MarioProtVI wrote:This has to be the second time this year the Atlantic immediately starts going crazy after the EPac does something batshit insane - first it was Jova’s EI into a C5 followed by Lee’s EI into a C5 24 hours later, and now with Otis doing EI to C5, Tammy suddenly starts to (probably) RI. It’s probably a C2 now and given trends I would not at all be surprised if it tries to sneak out a C3 peak before weakening. This El Niño is surely a bizarre one.
Well in this case, the upper level ridge is in a favorable position for Otis, and possibly enhancing it, and hence interacting somewhat with Tammy downstream with the buckling of the jet. The wavelike pattern in the stream also puts Tammy at the favorable position of the upper jet streak. The positioning of the ridge probably helps swing Tammy on a more northward or perhaps even a temporary NW trajectory rather than swinging east immediately on the upper level wind " jet highway". Otis is adding at least some strength to this ridge. It also helps Tammy remain for now on the lower right quadrant of a jetstreak, which is favorable for it to maintain its intensity or even to possibly see some strengthening. Models last week were showing Tammy being on the east of a longwave trough and being swept up by the jet stream into the front by around now beginning to shoot towards Europe.
The El Nino is definitely bizarre in that despite a strong ocean warming, the atmosphere has responded like a weaker event at least until recently ( the trades have weakened on average fairly consistently starting around late Sept. and we have even seen some WWBs which were near absent earlier in the year). This has kept the Atlantic hurricane season in active state given the very much warmer than average sea surface temperatures there. Normally the EPAC and ATL are negatively correlated in activity, but the ocean temperatures are very warm in the east Pacific partially due to El Nino and this has created the possibility of rapid intensification (there, not Tammy) given the right circumstances.
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