ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Coolcruiseman]

“I” names have the most retired names:
Ian (2022) resulted in 150 deaths
Ida (2021) resulted in 100 deaths
Igor (2010) resulted in 1 death
Ike (2008) resulted in 103 deaths
Inez (1966) resulted in about 300 deaths
Ingrid (2013) resulted in 32 deaths
Ione (1955) resulted in 7 deaths
Iota (2020) resulted in 84 deaths
Irene (2011) resulted in 48 deaths
Iris (2001) resulted in 50 deaths
Irma (2017) resulted in 150 deaths
Isabel (2003) resulted in 51 deaths
Isidore (2002) resulted in 9 deaths
Ivan (2004) resulted in 100 deaths

What’s interesting is 4 years in a row ‘01 to ‘04 the “I” was retired. When Idalia is it’s another 4 year streak, ‘20 to ‘23.

[caneman]

On radar sure looks like a NE movement of center. Anyone else see that?

Wobbles gonna wobble

Little more than a wobble. Noticeable. 20 or 30 miles closer to Tampa Bay can make a big difference. Its supposed to have that motion anyhow but a little later

[Hugo1989]

On radar sure looks like a NE movement of center. Anyone else see that?

I just saw it! it does look like it will start moving NE till landfall.

[Hurrilurker]

Eyewall is thickening and wrapping around the eye. The eye is clearing out. I do not like this trend.

True, but the "good" news is I expected it to do that 12+ hours ago. It's strengthening, but perhaps running out of time to achieve 4+ status. Obviously still bad if you're in the path and hopefully everyone is getting out.

It has plenty of time to become a cat 4. Many of the hurricane models show a 25+ mb drop between 26N and 28N. The intensification is only beginning.

Of course it could get there, but it took a while to get going after coming off Cuba. Even though the population is lower than say Tampa, the downside is where it's projected to land gives it about the maximum over-water run in the Gulf that it could get with the setup, and pushing water into a corner with nowhere to go. Only thing worse would be a slower forward speed giving it even more time.

[Highteeld]

There needs to be some chatter or research (if there isn't already) about rapid improvement in storm structure precluding a major drop in pressure or winds. A storm needs to build itself in terms of core/eyewall/outflow channel before a storm can really bomb out. This is a pretty good example where structure improves first, then the other traditional "metrics" we use to determine strength fall into place.

Basically, my point is, I think people giving a sigh of relief right now are doing so prematurely. There has been a radical improvement in the storm, just the winds don't reflect it quite yet.

[HurricaneBelle]

This is giving me Ida flashbacks. Struggled in the first half of the Gulf, then kaboom. It could be a long night.

Yeah I was just about to post this for everyone who's writing it off because it's not deepening as rapidly as they thought by now. RI isn't always a linear path.

[USTropics]

On radar sure looks like a NE movement of center. Anyone else see that?

I just saw it! it does look like it will start moving NE till landfall.

Center is dead on with the NHC track currently. We'll see some jogs east and west as the center continues to mature (hurricanes never travel in straight lines, extrapolate motion over several hours instead):

[SecondBreakfast]

What is the terrain like there in the bend? Is there any concern of that effect where it can still suck up energy from warm marshy water in this region so it isn’t as hindered as it comes onshore?

I’m dissertating (biology) and my brain is not remembering meteorology terms…brown ocean effect?

[tolakram]

saved loop

[jfk08c]

On radar sure looks like a NE movement of center. Anyone else see that?

Wobbles gonna wobble

Little more than a wobble. Noticeable. 20 or 30 miles closer to Tampa Bay can make a big difference. Its supposed to have that motion anyhow but a little later

Depends on which tilt of the radar you're looking at. Tilt 1 is the lowest angle and I can see it tracking straight north. On Tilt 2, you can see somewhat of a NE movement but the LLC is where you should be focused

[caneman]

On radar sure looks like a NE movement of center. Anyone else see that?

I just saw it! it does look like it will start moving NE till landfall.

Center is dead on with the NHC track currently. We'll see some jogs east and west as the center continues to mature (hurricanes never travel in straight lines, extrapolate motion over several hours instead):
https://i.imgur.com/6oeMhs3.png

I'm looking real time radar not satellite

[LandoWill]

On radar sure looks like a NE movement of center. Anyone else see that?

I just saw it! it does look like it will start moving NE till landfall.

NHC has given no indication that there is any chance of anything but the western part of the big bend landfall for over 36 hours now. Tampa is clear unless it comes in the "little end" of the big bend, there are 2 big bends, the big bend itself, and then the eastern one where crystal river etc.. is. that's when you worry

[GCANE]

At least we get to see an eye before sunset

[jdjaguar]

This is giving me Ida flashbacks. Struggled in the first half of the Gulf, then kaboom. It could be a long night.

Yeah I was just about to post this for everyone who's writing it off because it's not deepening as rapidly as they thought by now. RI isn't always a linear path.

I sincerely doubt anybody is "writing it off". I have good friends who live in Panacea.

[Hurrilurker]

Darn, looks like the daylight is going to expire just as the eye clears out. Although it's not clear yet, with the long late afternoon shadows you can see the eye's circular nature under the clouds.

[Cat5James]

On radar sure looks like a NE movement of center. Anyone else see that?

I just saw it! it does look like it will start moving NE till landfall.

Surface pressure steadily dropping here in Manatee county. We’ll see if that means anything for steering

[CronkPSU]

Huge gullywasher with thunderstorm and lightning all around in Seminole county right now, local street flooding on Semoran

[Extratropical94]

NOAA 964.6 (low bias), 103kt FL, 84kt SFMR

[weeniepatrol]

214500 2617N 08445W 7520 02221 9646 +211 +187 355007 018 025 002 00

[abajan]

I remember something similar happening with Ida a couple years ago. She hovered around the upper 960s to 970s for awhile and intensification was slower than people expected, and people started to think that she wouldn't live up to expectations. She then bombed overnight.

I do think Idalia needs to improve her CDO if she's going to intensify at a faster rate. She's still quite bandy and she will need to beef up her CDO before more appreciable pressure falls can occur in my opinion. My personal guess is that she will peak around 110kts/949mb. Not a professional, very amateur, so don't take that guess too seriously. Look to the NHC if you are in the path of this storm.

My hunch is it'll be well into Cat4 territory as landfall occurs. Not a professional either.