS SEEN SOME OF THE GREATEST RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY,
THANKS IN PART TO RIDGING, OR LACK THEREOF, THAT DEVELOPS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. FOR THE TIME BEING, THE PREPONDERANCE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE, INDICATES A
PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY COURSE FOLLOWING TAU 36 AND THROUGH
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVGM AND HWRF, NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH THE BULK OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A SLOW APPROACH TO 124E BEFORE SHARPLY
TURNING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. NVGM AND HWRF EXECUTE THEIR TURNS
SOONER AND MORE DRAMATICALLY, EVENTUALLY BEING JOINED BY COAMPS-TC
(NVGM AND GFS), THESE MEMBERS ALL PASS WITHIN 15-40NM OF KADENA AB.
THE REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST MAINTAINING A GREATER CPA TO KADENA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
JGSM WHICH TARGETS SASEBO, ALL OTHER MEMBERS CONTINUE AN
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY HEADING FOLLOWING TAU 36 AND THROUGH TAU 120.
FOR ALL OF THESE REASONS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
INITIALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING SLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 24 AND
MORE DRAMATIC WEAKENING THEREAFTER, WITH MINIMAL DEVIATION FROM THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/zoom_earth/status/1686832337265299456

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 26.5N 125.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 150 NM WEST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONTRACTING INNER EYE WITH COOLING CENTRAL BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH A MAINTAINING COLD RING SYMMETRICALLY
SURROUNDING THE EYE. RADAR IMAGERY FROM JAPAN INDICATES THAT THE
INNER EYEWALL REMAINS INTACT AT ABOUT 15 NM DIAMETER, WITH A MOSTLY
COMPLETE OUTER CONCENTRIC BAND AROUND THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A
DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 NM. GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND DOWN SOUTH OF
MIYAKOJIMA, WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 47 KTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN
OBSERVED ON OKINAWA IN RECENT HOURS TO THE EAST OF THE TYPHOON'S
CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA, AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS BASED ON A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM ABOUT 90 KT TO 110 KT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SAR DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 021730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) IS MOVING INTO THE EAST
CHINA SEA AND IS LIKELY ABOUT TO BEGIN THE DECAY PROCESS DUE TO
COLD UPWELLING CAUSED BY ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION. THE FIRST
EVIDENCE OF THIS DECAY MAY BE THE CONTRACTION AND WARMING OF THE
EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY IN RECENT HOURS. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 48-72 HOURS AS THE TYPHOON
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN STALLS BEFORE TURNING BACK
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, A TRACK THAT WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT OCEAN
COOLING BENEATH THE STORM'S CORE. THIS STALL AND TURN BACK EASTWARD
WILL BE CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER KOREA TO THE NORTH OF THE TYPHOON AND A STRENGTHENING
MONSOONAL BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLIES MIGRATING CLOSER TO THE TYPHOON
ON ITS SOUTH SIDE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
TURN BACK TOWARDS THE RYUKYU ISLANDS, AND THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
CROSSES AMAMI OSHIMA BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A TURN
TOWARDS MAINLAND JAPAN MAY OCCUR AS THE TYPHOON BUTTS UP AGAINST
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF JAPAN. HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
MODEL SPREAD IN THE TYPHOON'S FORWARD SPEED DURING THIS TIME, OWING
TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL STEERING FEATURES, INCLUDING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWINGING
THROUGH KOREA DURING THE 72-120 HOURS PERIOD, AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW CYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU, WHICH
COULD IMPACT STEERING FOR 06W IF THAT OCCURS. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHIFTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND SLIGHTLY FASTER.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE 72-120 HOUR TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE. REGARDING INTENSITY, KHANUN MAY DIP BELOW TYPHOON STRENGTH
DUE TO COLD UPWELLING AS IT MEANDERS THROUGH THE EAST CHINA SEA,
BUT ITS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DURING THE 72-120 HOUR PERIOD
WOULD BRING IT OVER WARMER WATERS AGAIN. FOR NOW, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY FOR SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE LIKELY BROAD NATURE OF THE
TYPHOON'S CORE FOLLOWING THE DEGRADATION OF THE INNER CORE THAT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE COLD WATER OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, WHICH WOULD
NOT FAVOR QUICK REINTENSIFICATION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, PLACING LESS
WEIGHT ON MODELS WHICH ARE NOT DYNAMICALLY COUPLED TO THE OCEAN,
AND THUS DO NOT SEE THE COLD UPWELLING THAT WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE
TYPHOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 26.7N 124.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 188 NM WEST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON KHANUN HAS PERSISTED IN A DYNAMIC AND COMPETING ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND JAPANESE WEATHER RADAR SHOW A SMALL, ERODING EYEWALL
SURROUNDED BY AN IRREGULAR (12NM DIAMETER) EYE BECOMING LESS
DEFINED AND CLOUD FILLED. A LACK OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAS INHIBITED AN IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS
OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. HOWEVER, THE 030505Z ATMS 165GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED INNER
EYEWALL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BECOME COOLER IN THE
AREA FROM UPWELLING OF COOLER SEA WATER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 030600Z HM9 IR-BD IMAGE
AND A 030610Z RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE, SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES, AND OBJECTIVE CIMSS ADT AND DPRINT ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 113 KTS AT 031152Z
CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 030530Z
D-PRINT: 90 KTS AT 030800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) KHANUN (06W) WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT SHARPLY TURNS TO AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAINS THIS MOTION FROM TAU 12
THROUGH TAU 96. WHILE THE SYSTEM MAKES THIS ABRUPT TURN IT WILL
WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO THE UPWELLING COOL WATER AND COLD POOL AT
THE SURFACE THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TY 06W WILL ACCELERATE
WHILE MAINTAINING TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR POST TAU 72 AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSITS OVER UNCHURNED SEAS WITH CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN DIVERGES WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 130NM
BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, GUIDANCE FURTHER DIVERGES LENDING MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE 030000Z GEFS AND EPS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MODERATE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM KYUSHU TO
THE KII PENINSULA. THERE IS A MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
MODELS ON HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST AND THE STR OVER JAPAN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 26.8N 124.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 189 NM WEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY KHANUN
REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE EAST CHINA SEA, CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS REDUCED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP. CONVECTION AROUND THE CORE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED;
HOWEVER, AN OUTLINE OF A REMNANT EYE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CORE IS
STILL DISCERNIBLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE REMNANT EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SIGNIFICANT 6-HR
WEAKENING. ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEGRADED, UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
MOSTLY CAUSED BY COOLING SST DUE TO UPWELLING BROUGHT ON BY THE
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AND BY THE DIMINISHED UPPER LEVEL
VENTILATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND PRORATED FROM LAST
WARNING.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN THE STR TO THE
NORTH AND THE NER TO THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 69 KTS AT 031730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 06W WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION FROM BEING QUASI-
STATIONARY AND TRACK WESTWARD AS THE NER BUILDS AND BECOMES THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. AROUND TAU 48, A SECONDARY STR TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD
TOWARD SHIKOKU,JAPAN. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL AND
CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55KTS BY TAUS 36-48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES WILL INVIGORATE THE DYING CONVECTION AND PROMOTE ANOTHER
INTENSIFICATION PHASE, AND BY TAU 120, WILL REACH 70KTS AS IT
APPROACHES SHIKOKU.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 185NM BY TAU 120 WITH JGSM ON THE
LEFT MARGIN AND NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE ALONG-TRACK STORM MOTION AS THE
CYCLONE COMES OUT OF ITS QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID VERY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 27.0N 124.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 174 NM WEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TY KHANUN HAS
BEGUN TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF ITS QUASI-STATIONARY STATE IN THE EAST
CHINA SEA AS THE BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST HAS ASSUMED STEERING. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
INHIBITED BY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST. CONVECTION
AROUND THE CORE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY CONTINUE
TO ERODE; HOWEVER, A DIMPLED EYE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CORE IS STILL
DISCERNIBLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE DIMPLED EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 032240Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END
OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SUPPORTED BY A 032129Z
SAR PASS THAT 63-67KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND
REFLECTS THE 6-HR WEAKENING. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT MOSTLY CAUSED BY COOLING SST DUE TO UPWELLING BROUGHT
ON BY THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AND BY THE DIMINISHED UPPER LEVEL
VENTILATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ANCHORED IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 032330Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 67 KTS AT 032240Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 59 KTS AT 040000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 06W WILL SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE NER. AFTER TAU 48, A SECONDARY STR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD TOWARD SHIKOKU,
JAPAN. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL AND CONTINUE TO
ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55 KTS AT TAUS 24-48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL
INVIGORATE THE DYING CONVECTION AND PROMOTE MODEST INTENSIFICATION
TO 65KTS BY TAU 120 AS IT APPROACHES SHIKOKU.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 185NM BY TAU 313 WITH GFS ON THE
LEFT MARGIN AND NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE ALONG-TRACK STORM MOTION
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OUT OF ITS QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE, THERE IS ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID VERY CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Current appearance now strongly reminds me of Winnie (1997).
 https://twitter.com/doomhaMwx/status/1687384038330470401




