ATL: LEE - Models

[Beef Stew]

The surge from a system like that in Maine would be immense...

[kevin]

The surge from a system like that in Maine would be immense...

True. Remember, for a surge intensity history counts. Katrina was 'only' a cat 3 at landfall but dragged along so much water due to its cat 5 peak earlier. A potentially record-breaking hurricane like Lee would bring a catastrophic surge even if it weakened significantly before landfall. Let's hope this remains a model run and does not become reality.

[AJC3]

Repost from the Lee Discussion thread...

Came across a very good tropical models page from a Univ. of OK PHD student. Has a multi-model ensemble plot of Lee using the GFS, EC, CMC, and UKMET ensembles. Lots of other stuff, too.

Select "Cumulative Plots", "Total Density (no lines)" for the graphic that shows the probability of the center passing within 150km of a point using all 4 ensembles.

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/ensembles.php?storm=AL132023

[Meteorcane]

Well after looking at the latest model runs/ensemble spread maybe feeling a little safer about Turks and Caicos/eastern Bahamas BUT still close enough in some solutions (CMC, a couple GEFS), that I think there is a reasonable worst case of a direct hit... if the subtropical ridge to the north is a big stronger than progged. Fortunately there also seems to be some SW-NE oriented ridging nosing in from the Carib which may almost act as an emergency brake on Lee's westward motion, even before it reaches the western edge of the subtropical ridge to its north (which is when it begins to drift NW).

Further down the track, still looks potentially dicy for Bermuda, NE US, and Atlantic Canada, a big question at this time range (beyond the exact track which obviously we won't nail down for several days) will be intensity and structure. First, will the negative SST anomaly from Franklin/Idalia's wake near and just west of Bermuda recover at all in the next week, or will OHC remain low enough to be a big hinderance to Lee. Secondly will be how the system's structure looks as it transitions into the mid-latitudes. The latest EC verbatim still shows a fairly symmetric deep-warm core system upon its landfall in the NE, which would make sense if it doesn't interact much with the northern trough... otherwise I would assume a more sheared extratropical look by the time it reaches that latitude.

[BobHarlem]

The surge from a system like that in Maine would be immense...

Tide level is vastly more pronounced up there than say the southeast or Gulf, high tide with a landfall would be devastating, low tide, not quite so much.

[PavelGaborik10]

Well there's something you don't see everyday. Euro comes in with an almost direct hit on Nantucket and Cape Cod and the very rare impact to Maine.

https://i.imgur.com/wNjUL0f.png

What a nasty track that would be.

Everyone gets a lashing

[HurricaneBelle]

I like how in the latest GFS future Margot not only helps steer Lee out to sea, but helpfully sticks and heads back west to do the same for future Nigel.

Margot making plans for Nigel

Nice obscure '80s music reference there! Not sure it was intentional...

It most certainly was

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1699866320366342289

[Tireman4]

Margot making plans for Nigel

Nice obscure '80s music reference there! Not sure it was intentional...

It most certainly was

No wonder I had no idea on what this was. I listened to ( and still do) Metal during those years. As far as models....

Eric Webb
@webberweather
I guess the HAFS must have gotten the memo that they were falling behind on Hurricane #Lee's ongoing rapid intensification and decided to forecast #Lee to become one of the strongest hurricanes ever seen in this part of the Atlantic by tomorrow morning.

[LarryWx]

The surge from a system like that in Maine would be immense...

Tide level is vastly more pronounced up there than say the southeast or Gulf, high tide with a landfall would be devastating, low tide, not quite so much.

Excellent point! If the 12Z Euro were to verify closely, the location of the highest E coast tidal range, Eastport, ME, would be very heavily affected by surge. So, the timing in relation to high and low tide would make a larger difference than at other locations on the US E coast. On Sept 16 for example, the predicted high tides are near 19 feet (just after midnight and noon).

https://www.usharbors.com/harbor/maine/ ... -me/tides/

[Hayabusa]

12z, 888mb

[LarryWx]

Regarding the 12Z EPS, I count a total of ~9 US hits excluding operational through 240 hours with ~5 hitting ME (excluding operational), ~3 hitting MA, and 1 hitting NY. Plus a couple more probably will hit on this run after 240. So, ~18%+ US hits on the 12Z EPS not including the operational, which means likely at least on par with the 20% of the previously most active 0Z of today. Or ~20%+ already if including operational.
The point is that the significant increase in hits of the last run was maintained on this new run (12Z).

[BobHarlem]

Regarding the 12Z EPS, I count a total of ~9 US hits excluding operational through 240 hours with ~5 hitting ME (excluding operational), ~3 hitting MA, and 1 hitting NY. Plus a couple more probably will hit on this run after 240. So, ~18%+ US hits on the 12Z EPS not including the operational, which means likely at least on par with the 20% of the previously most active 0Z of today. Or ~20%+ already if including operational.
The point is that the significant increase in hits of the last run was maintained on this new run (12Z).

If you include Canada, only about 6 or 7 members don't make landfall at all.

Bermuda is missing on the Hayabusa maps, but an alarming number go over/close to it as well.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The surge from a system like that in Maine would be immense...

Would make for a real life "Lobster Roll"

[Tekken_Guy]

12z, 888mb
https://i.imgur.com/JKoiWMK.png
https://i.imgur.com/9pywzOw.png

Can you show the NY landfall scenario on its own?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm sure it's been pointed out, but the HAFS-B model takes this to 200mph tomorrow morning.

[BlowHard]

Well there's something you don't see everyday. Euro comes in with an almost direct hit on Nantucket and Cape Cod and the very rare impact to Maine.

https://i.imgur.com/wNjUL0f.png

What a nasty track that would be.

Everyone gets a lashing

Whoa that is crazy, that would be a cat three here and I JUST bought a house on the ocean!!!

[LarryWx]

The 12Z JMA (an inferior model for the tropics) hit E ME just after hour 210 (early 9/16) while still having SLP in the 950s. (The prior 12Z hit just E in New Brunswick on 9/16.) I'm mentioning it because it agrees with the 12Z Euro on location although it is ~9 hours faster.

[Jelmergraaff]

HAFS-B shows an increase in wind speed from 118 kt/136 mph at 21z (so the last advisory) to 170 kt/196 mph at Friday 06z. So, an additional increase of 60 mph after all that we've seen already.

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS shifts a bit left into Nova Scotia (Was clipping Newfoundland at 12z). It's becoming clear that Margot will have a lot of impact on where Lee eventually goes, which is probably going to make this one a nail biter for a while.