ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1081 Postby chaser1 » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:03 pm

Wow :uarrow: That IR pic really puts an exclamation point on it
Last edited by chaser1 on Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1082 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:04 pm

Longer timelapse from a regional view, rather than the floater.

Image

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Cozumel-sandwich-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1083 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:04 pm

Idalia has been sitting in that part of the Caribbean for a slight bit now and I haven’t heard much about upwelling. Is this part of the Caribbean THAT deep with warm water?
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1084 Postby Teban54 » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:04 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Definitely has a CDO going now... you can tell shear is still impinging it though, somewhat squashed on northern quadrants.

Yep, agreed. The cold cloud tops are impressive, but they aren’t rotating much - more just spreading out in all directions, and impeded in the north side. I’m more confident now that we are seeing a ccc pattern. Recon may still find a hurricane, or a ts that’s close to hurricane, but I wouldn’t expect much more strengthening than that until until the whole canopy starts rotating

No offense, but I feel the term CCC is now being thrown around way too often, just like the word annular.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1085 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:05 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Idalia has been sitting in that part of the Caribbean for a slight bit now and I haven’t heard much about upwelling. Is this part of the Caribbean THAT deep with warm water?


Yes very deep
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1086 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:07 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Idalia has been sitting in that part of the Caribbean for a slight bit now and I haven’t heard much about upwelling. Is this part of the Caribbean THAT deep with warm water?


Yes very deep

Oof. Sounds like West Florida is about to be in deeeep sugar honey iced tea. :eek:
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1087 Postby emeraldislenc » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:10 pm

Deep honey ice tea??
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1088 Postby chaser1 » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:11 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Idalia has been sitting in that part of the Caribbean for a slight bit now and I haven’t heard much about upwelling. Is this part of the Caribbean THAT deep with warm water?


Yes very deep


And, essentially a large current or body of water essentially fed from the equally very warm W. Caribbean. Basically, its tapping water SST's that is continually flowing into that area as opposed to a body of water more isolated from any infusion of water.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1089 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:11 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Idalia has been sitting in that part of the Caribbean for a slight bit now and I haven’t heard much about upwelling. Is this part of the Caribbean THAT deep with warm water?


Yes very deep


Indeed, no upwelling at all, buoy still reporting near 30C SSTs despite 60 mph wind gusts at times and 11.5 foot waves.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1090 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:11 pm

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1091 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:11 pm

Teban54 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Definitely has a CDO going now... you can tell shear is still impinging it though, somewhat squashed on northern quadrants.

Yep, agreed. The cold cloud tops are impressive, but they aren’t rotating much - more just spreading out in all directions, and impeded in the north side. I’m more confident now that we are seeing a ccc pattern. Recon may still find a hurricane, or a ts that’s close to hurricane, but I wouldn’t expect much more strengthening than that until until the whole canopy starts rotating

No offense, but I feel the term CCC is now being thrown around way too often, just like the word annular.

That’s fair, and that’s the main reason I didn’t want to say it with any real confidence earlier. That said, the definition is an intense convective burst that spreads out in all directions from the center. It doesn’t generally appear to rotate and is often driven by shear. Virtually all of that applies to what we’re seeing now.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1092 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:15 pm

Looks like some banding is starting to form.

Image
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1093 Postby chaser1 » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:18 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Yep, agreed. The cold cloud tops are impressive, but they aren’t rotating much - more just spreading out in all directions, and impeded in the north side. I’m more confident now that we are seeing a ccc pattern. Recon may still find a hurricane, or a ts that’s close to hurricane, but I wouldn’t expect much more strengthening than that until until the whole canopy starts rotating

No offense, but I feel the term CCC is now being thrown around way too often, just like the word annular.

That’s fair, and that’s the main reason I didn’t want to say it with any real confidence earlier. That said, the definition is an intense convective burst that spreads out in all directions from the center. It doesn’t generally appear to rotate and is often driven by shear. Virtually all of that applies to what we’re seeing now.


(well, all EXCEPT the convection being driven by shear part LOL; That would probably appear more linear in appearance with the LLC typically exposed or displaced from the convection)
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1094 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:21 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:Deep honey ice tea??

Sugar Honey Iced Tea. Didn’t know if cursing was allowed on here, so I just used a backronym.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1095 Postby Zonacane » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:22 pm

Image
Somebody help me find this supposed shear.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1096 Postby Jr0d » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:24 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Definitely has a CDO going now... you can tell shear is still impinging it though, somewhat squashed on northern quadrants.


...and dry air to the north of it also.

Regardless this is quite a blow up and I am staying up for the recon data.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1097 Postby chaser1 » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:27 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:
emeraldislenc wrote:Deep honey ice tea??

Sugar Honey Iced Tea. Didn’t know if cursing was allowed on here, so I just used a backronym.


I hate when (S)ugar (H)oney (I)ced (T)ea hits the fan. Just one unholy mess :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1098 Postby chaser1 » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:35 pm

Earlier in the day Eric Webb alluded to the possibility of Idalia potentially expanding due to the relative slow methodical pressure fall as opposed to significantly greater/faster pressure falls like we have witnessed late this evening. I still believe that this storm will have a very compact inner core with maximum winds not really extending all too far from the center. Of course, that does not suggest that dangerous TS force winds will not notably expand outward and especially to the north and east of center.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1099 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:39 pm

Recon over the channel and descending.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1100 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:39 pm

chaser1 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Teban54 wrote:No offense, but I feel the term CCC is now being thrown around way too often, just like the word annular.

That’s fair, and that’s the main reason I didn’t want to say it with any real confidence earlier. That said, the definition is an intense convective burst that spreads out in all directions from the center. It doesn’t generally appear to rotate and is often driven by shear. Virtually all of that applies to what we’re seeing now.


(well, all EXCEPT the convection being driven by shear part LOL; That would probably appear more linear in appearance with the LLC typically exposed or displaced from the convection)

Not necessarily. Mid level shear that undercuts the canopy to reach the core would be sufficient to induce the pattern. And there is shear from the north currently impacting it, just not strong enough to altogether blow the convection away, or even enough to keep it from modestly strengthening.
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