Texas Winter 2023-2024

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2401 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:40 pm

Not sure it means much, given it's the 12k NAM, but the s/w is stronger and slower through 57hrs.

Also, the piece of energy we are interested in is still part of the larger trough in the NPAC and hasn't sheared off yet.

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2402 Postby kirium » Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:49 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Not sure it means much, given it's the 12k NAM, but the s/w is stronger and slower through 57hrs.

Also, the piece of energy we are interested in is still part of the larger trough in the NPAC and hasn't sheared off yet.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024011118/gfs_z500_vort_namer_2.png



In layman's terms, what exactly does that mean or are you thinking? :) :double:
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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2403 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:53 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:18z Euro is mostly snow north of I-20. Makes sense, it's hard to mix with such low temps. Mixed bag south into C TX.


It's way drier though which concerns me. We've come too far today to go backwards and I really hope the 0z reserves it


For Oklahoma yeah. For TX we are trending better. There's an STJ linkage. Two precip shields converging.

The STJ component is wild card. It will provide much more qpf the more it can get injected into the flow within the southern sector. This is why guidance intensifies the band as it crosses Red River.


Unless a Gulf low sucks up all the moisture like happens a lot it seems. Lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2404 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:03 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2405 Postby Texas Snow » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:03 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
It's way drier though which concerns me. We've come too far today to go backwards and I really hope the 0z reserves it


For Oklahoma yeah. For TX we are trending better. There's an STJ linkage. Two precip shields converging.

The STJ component is wild card. It will provide much more qpf the more it can get injected into the flow within the southern sector. This is why guidance intensifies the band as it crosses Red River.


Unless a Gulf low sucks up all the moisture like happens a lot it seems. Lol.




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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2406 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:05 pm

Texas Snow wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
For Oklahoma yeah. For TX we are trending better. There's an STJ linkage. Two precip shields converging.

The STJ component is wild card. It will provide much more qpf the more it can get injected into the flow within the southern sector. This is why guidance intensifies the band as it crosses Red River.


Unless a Gulf low sucks up all the moisture like happens a lot it seems. Lol.




https://media1.tenor.com/m/UwSX0RlXgWMAAAAd/you-take-that-back-take-that-back.gif



Is that latest model post above the low sucking up the moisture?

Did NTX just get NAM'ed?
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2407 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:07 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
It's way drier though which concerns me. We've come too far today to go backwards and I really hope the 0z reserves it


For Oklahoma yeah. For TX we are trending better. There's an STJ linkage. Two precip shields converging.

The STJ component is wild card. It will provide much more qpf the more it can get injected into the flow within the southern sector. This is why guidance intensifies the band as it crosses Red River.


Unless a Gulf low sucks up all the moisture like happens a lot it seems. Lol.


That plus how dry arctic air can be has me a little concerned for sure. We were looking so good earlier... Ugh. People were saying 10 inches possible 8 hours ago... :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2408 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:20 pm

Now in RGEM range…

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kirium
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2409 Postby kirium » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:36 pm




So it looks like all the moisture that was projected into Oklahoma is now getting sucked into Texas. Does this mean Texas sucks? I kid , I kid :)

I lived in Frisco for 14 yrs so there's always that!
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jaguars_22
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2410 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:39 pm

Can I ask why the coast of Texas on the rgem is warmer and doesn’t get the cold front? It shows us in green lol
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mmmmsnouts
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2411 Postby mmmmsnouts » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:41 pm

Liquid equivalent of sleet averages 2.5 to 1 so you would need roughly 0.4” QPF to get an inch of sleet. That RGEM run might not even be enough to mess up the roads in DFW.
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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2412 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:53 pm

mmmmsnouts wrote:Liquid equivalent of sleet averages 2.5 to 1 so you would need roughly 0.4” QPF to get an inch of sleet. That RGEM run might not even be enough to mess up the roads in DFW.


Precip just getting started at the end of this run, plus it’s mid teens…anything instantly freezes on contact

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2413 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:07 pm

GFS correcting closer to the NAM. Not a lot of moisture to work with thankfully but won't take much to cause issues on city bridges and overpasses.

Really cuts back on the storm/snow totals for Oklahoma. Moved a bit toward the Euro it would appear (at least on this run).
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Stratton23
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2414 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:18 pm

CMC really has temps in the 50’s for me in se texas with no frozen precip, almost 20 degrees warmer than the NAM, doesn’t make alot of sense with the front coming through early sunday
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2415 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:27 pm

I know it’s weird! Rgem keeps it warmer at coast too
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2416 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:31 pm

Upstream temps this weekend are modelled to approach -70F in MT and temps as far south as NW OK look to be -10s. I cannot see how this air mass puts brakes on before it gets well into the Gulf.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2417 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:32 pm

Unless the shortwave is stronger and sucking air out of the gulf which is warmer… idk
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2418 Postby cstrunk » Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:36 pm

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0009.html

Tornado watch with 50/40 probabilities issued east of DFW/Waco NE through the Arklatex up to Little Rock.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2419 Postby Quixotic » Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:36 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Not sure it means much, given it's the 12k NAM, but the s/w is stronger and slower through 57hrs.

Also, the piece of energy we are interested in is still part of the larger trough in the NPAC and hasn't sheared off yet.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024011118/gfs_z500_vort_namer_2.png

So, in 09-10, shortwaves did this exact thing: they deepened and slowed down on approach. Thinking Feb and Mar of 2010 specifically. Hell, you could say it about Christmas Eve 2009. Something to consider. The STJ was more robust that winter.
Last edited by Quixotic on Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2420 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:38 pm

Watch out tonight just east of Dallas. Tornado Watch out and storms expected to develop just after midnight 

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