ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1696279006553796670?s=46&t=5tHWzQ5n1A-eZvMR9vTsCA

That's what I'm worried about. A sudden "1921" solution and some people not taking this storm seriously.

[Clearcloudz]

Finally a Pro Met saying what needs to be said and not worrying about being wrong. I feel like everyone is too glued to the models that haven't been the best this season at times.

 https://twitter.com/EricBurrisWESH/status/1696252879646937562

[NDG]

Not really. Winds are mostly Easterlies. I'm talking about dropsonde 1 and 2

Those Dropsondes are only from 10k feet (h70), is not going to show the shear above that height.
You have to look at the one currently sampling the whole atmosphere which shows northerly dry shear still present directly on the NW quadrant of the storm pinching on its circulation.

Oh, I didn't realize Gonzo had conducted upper-air recon. That would certainly explain it. Thank you for the correction.

Gonzo's Dropsonde #28 in the NE quadrant does not show that strong NNW dry shear, so is walking a fine line between currently staying the same through the night or starting to get better organized, any jog to the east could definitely find a better UL environment.

[ConvergenceZone]

it almost looks stationary again with the latest Satellite loop. If that's so, I won't be surprised if if it delays landfall until early Wednesday Afternoon. Have to wait and see.

[Ianswfl]

it almost looks stationary again with the latest Satellite loop. If that's so, I won't be surprised if if it delays landfall until early Wednesday Afternoon. Have to wait and see.

That would make the east bend more south slower it moves

[Zonacane]

Those Dropsondes are only from 10k feet (h70), is not going to show the shear above that height.
You have to look at the one currently sampling the whole atmosphere which shows northerly dry shear still present directly on the NW quadrant of the storm pinching on its circulation.

Oh, I didn't realize Gonzo had conducted upper-air recon. That would certainly explain it. Thank you for the correction.

Gonzo's Dropsonde #28 in the NE quadrant does not show that strong NNW dry shear, so is walking a fine line between currently staying the same through the night or starting to get better organized, any jog to the east could definitely find a better UL environment.

I think the downside to the current shear blasting convective activity to the East and South East is the vortex will continue to tug East toward the convection until it gets stacked.

[CronkPSU]

I know this is obvious to everyone probably here already but man...Rick Knabb is so good on the weather channel explaining all these variables and how dangerous this storm can be up and down the Gulf Coast

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1696295107371454904

[Kingarabian]

Global models are not the best for intensity right now. 12z gfs simply had 971mb for Franklin and in reality it was 937mb.

This matters a lot more when you have a very tight inner core that a global model can't fully resolve, like with Franklin. We're not at the point yet where globals should be missing by this much.

Most of the hurricane models were also generally too high with pressure at 8 pm today as well, which fully resolve inner core pressure gradients.

Large core/small core globals have been pretty bad with initializing the correct pressures for some reason. It has lead to some serious errors in their forecasts.

[ColdMiser123]

Global models are not the best for intensity right now. 12z gfs simply had 971mb for Franklin and in reality it was 937mb.

This matters a lot more when you have a very tight inner core that a global model can't fully resolve, like with Franklin. We're not at the point yet where globals should be missing by this much.

Most of the hurricane models were also generally too high with pressure at 8 pm today as well, which fully resolve inner core pressure gradients.

Large core/small core globals have been pretty bad with initializing the correct pressures for some reason. It has lead to some serious errors in their forecasts.

Also depends on how each model ingests observations to create initial conditions. The GFS assimilates the NHC Best Track pressure as a buoy observation so that it is as representative of current conditions as possible. The Euro doesn't do this, which created blind spots in its forecasts for Henri in 2021.

[aspen]

It does seem like Idalia’s center is a little further tucked under its convection tonight than it was earlier in the day. How it looks tomorrow morning will be critical. A lopsided storm will mean a lower ceiling, but an organizing hurricane means a Cat 4 peak/landfall could be on the table.

[Sciencerocks]

[ScottNAtlanta]

The NOAA plane just got a 65kt dropsonde reading at 925mb which is high than what the plane is reporting

[fllawyer]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4003/fFfiyK.gif

Thanks. Still seems to be chugging due north. Will see what NHC says in 20 min.

[Zonacane]

Idalia has a more symmetric wind field based on recon. No definitive core or eyewall yet, but it will be along shortly

[ConvergenceZone]

I know this is obvious to everyone probably here already but man...Rick Knabb is so good on the weather channel explaining all these variables and how dangerous this storm can be up and down the Gulf Coast

I agree, not a big fan of the weather channel, but when it comes to tropical storm coverage, they are absolutely dominant and their 24 hour live coverage leaves everyone else in the dust. It's not even close.

But yea Knabb has been doing an amazing job with explaining the dangers of Idalia.

[CronkPSU]

still a tropical storm per the 8PM update

[NDG]

Based on latest global & hurricane models I am not expecting Idalia to start developing a true core until at least tomorrow morning if not around noon.
I am planning to have a good night sleep, tomorrow night will be a long one

[NDG]

still a tropical storm per the 8PM update

No question about it, no hurricane force winds found, not even at flight level.

[Spacecoast]