Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Itryatgolf]

For fun, 500mb one of North Texas' greatest run of winter/snow...mid Feb 1978.

https://i.imgur.com/rN3C6M9.gif

https://i.imgur.com/yRjaees.png

So there is enough cold air within the low to provide snow for Texas? That's the only thing i was curious about, since it's coming directly from the Pacific.

I don't think it will be all that cold. It is later in the winter though, early on there was absolutely no cold. Now it's just modified piece of that Alaskan air. It takes a lot of pieces to go right but not as much needed compared to earlier blocking.

I think if and when the mjo gets into the colder phases is when the models and ensembles will or should start indicating colder and stormier pattern imo. I know we need the rain, but also want another opportunity at a winter storm or winter storms

[Itryatgolf]

New euro weeklies suggest we start getting cold during the first week of february, and the cold pattern stays locked in through the entire month and into the middle of march

Stratton, I hope they are correct and if so, ensembles will respond accordingly and op runs

[orangeblood]

So there is enough cold air within the low to provide snow for Texas? That's the only thing i was curious about, since it's coming directly from the Pacific.

I don't think it will be all that cold. It is later in the winter though, early on there was absolutely no cold. Now it's just modified piece of that Alaskan air. It takes a lot of pieces to go right but not as much needed compared to earlier blocking.

I think if and when the mjo gets into the colder phases is when the models and ensembles will or should start indicating colder and stormier pattern imo. I know we need the rain, but also want another opportunity at a winter storm or winter storms

A common theme of the most memorable snow periods for the southern US is a MJO crash out of 7 into null phases or rotation into 8. Just don't want to see hover and flexed in 6/7 too long...

[Ntxw]

I don't think it will be all that cold. It is later in the winter though, early on there was absolutely no cold. Now it's just modified piece of that Alaskan air. It takes a lot of pieces to go right but not as much needed compared to earlier blocking.

I think if and when the mjo gets into the colder phases is when the models and ensembles will or should start indicating colder and stormier pattern imo. I know we need the rain, but also want another opportunity at a winter storm or winter storms

A common theme of the most memorable snow periods for the southern US is a MJO crash out of 7 into null phases or rotation into 8. Just don't want to see hover and flexed in 6/7 too long...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

We are definitely where we would want to be. As far as winter MJO progression 1978 has been a decent structural course.

[Itryatgolf]

I think if and when the mjo gets into the colder phases is when the models and ensembles will or should start indicating colder and stormier pattern imo. I know we need the rain, but also want another opportunity at a winter storm or winter storms

A common theme of the most memorable snow periods for the southern US is a MJO crash out of 7 into null phases or rotation into 8. Just don't want to see hover and flexed in 6/7 too long...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

We are definitely where we would want to be. As far as winter MJO progression 1978 has been a decent structural course.

https://i.imgur.com/HeWK8wu.gif

https://i.imgur.com/8GCVJ69.gif

https://i.imgur.com/0zv2n7H.gif

Imo, if any of those past year mjo progressions will be similar to this year, we don't want to see the mjo get hung up in phase 6 and 7 and don't want a loop back in phase 6, if possible to extend winter

[Stratton23]

Noaas 3-4 week outlook favors above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures across the lone star state starting around the 9-10th and beyond

[Cpv17]

Noaas 3-4 week outlook favors above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures across the lone star state starting around the 9-10th and beyond

That MJO is gonna be a huge key to February, no doubt. Even Cosgrove is talking about it.

[Iceresistance]

5 Inch Hail in a General Thunderstorm area?? With 80 dBZ reading near Newton, TX??

 https://twitter.com/andrewjustinWX/status/1751084372957003811

[Cpv17]

5 Inch Hail in a General Thunderstorm area?? With 80 dBZ reading near Newton, TX??

https://twitter.com/andrewjustinWX/status/1751084372957003811

The atmosphere is on roids!

[Stratton23]

Even though its long range, the overnight GFS shows what we need in the setup for some snow in texas, not that it means much at 11 days out but it has marginal cold and a system to work with, just pointing out the potential in this pattern

[Lagreeneyes03]

New euro weeklies suggest we start getting cold during the first week of february, and the cold pattern stays locked in through the entire month and into the middle of march

What happened to the quick March warmup? ....

[CaptinCrunch]

5 Inch Hail in a General Thunderstorm area?? With 80 dBZ reading near Newton, TX??

https://twitter.com/andrewjustinWX/status/1751084372957003811

5" sleet pellets, hate to see the size of the snowflakes, 12" diameter would be incredible...

[Iceresistance]

Rainfall in TX is absurd


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCS70.png

I got that from this: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

[rwfromkansas]

Got 1.84 IMBY for the week here in north Fort Worth with 3.33 for the month so not bad for January!

Finally got a real good rain yesterday and overnight.

[CaptinCrunch]

Just looked at the NTX lake level report, and while many of the lakes around DFW and ares to the S and SE of here have benefited from the rains, our lakes to the west of Tarrant Co and to the NW are still in dire need of rain. Most of the lakes and reservoirs are still multiple feet below normal levels, and need those multi inche rains across the western and northwestern parts of NCTX.

[Ntxw]

Just looked at the NTX lake level report, and while many of the lakes around DFW and ares to the S and SE of here have benefited from the rains, our lakes to the west of Tarrant Co and to the NW are still in dire need of rain. Most of the lakes and reservoirs are still multiple feet below normal levels, and need those multi inche rains across the western and northwestern parts of NCTX.

Winter tends to benefit the southern half of the state more due to location of jet. It will be mid to late Spring that the Northwest part of the state and Oklahoma cashes in. Annual cycle with ENSO interference.

[Ntxw]

The analog group is pretty spicy for winter in mid-Feb. About another calm week before model mayhem and shifting of the weather pattern. Pac jet extension will be extenuation of STJ.

Staple El Nino late winter.

[bubba hotep]

Just looked at the NTX lake level report, and while many of the lakes around DFW and ares to the S and SE of here have benefited from the rains, our lakes to the west of Tarrant Co and to the NW are still in dire need of rain. Most of the lakes and reservoirs are still multiple feet below normal levels, and need those multi inche rains across the western and northwestern parts of NCTX.

This next system looks like it might be more west/northwest biased in rainfall location. Hopefully, that works out well for y'all!

[Brent]

Euro is even interesting next weekend here. Some torch. We have two days barely in the 60s

[Ntxw]

Euro is even interesting next weekend here. Some torch. We have two days barely in the 60s

Pattern is crazy blocked. One of these storms will hit. It's February, deep southern snow is a thing.