ATL: HAROLD - Remnants - Discussion

[chaser1]

Pretty broad envelope! Might just be a decent surge of precip for much of the Texas coastline

[Ivanhater]

Imo, this will very likely become Gert before landfall. Models are playing catch-up.I would venture to say a strong TS with an outside shot at a hurricane.

[REDHurricane]

Looks like the LLC is currently forming near 25ºN, 86ºW -- probably still needs to build more convection around the center and get itself better stacked vertically for the NHC to consider upgrading

[IcyTundra]

Should be Gert by tomorrow organizing a bit quicker than models have shown to no one's surprise. I'm thinking a 60-65 mph TS into South Texas/North East Mexico with an outside chance of becoming a weak cat 1.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Hillary falling apart faster could mean improved conditions in the western gulf. The 18Z GFS seems to see a last minute ramp up just before landfall.

[jaguars_22]

Could this thing continue wnw and come in further north? Stronger system… could it bump the ridge more?

[IcyTundra]

Could this thing continue wnw and come in further north? Stronger system… could it bump the ridge more?

I doubt it this ridge is no joke and it will struggle to gain latitude.

[tolakram]

Could this thing continue wnw and come in further north? Stronger system… could it bump the ridge more?

No way (well, I'm not sure how much further north, but not much IMO), one of the strongest ridges in a long long time, and I don't see it ending any time soon. Even up here we're expecting 90's to near 100 this week, and we've escaped most of the heat so far this year.

[jaguars_22]

I was hoping Corpus Christi so the rain will hit us in like Victoria, houston

[wxman57]

I was hoping Corpus Christi so the rain will hit us in like Victoria, houston

It would have to move ashore closer to Freeport for Houston to get any significant rain. Victoria could get around an inch out of the system.

[Stratton23]

Yeah this is a big nothing burger for SE Texas, but The gulf of mexico will be open for business next week as well, increasing odds of a pacific crossover into the BOC or Western Caribbean are going up ( ensemble support is their, from all three models) also our heat ridge will be weakening and backing off to our west, so this system will probably not be the last one to track in the gulf

[Hurricane Mike]

Looks similar to Erika 2003 or Hanna 2020. Don't rule out hurricane status before landfall.

[IcyTundra]

Shouldn't this be a PTC? It will be impacting South Texas/NE Mexico in about 36 hours.

[gatorcane]

Convection is decreasing with the diurnal minimum but the 850mb vorticity has tightened some over the last 6 to 9 hours:

Plus the GFS model shows a TS now just before landfall. Expecting code red for the 8pm NHC outlook.

[tropicwatch]

Currently encountering 25 to 30kt wind shear.

[galvestontx]

Well heading to Port Aransas tomorrow morning for a week vacation, will see how it goes lol.

[cycloneye]

Code Red

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased this evening, and are
becoming better organized in association with a trough of low
pressure located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for development of this system as it
moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph across the central Gulf of
Mexico. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form as it
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by Tuesday.
Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be necessary
on Monday for portions of the southern Texas and northern Mexico
coastlines.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[zzzh]

Currently encountering 25 to 30kt wind shear.

No, wind shear should be around 10kt.