MED: DANIEL - Post-Tropical/Aftermath

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

It quickly turned into curved band pattern. The highest winds are likely around 50-55 kt now and if this trend continues, it could reach hurricane intensity in the evening/night hours before the landfall.

[Landy]

Unironically the best looking tropical cyclone at this time.

[DanieleItalyRm]

I can't stand all the people calling Daniel a subtropical cyclone because on the phase diagrams it's a shallow warm core. Phase diagrams are not always consistent and Daniel's structure is that of a 50kt tropical storm, T3.5dvorak. No doubt.

Why metoffice not classified Daniel as 01M?

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.3N 18.7E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2023 33.3N 18.7E WEAK

00UTC 10.09.2023 32.4N 19.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.09.2023 31.5N 21.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.09.2023 30.1N 23.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.09.2023 29.1N 26.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Europa non è lontana]

High possibility for life-threatening flooding over northern Cyrenaica is apparent with the 12z model runs. GFS, for example, has up to 160mm of rain within 24 hours for Benghazi, which usually gets only 270mm of rain a year.

12z model 24 hour precipitation output:

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The convection weakened significantly near sunset as drier air wrapped into the core, but currently a new burst is firing off near the center. There wasn't any available measurement in the last hours, hopefully the ASCAT may capture it soon.

It is also interesting that despite it will move inland in the morning, most of the models keeps the central pressure quite low until Monday morning, and even show some decrease tomorrow after the landfall.

Full daytime animation:

[Europa non è lontana]

Four oil ports in Libya closed due to Daniel https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSS8N39F01L

Provisional government in eastern Libya declares two days off for non-essential workers https://libyaobserver.ly/news/hor-designated-government-declares-sunday-and-monday-holiday-east-libya-over-storm-daniel

State of emergency declared in Benghazi, evacuation of low-lying settlements ordered and curfew imposed. Coastal areas in other districts have had evacuations issued https://alwasat.ly/news/libya/411477

[AJC3]

Four oil ports in Libya closed due to Daniel https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSS8N39F01L

Provisional government in eastern Libya declares two days off for non-essential workers https://libyaobserver.ly/news/hor-designated-government-declares-sunday-and-monday-holiday-east-libya-over-storm-daniel

State of emergency declared in Benghazi, evacuation of low-lying settlements ordered and curfew imposed. Coastal areas in other districts have had evacuations issued https://alwasat.ly/news/libya/411477

It's good to see a threatened country take solid preparedness actions like this from a hazardous weather event type that doesn't happen all that often.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

ASCAT-C measured maximum winds around 45 kt after 19Z but ASCAT-B showed slightly weaker winds less then an hour later, in line with the degradation of the convection. Given the structural changes and the possibly undersampling of ASCAT's, it likely peaked around 16Z with 55 kt winds.

[Landy]

It appears Daniel has made landfall near Benghazi, Libya earlier than expected.

[doomhaMwx]

AQUA MODIS
09-09-2023 12:50Z

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/Top_Disaster/status/1700530411737411850

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The cyclone moved eastward in the night faster than anticipated by the models, currently (06Z) it is located near its forecast position for 11-12Z. Benina report incorrect pressure data of 1099.3 at 00Z which likely was 999.3 hPa in real based on the 21Z data and the 6.1 hPa decrease in the station level pressure between the 2 observations. https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=62053&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2023&mes=09&day=10&hora=06

Due to the faster motion and weaker convection, it seems that rain treat decreased, espacially in the area of Bengasi, however, total precipitation of around 100-150 mm can't be ruled out locally further east. Here is the yesterday's data, it has already fallen 43 mm in Al-Marj: https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&state=Liby&osum=no&fmt=html&ord=REV&ano=2023&mes=09&day=10&hora=06&ndays=1&Send=send

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Convection increased on the north side of the still well-defined circulation and also became a bit deeper in the last hours, so the models maybe won't be bad after all with the very high rain amount near the coastline. Benina reported (10-min.) sustained winds of 35 kt at 09Z and similar winds or at least gusts may occur near the center as dust storm is also evident on the satellite images around the 'eye' (mainly on the cloud-free southern parts). Despetie the disorganized structure due to land interaction and stronger wind shear, it is likely still a TS.

[Europa non è lontana]

Wind impacts in Benghazi https://twitter.com/AhmedElmadni/status/1700682371111035327?

Wind impacts in Benghazi https://twitter.com/alsaaa24/status/1700764719324262561?

Wind/dust impacts on the inland Tobruk–Ajdabiya Road https://twitter.com/alsaaa24/status/1700825007406891317

Reported flooding in Tacnis https://twitter.com/almasartvlibya/status/1700826642950590659?

Flooding in Battah https://twitter.com/almasartvlibya/status/1700827765992272265?

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Nice satellite picture by NASA MODIS Aqua.

[shah83]

Good ole fashioned landphoon, Aussie Style!

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Today's satellite animation, the extensive sandstorm around its circulation is also visible very well, especially in the late afternoon.
Al-Marj reported rain of 142 mm in the last 12 hours and the total amount has already reached 185 mm, so 200 mm looks possible. https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=62054&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2023&mes=09&day=10&hora=18
Also the central pressure is likely still below 1000 hPa since Tobruk reported pressure of 1001.7 hPa further east, so the models were correct about the unchanged or even slightly decreasing pressure after the landfall. https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=62062&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2023&mes=09&day=10&hora=18

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/Top_Disaster/status/1700891188876996834

[AJC3]

Wind impacts in Benghazi https://twitter.com/AhmedElmadni/status/1700682371111035327?

Wind impacts in Benghazi https://twitter.com/alsaaa24/status/1700764719324262561?

Wind/dust impacts on the inland Tobruk–Ajdabiya Road https://twitter.com/alsaaa24/status/1700825007406891317

Reported flooding in Tacnis https://twitter.com/almasartvlibya/status/1700826642950590659?

Flooding in Battah https://twitter.com/almasartvlibya/status/1700827765992272265?

That last clip from Battah.

I fear there will be more casualties in Libya from flooding, but I hope not.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

A bit surprisingly, ASCAT still indicated maximum winds of 40-45 kt near the coastline around 19Z, but Derna is also reporting (10-min.) sustained winds of 40 kt currently (21Z). https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=62059&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2023&mes=09&day=10&hora=21
However, satellite images show that the low level center has started to move away to east from the convective cluster, so Daniel may become post-tropical soon.