ATL: LEE - Models

[PavelGaborik10]

18z GFS gets Lee trapped, rapidly weakens it offshore and then finally makes landfall in southern NS as an extremely weakened system.

Very reminiscent of Teddy from a few years ago, which had very minimal impacts to Nova Scotia.

[Keldeo1997]

This unexpected rapid weakening might throw all the Model's into the trash if Lee keeps weakening to the point where it might miss the Turn North. The UKMET run from a couple of days ago had Lee as a TS missing the turn North. Though it would be shocking if Lee never recovered. It would be just our luck if this happened and Lee got 2nd chance in the Gulf.

[RevanTheJedi96]

18z Euro wants Lee to get dangerously close to the Bahamas.

[ElectricStorm]

0z HAFS-A weakens it to a Cat 1 before becoming a Cat 5 again on Monday

HAFS-B weakens it to a minimal Cat 1 and also has a Cat 5 on Monday

[Iceresistance]

I am surprised that no one mentioned the sub-900 members on the 12z Euro-Ensembles


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4SMu.png


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4SMV.png

[Emmett_Brown]

Did they ever fly the high altitude missions to sample the environment and feed the data into the models? It seems like there is a fair amount of spread of the ensemble members creeping back into the EPS and GEFS in recent runs.

[gatorcane]

Almost a NNE movement once it turns with the 00Z guidance:

[OuterBanker]

Wxman. Tomorrow is my birthday. Hint. I had just turned nine when Donna struck a few days later.

I'll have Lee send you some big waves a few days after your birthday. Get your surf board ready. If you were born 9 years before Donna (1960), then you are about 6 years older than I am. Maybe just watch the big waves roll in vs. surfing them.

Now I know what the 57 means in your name. You too have your red, white and blue card.
And yes I do now watch from the beach. I do spend most of my time in the water at Grace Bay though.

[RevanTheJedi96]

Almost a NNE movement once it turns with the 00Z guidance:
https://i.postimg.cc/0y8P2hBV/13-L-tracks-00z.png

You think out to sea chances are increasing?

[Ianswfl]

18z euro ensembles have a couple of those westward members again!

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 8-240.html

[floridasun]

We know soon if going move north when get north of haiti

[TomballEd]

I am surprised that no one mentioned the sub-900 members on the 12z Euro-Ensembles

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4SMu.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4SMu.png

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4SMV.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4SMV.png

Euro ensembles are the same resolution as the op. Pro-met who specializes in the tropics thinks 9 km is to high a grid resolution for a global.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The trend sucks for those in Nova Scotia but it would be relatively good news for those of us further west. Typically transitioning tropical systems up here have light winds on the western side of the circulation, especially more than 30-40 miles away from what once was the eye. We might still receive gale-force wind gusts with a central or eastern NS landfall and lots of rain but nothing extremely dangerous.

Damn, poor Nova Scotia is becoming the Florida of the North. They seem to get a landfall from at least a Cat 2 equivalent post-tropical system every season now.

[RevanTheJedi96]

The trend sucks for those in Nova Scotia but it would be relatively good news for those of us further west. Typically transitioning tropical systems up here have light winds on the western side of the circulation, especially more than 30-40 miles away from what once was the eye. We might still receive gale-force wind gusts with a central or eastern NS landfall and lots of rain but nothing extremely dangerous.

Damn, poor Nova Scotia is becoming the Florida of the North. They seem to get a landfall from at least a Cat 2 equivalent post-tropical system every season now.

Downeast Maine would get clobbered in some of those Euro and GFS model runs tho

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The trend sucks for those in Nova Scotia but it would be relatively good news for those of us further west. Typically transitioning tropical systems up here have light winds on the western side of the circulation, especially more than 30-40 miles away from what once was the eye. We might still receive gale-force wind gusts with a central or eastern NS landfall and lots of rain but nothing extremely dangerous.

Damn, poor Nova Scotia is becoming the Florida of the North. They seem to get a landfall from at least a Cat 2 equivalent post-tropical system every season now.

Downeast Maine would get clobbered in some of those Euro and GFS model runs tho

Indeed, but I've noticed the models overall trend and consensus models are for a Nova Scotia landfall. That could change but things appear to be trending that way - meaning further east with time. If it verifies it'll be astounding as NS gets clobbered every year now.

[PavelGaborik10]

The trend sucks for those in Nova Scotia but it would be relatively good news for those of us further west. Typically transitioning tropical systems up here have light winds on the western side of the circulation, especially more than 30-40 miles away from what once was the eye. We might still receive gale-force wind gusts with a central or eastern NS landfall and lots of rain but nothing extremely dangerous.

