2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1754478005668217302

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1754478876703539315

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1754502627046445213

Discussion on Azores high:
 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1754506355514171542

[wxman57]

One clue as to the strength of the Azores-Bermuda High this year is SSTs in the deep tropics. The current negative NAO is due to a weaker high center. As a result, SSTs are warmer than last year at this time. Trade winds have been lower than normal, so not much upwelling of cooler water. Will this pattern continue through the season?

El Nino should be declining over the coming months, replaced by neutral conditions then possibly a weak to moderate La Nina by peak season.

As for analogs, one of the best I could find is 1998. I was talking to Phil Klotzbach. He agrees on 1998 as a good analog. Lots of subtropical activity, indicating a weaker Bermuda High. Georges made a significant impact on the NE Caribbean & Mississippi. Of course, there was also powerful Hurricane Mitch in the western Caribbean. For now, I'm thinking above normal activity with the majority of hurricanes north of the Caribbean again.

1998: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1998.png

http://wxman57.com/images/SSTs.JPG

[zzzh]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1754564764770959402

[SFLcane]

One clue as to the strength of the Azores-Bermuda High this year is SSTs in the deep tropics. The current negative NAO is due to a weaker high center. As a result, SSTs are warmer than last year at this time. Trade winds have been lower than normal, so not much upwelling of cooler water. Will this pattern continue through the season?

El Nino should be declining over the coming months, replaced by neutral conditions then possibly a weak to moderate La Nina by peak season.

As for analogs, one of the best I could find is 1998. I was talking to Phil Klotzbach. He agrees on 1998 as a good analog. Lots of subtropical activity, indicating a weaker Bermuda High. Georges made a significant impact on the NE Caribbean & Mississippi. Of course, there was also powerful Hurricane Mitch in the western Caribbean. For now, I'm thinking above normal activity with the majority of hurricanes north of the Caribbean again.

1998: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1998.png

http://wxman57.com/images/SSTs.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/SSTs.JPG

Just for the sake of it i don't see any climate model "for now" suggesting a weak high with tc's tracking north of the caribbean infact the total opposite. Surely one must never rely on precip maps for hurricane tracks but they do provide clues and they did pretty good last season.







August z500 looks like widespread ridging look that could actually send stuff towards the caribbean.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Benchmark in recent times in terms of preseason anomalous warmth is 2010, and it seems we've definitely surpassed that at this point. Granted 2010 didn't start to warm appreciably until the latter half of the month, but with the NAO ready to turn negative again and persist it wouldn't be an unreasonable assessment to assume we'll continue to stay ahead. At this rate widespread +2C anoms in the MDR by the end of the month remains a distinct possibility, as weenie as that may sound. Idk if there's a pre-satellite era year that comes close to this because I don't recall a year from the 60s onward which had such an extreme look so early in the year, regardless of what climo period you use. Could be wrong though.

Long way to go and still many details to iron out in the meantime, but if seasonal guidance is correct this look isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

[SFLcane]

What did the cansips show around this time last year you may ask? A mostly dry caribbean which verified nicely

[WiscoWx02]

One clue as to the strength of the Azores-Bermuda High this year is SSTs in the deep tropics. The current negative NAO is due to a weaker high center. As a result, SSTs are warmer than last year at this time. Trade winds have been lower than normal, so not much upwelling of cooler water. Will this pattern continue through the season?

El Nino should be declining over the coming months, replaced by neutral conditions then possibly a weak to moderate La Nina by peak season.

As for analogs, one of the best I could find is 1998. I was talking to Phil Klotzbach. He agrees on 1998 as a good analog. Lots of subtropical activity, indicating a weaker Bermuda High. Georges made a significant impact on the NE Caribbean & Mississippi. Of course, there was also powerful Hurricane Mitch in the western Caribbean. For now, I'm thinking above normal activity with the majority of hurricanes north of the Caribbean again.

1998: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1998.png

http://wxman57.com/images/SSTs.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/SSTs.JPG

Just for the sake of it i don't see any climate model "for now" suggesting a weak high with tc's tracking north of the caribbean infact the total opposite. Surely one must never rely on precip maps for hurricane tracks but they do provide clues and they did pretty good last season.

https://i.postimg.cc/JnP1K3Pw/ukmet.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/tgzyCt01/hhh.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/7hGp7SRn/llloo.png

August z500 looks like widespread ridging look that could actually send stuff towards the caribbean.

https://i.postimg.cc/QCQv0jXF/8CUmJCuw.png

I side with Wxman for now. Given the lack of Caribbean activity since 2009 most years except 2020, I usually assume going into the season that the Caribbean will continue to be a graveyard from a purely observational and casual perspective, but people who live down in the Caribbean should by no means apply this same assumption, it would be a dangerous gamble.