KHANUN:


WINNIE:

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN)
WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 27.4N 125.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 120 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE (600NM DIAMETER)
SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER WITH FLARING,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN MARGINAL DUE PRIMARILY TO THE UPWELLING COOLER WATER OFFSET
SOMEWHAT BY THE MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A
040947Z RCM-3 SAR IMAGE INDICATES A MEDIUM-SIZED (55 TO 65NM DIAMETER)
CORE OF LIGHT WINDS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF STORM-FORCE WINDS DISPLACED
ABOUT 50NM FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RELIABLE 041200Z JMA WEATHER RADAR FIX AND A
041200Z HM9 INFRARED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS AND AFOREMENTIONED SAR IMAGE.
THE 041300Z D-PRINT ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS AND THE 041300Z CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 62 KTS AT 041300Z
CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 041130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W IS ACCELERATING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER. DUE TO THE UPWELLING COOL WATER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12,
WHICH IT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TS 06W, WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE STEERING FLOW
SUPPORTING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SLOW TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 48. AFTER
TAU 48, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ESPECIALLY
SST VALUES, WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 28-29C, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A MODEST REINTENSIFICATION TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTER
TAU 96, TS 06W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS IT
TRACKS OVER WESTERN JAPAN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH A 110NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU
72, THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY WITH A 157NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
AT TAU 120. THE JGSM TRACKER IS THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER WITH A
TRACK OVER KYUSHU WHILE NAVGEM IS THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER WITH A
TRACK OVER SHIKOKU ISLAND. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH A TRACK BETWEEN KYUSHU AND SHIKOKU ISLANDS. THE
040000Z ECMWF (EPS) AND 040600Z GFS (GEFS) ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL INDICATE SOLUTIONS WEST OF KYUSHU TO THE
KII PENINSULA SUPPORTING THE TRACK FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//

[cycloneye]

JMA downgrades to Severe Tropical Storm.

Issued at 2023/08/04 18:50 UTC
Analysis at 08/04 18 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N27°40′ (27.7°)
E126°25′ (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area E220 km (120 NM)

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1687659436049899520