Damn, poor Nova Scotia is becoming the Florida of the North. They seem to get a landfall from at least a Cat 2 equivalent post-tropical system every season now.

Downeast Maine would get clobbered in some of those Euro and GFS model runs tho

Indeed, but I've noticed the models overall trend and consensus models are for a Nova Scotia landfall. That could change but things appear to be trending that way - meaning further east with time. If it verifies it'll be astounding as NS gets clobbered every year now.

While I generally agree, it's still so far out.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Lee pass to the east of Nova Scotia, offshore when all things are said and done.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Downeast Maine would get clobbered in some of those Euro and GFS model runs tho

Indeed, but I've noticed the models overall trend and consensus models are for a Nova Scotia landfall. That could change but things appear to be trending that way - meaning further east with time. If it verifies it'll be astounding as NS gets clobbered every year now.

While I generally agree, it's still so far out.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Lee pass to the east of Nova Scotia, offshore when all things are said and done.

That would be by far the best long-range outcome , of course, there is still Bermuda to worry about.

[RevanTheJedi96]

The trend sucks for those in Nova Scotia but it would be relatively good news for those of us further west. Typically transitioning tropical systems up here have light winds on the western side of the circulation, especially more than 30-40 miles away from what once was the eye. We might still receive gale-force wind gusts with a central or eastern NS landfall and lots of rain but nothing extremely dangerous.

Damn, poor Nova Scotia is becoming the Florida of the North. They seem to get a landfall from at least a Cat 2 equivalent post-tropical system every season now.

Downeast Maine would get clobbered in some of those Euro and GFS model runs tho

Indeed, but I've noticed the models overall trend and consensus models are for a Nova Scotia landfall. That could change but things appear to be trending that way - meaning further east with time. If it verifies it'll be astounding as NS gets clobbered every year now.

No I get what you're saying. GFS and Euro strongly agree on a Nova Scoria landfall. Newest GFS falls in line with that.

[LarryWx]

Was this just luck or was there skill by the 12Z UKMET in predicting a 22 mb rise in SLP from this morning til this evening?

12Z UK
HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 54.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2023 0 18.2N 54.1W 941 112
0000UTC 09.09.2023 12 19.6N 56.3W 963 79
1200UTC 09.09.2023 24 20.3N 58.3W 972 70
0000UTC 10.09.2023 36 20.9N 59.8W 975 62
1200UTC 10.09.2023 48 21.6N 61.2W 974 57
0000UTC 11.09.2023 60 22.2N 62.6W 969 68
1200UTC 11.09.2023 72 23.0N 64.2W 964 69
0000UTC 12.09.2023 84 23.6N 65.7W 959 75
1200UTC 12.09.2023 96 24.0N 67.3W 958 78
0000UTC 13.09.2023 108 24.2N 68.4W 951 81
1200UTC 13.09.2023 120 24.8N 69.3W 949 83
0000UTC 14.09.2023 132 25.6N 69.6W 945 86
1200UTC 14.09.2023 144 26.8N 70.1W 954 75
0000UTC 15.09.2023 156 27.9N 70.0W 949 73
1200UTC 15.09.2023 168 29.5N 69.7W 950 73

[LarryWx]

0Z UK never gets W of 67.7W vs prior run's 70.1W. As a result this passes much closer to Bermuda vs where recent runs were aiming:

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 55.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2023 0 19.1N 55.8W 958 83
1200UTC 09.09.2023 12 20.3N 57.4W 966 77
0000UTC 10.09.2023 24 21.2N 58.8W 970 69
1200UTC 10.09.2023 36 21.9N 60.0W 970 62
0000UTC 11.09.2023 48 22.6N 61.1W 970 66
1200UTC 11.09.2023 60 23.2N 62.5W 968 69
0000UTC 12.09.2023 72 23.7N 63.6W 964 72
1200UTC 12.09.2023 84 23.9N 65.0W 957 80
0000UTC 13.09.2023 96 24.2N 65.9W 952 77
1200UTC 13.09.2023 108 24.5N 66.8W 948 81
0000UTC 14.09.2023 120 24.9N 67.2W 950 79
1200UTC 14.09.2023 132 25.9N 67.7W 951 79
0000UTC 15.09.2023 144 27.5N 67.3W 947 80
1200UTC 15.09.2023 156 29.5N 67.7W 946 79
0000UTC 16.09.2023 168 31.4N 67.5W 944 76