ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- chris_fit
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Anyone know when the next recon arrives into the storm?
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Reminds me of the approach tropical storm ETA took I believe in 2020. Tampa bay had a surprising amount of surge and St Pete beach areas had water on roads and some getting into parking lots and restaurants on the water. This will obviously be worse, but that one took people by surprise.
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Idalia is beginning to get a structure that is more conducive to strengthening. Convection appears to be wrapping around now. Don't be surprised if it begins to strengthen in earnest later tonight.
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This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
psyclone wrote:I'm feeling pretty optimistic here in the bay area with the core expected to remain offshore and some wiggle room. as always tempering that with past tendencies of storms to shift right of track as they head north. that's bailed us out before but would work against us this time. a little dicey. im not seeing any evidence of panic shopping here as has happened well in advance of past (ultimately false alarms) like Dorian.
Dorian is also a good example of how nothing track wise is ever set in stone. The NHC had a bullseye on my house with Dorian, I mean Jim Cantore was setting up shop at the end of my road lol. We flew to Denver, in hindsight for nothing but who knew?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Idalia's looks better organized.
If not a hurricane, very close to being one.

If not a hurricane, very close to being one.

Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Mon Aug 28, 2023 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It looks like an eye might be trying to clear out.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Poonwalker wrote:Reminds me of the approach tropical storm ETA took I believe in 2020. Tampa bay had a surprising amount of surge and St Pete beach areas had water on roads and some getting into parking lots and restaurants on the water. This will obviously be worse, but that one took people by surprise.
You bring up a great point. Even if the core remains well offshore this is a big system with a large windfield on its eastern flank. that is going to shove a crap ton of water at the coast and it will be topped by large battering waves at the beaches. the water danger here is substantial even in a best case scenario...this region is so surge prone. my relative optimism is based upon my safe elevation. this is a water storm with an ocean in motion...when that motion hits the corner of a bathtub...like the northeast corner of the gulf...bad things happen. I definitely think surge is the biggest danger with this system. the size and destination are trouble.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ronjon wrote:TallyTracker wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:
Probably going to wait for 5pm
I understand the local officials hesitancy to pull the trigger on evacuations. They will get flack no matter what decision they make. If they order an evacuation that is not needed, people will be more complacent next time and they will get chewed out or even fired for their decisions. With that said, personally I find it better to err on the side of caution every time. Evacuations are a life and death matter in a surge zone. I’d rather see people mad and alive at the end of the storm.
I personally plan to evacuate here in Tallahassee since I live in a heavily treed area with a high risk of a tree falling on my rental. The NWS is saying the risk of Cat 1 or Cat 2 winds is increasing here. Would not be surprised to be under a hurricane warning here come 5 pm. I’d rather be out a few hundred dollars for hotels and gas than risk my family’s safety. Some risks are just not worth it.
Pinellas just ordered zone A evacuation.
Manatee County just issued mandatory evacuations for Zones A and B.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
psyclone wrote:Poonwalker wrote:Reminds me of the approach tropical storm ETA took I believe in 2020. Tampa bay had a surprising amount of surge and St Pete beach areas had water on roads and some getting into parking lots and restaurants on the water. This will obviously be worse, but that one took people by surprise.
You bring up a great point. Even if the core remains well offshore this is a big system with a large windfield on its eastern flank. that is going to shove a crap ton of water at the coast and it will be topped by large battering waves at the beaches. the water danger here is substantial even in a best case scenario...this region is so surge prone. my relative optimism is based upon my safe elevation. this is a water storm with an ocean in motion...when that motion hits the corner of a bathtub...like the northeast corner of the gulf...bad things happen. I definitely think surge is the biggest danger with this system. the size and destination are trouble.
I wonder how this will affect water temps in the eastern gulf? Getting the time of year they cool a bit! However, the GFS for sept has record temps for half the country and hot weather for FL. Could get back above normal just in time for October.
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- cainjamin
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Definitely starting to see more convective bursting on the northern side of the circulation. I think it's almost guaranteed to be a hurricane by the time recon arrives if it isn't already.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
chris_fit wrote:Anyone know when the next recon arrives into the storm?
NOAA departs at 4 PM (EDT?)
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I would not be suprised it this one becomes a major hurricane a bit earlier than forcasted.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Airboy wrote:I would not be suprised it this one becomes a major hurricane a bit earlier than forcasted.
I also fear that a high-end hurricane, such as a category 4, is not out of the realm of possibility.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
LLC is slowly tucking in towards the middle of the CDO. Its been on the leading NW edge for the past 10 hours. That is a sign shear is letting up and intensification should become easier.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Radar indicates the convection is struggling to wrap upshear.
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- REDHurricane
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Kingarabian wrote:LLC is slowly tucking in towards the middle of the CDO. Its been on the leading NW edge for the past 10 hours. That is a sign shear is letting up and intensification should become easier.
Yeah, looks like the upper level ridge has shifted back to the east a bit and thus the shear that's been keeping Idalia in check the past ~2 days has decreased

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hwrf has it coming in a 931 mb
Hopefully won't be this low at landfall
Stay safe everyone
Hopefully won't be this low at landfall
Stay safe everyone
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- chris_fit
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Assuming the same steering flow that is moving all these showers/storms from S to N will apply the Idalia? I see no easterly component in anything.


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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
chris_fit wrote:Assuming the same steering flow that is moving all these showers/storms from S to N will apply the Idalia? I see no easterly component in anything.
https://i.imgur.com/D1rvARW.gif
There are a couple of troughs involved. One is supposed to pull Idalia north imminently, the second will help pull it Eastward eventually. The current weather map really doesn't tell the story of 2-3 days from now. Look at the NHC discussions or some of the global model runs to see how the steering will evolve.
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