ATL: MARGOT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 13 2023

Very little change is noted with Margot's convective structure
since the last advisory. The cyclone continues to exhibit a double
eyewall structure based on a 1527Z AMSR-2 pass, and Margot's eye
still occasionally appears in conventional GOES-16 IR and VIS
imagery. Given the lack of change with the hurricane's internal
structure and appearance, the intensity will be maintained at 80 kt
for this advisory. The motion has bent just slightly to the right
since this morning and is now moving due north at 6 kt.

Margot continues to gradually slow down as it moves within the flow
between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic and a narrow
upper trough to its west. A general northward motion should continue
over the next day or so before the track forecast becomes very
challenging. Margot will then become caught in weak steering
currents, with the global models showing a blocking ridge developing
to the north of the cyclone by late week into the weekend. There
remain notable differences between the GFS and ECMWF with regards to
the strength and position of this ridge, which has large
implications in the longer-range track of Margot, but there has been
some tightening of the model consensus since this morning. This
supports the storm making a gradual clockwise loop between 36-72 hrs
as the ridge initially builds north of the cyclone and then slides
off to the east. By 120 hrs, the storm will likely begin
accelerating off to the northeast as it gets picked up by the
westerlies, but the overall track forecast confidence remains low
given the model spread late in the forecast period.

Increasing deep-layer shear during the next 24 to 36 hrs,
entrainment of drier air, and a likelihood of Margot upwelling
cooler waters should result in a steady weakening of the cyclone
going through the end of the week and into the weekend. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the previous one and shows a gradual
decrease in strength through 72 hrs, in good agreement with the
consensus of the intensity aids. Although this forecast keeps Margot
a tropical cyclone through day 5, simulated satellite imagery from
the global models suggests these increasingly hostile environmental
factors could cause the system to lose organized convection and
become post-tropical by early next week as the storm lingers west
of the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 34.7N 40.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 35.5N 40.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 36.4N 40.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 36.7N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 36.5N 39.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 36.0N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 35.6N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 36.5N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 39.5N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Orrison/Blake

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

Margot this morning

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

[ScottNAtlanta]

The GFS wants to curve this around to the west making a loop before it goes out. That is supposed to help pull future Nigel out. Not sure I buy that.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

Margot

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[dukeblue219]

Anyone know the record duration for an Atlantic storm that never crosses W of 41deg (or similar longitude)?

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Bye, Margot! You had a good run.

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023

...MARGOT NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...

[cycloneye]

Bye, Margot! You had a good run.

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023

...MARGOT NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...

Got 12.9 ACE units that is not bad to contribute lifting the North Atlantic numbers and see if it get's very close to the hyperactive line of 159.6. As of this post it has 106.4