[WiscoWx02]

This Hovmoller diagram says only one thing to me...Atlantic SSTA's are only going to in the coming week or so.

[cycloneye]

The hyped 2024 season is causing very much discussions in social media and Storm2k is no exception. The fast pace this 2024 indicators thread is going, if it keeps up, would be the most posted and with the most pages one. The 2023 indicators thread one was only in the second page by this time in Febuary and right now is on page 11. Each page consists of 20 posts.

[Blown Away]

What did the cansips show around this time last year you may ask? A mostly dry caribbean which verified nicely

SFLcane, great point! Look at the drastic contrast predicted for ASO 2024!

[TheWisestofAll]

Benchmark in recent times in terms of preseason anomalous warmth is 2010, and it seems we've definitely surpassed that at this point. Granted 2010 didn't start to warm appreciably until the latter half of the month, but with the NAO ready to turn negative again and persist it wouldn't be an unreasonable assessment to assume we'll continue to stay ahead. At this rate widespread +2C anoms in the MDR by the end of the month remains a distinct possibility, as weenie as that may sound. Idk if there's a pre-satellite era year that comes close to this because I don't recall a year from the 60s onward which had such an extreme look so early in the year, regardless of what climo period you use. Could be wrong though.

Long way to go and still many details to iron out in the meantime, but if seasonal guidance is correct this look isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
https://i.ibb.co/Xscn0Hz/ezgif-com-animated-gif-maker.gif

1878 is one year that stands out. Even when using current climo the MDR appears as red hot. Can't imagine what the open MDR was like for the storms that went undetected.
https://i.ibb.co/JzwQ58M/20240204-221120.jpg

[Category5Kaiju]

2024's MDR sst anomalies are about to make 2010 look like child's play. I mean, wow, talk about a potential +2 or more degree C departure from the norm across a vast swath of the region. All in February, too. We better hope that the Bermuda High is weak during the season, or else we're gonna be in some trouble.

[Teban54]

Given the lack of Caribbean activity since 2009 most years except 2020

Unless you're defining "Caribbean activity" as major hurricanes only, I don't think this is true. Just 2021-23 alone did have decent amounts of storms in the Caribbean (Elsa, Fred, Grace, Ida, Bonnie, Ian, Julia, Lisa, Bret, Franklin, Idalia), just that none of them, except Ian at the last minute, became major hurricanes until they moved out. Not to mention Maria (150 kt in the NE Caribbean), Matthew, Otto (around Thanksgiving! latest MH on record) and Sandy (which peaked as a Cat 3 in the Caribbean). 2010 had 3 late-season Caribbean hurricanes and 2011 had Cat 3 Rina.

Expecting a 2020-like Carribean is like expecting a 2017-like MDR or 2005-like GOM. Just because that didn't materialize doesn't make it a graveyard.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1754540413350732180

[NotSparta]

The hyped 2024 season is causing very much discussions in social media and Storm2k is no exception. The fast pace this 2024 indicators thread is going, if it keeps up, would be the most posted and with the most pages one. The 2023 indicators thread one was only in the second page by this time in Febuary and right now is on page 11. Each page consists of 20 posts.

https://i.imgur.com/fKxhbng.gif

Note the subtropics being full of convection - this shows they are dominated by low pressure right now. Not much of a subtropical ridge even now

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1754870262070182067

[cycloneye]

Andy says"pretty striking" about MDR warming.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1754892837265781029

[SFLcane]

Just wanted to share a few more maps showing the "long tracker signal" and what looks like a very wet caribbean heading into the peak of the season. Would certainly not surprise me to see a caribbean hurricane in July.

[SFLcane]

Samething i have been saying in regards to the Conus and Caribbean. Lets hope things change!

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1754870262070182067

[Teban54]

Samething i have been saying in regards to the Conus and Caribbean. Lets hope things change!

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1754870262070182067

This reply is either a cautionary tale or a harbinger depending on how you look at it:
 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1754892702582227202



I'll note that 2010 did have 3 Caribbean hurricanes in Oct-Nov.