ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Hot tower is rapidly building CDO

[Jr0d]

I think a major isn't out of the question if it tracks more north than East. If it tracks more east, then I'll go with a Cat one cane(assuming a Tuesday Night landfall due to a pronounced eastward shift).

If it tracks more east, it will likely be the result of moving slower, thus more time over water.

I am now expecting a major hurricane at landfall, especially given how fast Idalia is improving as we speak.

The only thing they may inhibit Idalia tomorrow is if she moves slowly of the mountains of western Cuba, a track much further east that forecast.

As the storm approaches Florida the trough should improve outflow. This plus the hot water is why I expect a major hurricane.

Edit. Western Cuba

[GCANE]

Rapidly pulling in the convective debris from the Yucatan creating a feeder band.

[zzzh]

AL, 10, 2023082800, , BEST, 0, 198N, 854W, 40, 995, TS,

NHC has the 00Z position at the center of that huge tower

[Ianswfl]

I think a major isn't out of the question if it tracks more north than East. If it tracks more east, then I'll go with a Cat one cane(assuming a Tuesday Night landfall due to a pronounced eastward shift).

If it tracks more east, it will likely be the result of moving slower, thus more time over water.

I am now expecting a major hurricane at landfall, especially given how fast Idalia is improving as we speak.

The only thing they may inhibit Idalia tomorrow is if she moves slowly of the mountains of eastern Cuba, a track much further east that forecast.

As the storm approaches Florida the trough should improve outflow. This plus the hot water is why I expect a major hurricane.

A direct hit is sarasota pushing it or do you think they could get a direct hit too?

[GCANE]

Oh buoy!

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1695957732426240436

[fllawyer]

I think a major isn't out of the question if it tracks more north than East. If it tracks more east, then I'll go with a Cat one cane(assuming a Tuesday Night landfall due to a pronounced eastward shift).

If it tracks more east, it will likely be the result of moving slower, thus more time over water.

I am now expecting a major hurricane at landfall, especially given how fast Idalia is improving as we speak.

The only thing they may inhibit Idalia tomorrow is if she moves slowly of the mountains of eastern Cuba, a track much further east that forecast.

As the storm approaches Florida the trough should improve outflow. This plus the hot water is why I expect a major hurricane.

No model shows it being near eastern Cuba.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1695955278095937900

[Hurrilurker]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42056&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

That buoy is already recording sustained winds of ~32 kt (~37 mph) and it's probably not the highest for the system since it's a random buoy in the area. I think NHC is going to have to adjust upward after the next recon pass.

[Zonacane]

I’d say we are looking at idalia’s eye forming

[GCANE]

North end of the Loop Current and CAPE is 6000 to 7000 for the last 24 hrs.
If it doesn't let up, this will be the dominating factor for intensification all the way to landfall other than an EWRC.

[Fancy1002]

I think a major isn't out of the question if it tracks more north than East. If it tracks more east, then I'll go with a Cat one cane(assuming a Tuesday Night landfall due to a pronounced eastward shift).

If it tracks more east, it will likely be the result of moving slower, thus more time over water.

I am now expecting a major hurricane at landfall, especially given how fast Idalia is improving as we speak.

The only thing they may inhibit Idalia tomorrow is if she moves slowly of the mountains of eastern Cuba, a track much further east that forecast.

As the storm approaches Florida the trough should improve outflow. This plus the hot water is why I expect a major hurricane.

No model shows it being near eastern Cuba.

I think he meant western Cuba.

[fllawyer]

If it tracks more east, it will likely be the result of moving slower, thus more time over water.

I am now expecting a major hurricane at landfall, especially given how fast Idalia is improving as we speak.

The only thing they may inhibit Idalia tomorrow is if she moves slowly of the mountains of eastern Cuba, a track much further east that forecast.

As the storm approaches Florida the trough should improve outflow. This plus the hot water is why I expect a major hurricane.

No model shows it being near eastern Cuba.

I think he meant western Cuba.

No mountains in western Cuba.

[Spacecoast]

[jfk08c]

If it tracks more east, it will likely be the result of moving slower, thus more time over water.

I am now expecting a major hurricane at landfall, especially given how fast Idalia is improving as we speak.

The only thing they may inhibit Idalia tomorrow is if she moves slowly of the mountains of eastern Cuba, a track much further east that forecast.

As the storm approaches Florida the trough should improve outflow. This plus the hot water is why I expect a major hurricane.

No model shows it being near eastern Cuba.

I think he meant western Cuba.

Not many mountains in Western Cuba

[Jr0d]

I think a major isn't out of the question if it tracks more north than East. If it tracks more east, then I'll go with a Cat one cane(assuming a Tuesday Night landfall due to a pronounced eastward shift).

If it tracks more east, it will likely be the result of moving slower, thus more time over water.

I am now expecting a major hurricane at landfall, especially given how fast Idalia is improving as we speak.

The only thing they may inhibit Idalia tomorrow is if she moves slowly of the mountains of eastern Cuba, a track much further east that forecast.

As the storm approaches Florida the trough should improve outflow. This plus the hot water is why I expect a major hurricane.

A direct hit is sarasota pushing it or do you think they could get a direct hit too?

Anyone under the hurricane watch needs to be alert and not let the guard down, even if the latest models run shifted away.

Tomorrow mornings model runs will have much more complete data. If the models still are trending towards the northeast, left side of the cone then Sarasota will be much less likely to see a landfall.

Keep in mind the south side of a NE moving hurricane is generally the stronger, 'dirty' side and where the surge will be the worst with the onshore flow.

[jdjaguar]

Hot tower is rapidly building CDO

what does the CAPE look like?

[Blown Away]

AL, 10, 2023082800, , BEST, 0, 198N, 854W, 40, 995, TS,

NHC has the 00Z position at the center of that huge tower

Dang lost .3 degrees S again. Crazy storm, certain it was moving NE.

[SecondBreakfast]

I know the landfall is the big question but what kind of forward speed are we thinking? How much of that depends on the interaction with the trough in the north?