ATL: OPHELIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vdogg]

Earlier today, tracks were going over New Bern NC, now I see updated ones inching W to almost Jacksonville NC

This morning's GFS vs evening. Both images are for Saturday Midday. Shift west.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023092206/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_7.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023092212/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_6.png

I think that west shift is a tad overdone based on current motion. Definite shift west, but mot that much.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ophelia is actually building an inner core, wasn’t expecting that. Further evidence it has transitioned to tropical

[KirbyDude25]

Ophelia is actually building an inner core, wasn’t expecting that. Further evidence it has transitioned to tropical

The magic of Gulf Stream waters!
Joking aside, I wouldn't be surprised if the 11 PM or 2 AM EDT update upgraded this to a hurricane. There's an argument that it already is one, but the next recon flight should resolve those arguments one way or the other.

[SouthernBreeze]

Earlier today, tracks were going over New Bern NC, now I see updated ones inching W to almost Jacksonville NC

This morning's GFS vs evening. Both images are for Saturday Midday. Looks like shift west and weaker.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023092206/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_7.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023092212/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_6.png

it would weaken faster the farther inland (west) it goes, as over the outer banks is still basically over the ocean

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1705392052538949948

[Vdogg]

Earlier today, tracks were going over New Bern NC, now I see updated ones inching W to almost Jacksonville NC

This morning's GFS vs evening. Both images are for Saturday Midday. Looks like shift west and weaker.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023092206/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_7.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023092212/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_6.png

The pressure is already lower than the init value. I wouldn't put too much stock in that run.

[Vdogg]

https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1705392052538949948

Can confirm. We usually ride out tropical storms here cause we get a couple every year, but bars are starting to close now, and police are closing the streets.

[BobHarlem]

Mark Sudduth has a bunch of cameras all over North Carolina for Ophelia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cno537ygtaU

[youtube]https://youtu.be/cno537ygtaU[/youtube]

[Vdogg]

Ophelia is actually building an inner core, wasn’t expecting that. Further evidence it has transitioned to tropical

The magic of Gulf Stream waters!
Joking aside, I wouldn't be surprised if the 11 PM or 2 AM EDT update upgraded this to a hurricane. There's an argument that it already is one, but the next recon flight should resolve those arguments one way or the other.

Should've been upgraded at 5, but I understand why they didn't...

[cheezyWXguy]

Ophelia is actually building an inner core, wasn’t expecting that. Further evidence it has transitioned to tropical

The magic of Gulf Stream waters!
Joking aside, I wouldn't be surprised if the 11 PM or 2 AM EDT update upgraded this to a hurricane. There's an argument that it already is one, but the next recon flight should resolve those arguments one way or the other.

Should've been upgraded at 5, but I understand why they didn't...

Yeah it’s definitely close one way or the other. Inner core development looked good for a while but looks a little wonky now. Wide swath of 70-75 mph winds about 1000-1500ft up on radar. Would prefer to see readings closer to 80 to feel more certain.

[cycloneye]

The magic of Gulf Stream waters!
Joking aside, I wouldn't be surprised if the 11 PM or 2 AM EDT update upgraded this to a hurricane. There's an argument that it already is one, but the next recon flight should resolve those arguments one way or the other.

Should've been upgraded at 5, but I understand why they didn't...

Yeah it’s definitely close one way or the other. Inner core development looked good for a while but looks a little wonky now. Wide swath of 70-75 mph winds about 1000-1500ft up on radar. Would prefer to see readings closer to 80 to feel more certain.

Plane is on route to Ophelia and we will know how is the structure of the storm, how are the highest wind speeds and how low is the pressure.

[ElectricStorm]

Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...OPHELIA'S CENTER FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY SATURDAY...
...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 76.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

[TheDreamTraveler]

It's already been a bit breezy here in PA. Wasn't expecting to notice anything until later

[Ubuntwo]

Radar velocities have come down 10-15 mph from the ~85 mph couple hours ago, I suspect peak may have been missed.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Ophelia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7Ujp323kGo

[Nimbus]

I get the sense they won't upgrade no matter what recon finds unless it is dramatically far above expectations.

They left this a tropical storm but if I were near the coast where this was going to make landfall I'd make preps for surge and power outage. Winds near landfall are going to be stronger than those 980 mb cold core northeasters they get in the winter.

[ElectricStorm]

Cloud tops are much warmer than earlier, I think it's peaked and is on the decline now, though maybe recon data will surprise me

[Steve]

https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1705392052538949948

Definitely cool to see but a big oversell on “absolutely insane.” Looks like some tropical storm level winds. Why do so many people use extreme terms - insane, ridiculous, jaw dropping, mind blowing, stunning, etc.?

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1705392052538949948

Definitely cool to see but a big oversell on “absolutely insane.” Looks like some tropical storm level winds. Why do so many people use extreme terms - insane, ridiculous, jaw dropping, mind blowing, stunning, etc.?

Increased “engagement” with their posts