ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ChrisJacksonSC/status/1695460061819126061

[Poonwalker]

It’s going to be affected by westerly shear and have a tilted presentation. At least for a couple days. Doing a good job though organizing so far.

[gatorcane]

Agreed coming together quickly and models might have to play catch-up. There even looks to be banding on the SE side forming.

What does a stronger storm in the short-term mean for track implications?

[cycloneye]

Impressive radar presentation.

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1695459295498743984

[MississippiWx]

Impressive radar presentation.

https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1695459295498743984

Not hard at all to tell if the circulation is closed. Everything from surface observations to satellite shows it’s closed.

[MetroMike]

Does not appear at least from Sat views that the center is over the eastern tip of the Yucatan as shown by a map earlier on.

[hipshot]

Does not appear at least from Sat views that the center is over the eastern tip of the Yucatan as shown by a map earlier on.

Looking at the radar from the previous post, it still looks like it is over water still and may stay there.

[chaser1]

ASSUMING continued organization throughout the day and if we begin to see improved banding, then I would guess the 2:00pm TWO will heighten the message that a TD may be forming, and mention recon to investigate the disturbance later this eve.

I think that the earliest that any upgrade would occur might be an 8:00pm or 9:00pm Special Advisory following data from recon. Thereafter, PTS or Storm Watches perhaps commensing early tomorrow.

[Javlin]

What does a stronger storm in the short-term mean for track implications?

https://i.postimg.cc/xCJhQNRM/goes16-vis-93-L-202308261417.gif

Usually more N.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Was just reading the discussion from the local MET office here in Atlanta, and in their long term forecast which begins Monday they say there will be 2 fronts trying to push through here. One will come Sunday but stall just south of Atlanta and one will push through on Wednesday. The second front is the one that could possibly affect 93L, but that wont happen until Wed. That will give this quite a bit of time to strengthen before any potential shear makes an appearance.

[chaser1]

Agreed coming together quickly and models might have to play catch-up. There even looks to be banding on the SE side forming.

What does a stronger storm in the short-term mean for track implications?

https://i.postimg.cc/xCJhQNRM/goes16-vis-93-L-202308261417.gif

Great question. I was wondering the same thing

[GCANE]

A stronger storm is higher winds over the Loop Current which pulls more heat out of the water.
A positive feedback mechanism for strengthening.
Very notable canes went down this path. We all know their names.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

I think they may issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook before 2 PM at this rate.

[chaser1]

Was just reading the discussion from the local MET office here in Atlanta, and in their long term forecast which begins Monday they say there will be 2 fronts trying to push through here. One will come Sunday but stall just south of Atlanta and one will push through on Wednesday. The second front is the one that could possibly affect 93L, but that wont happen until Wed. That will give this quite a bit of time to strengthen before any potential shear makes an appearance.

That second front may also imply an increased eastward nudge in storm track as we approach that point in the track cycle

[Sanibel]

Looking juiced...

More and more like an August Gulf Cyclone...

[chaser1]

I think they may issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook before 2 PM at this rate.

The way this has evolved, i'll be a long 12 hour satellite loop will be impressive to look at

[Stormlover1970]

Something coming together @ 86.5ishW/ 21.5N??

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

What just came out of the Big bend area this morning pushing far into the GOM?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

A weakening MCS

[toad strangler]

Peak season magic

[chaser1]

Impressive radar presentation.

https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1695459295498743984

Not hard at all to tell if the circulation is closed. Everything from surface observations to satellite shows it’s closed.

No doubt there's tons of low level west winds feeding in. Only thing i question is how tight or broad is the LLC, max sustained winds, and how closely co-located with an obviously vigorous MLC.