Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/noaaclimate/status/1755621028972171589

[Ntxw]

 https://x.com/mikemorgankfor/status/1755668226229326276

For Oklahoma a 500mb ULL track along and just north of the Red River negative tilt is ideal with surface low along I-20. For North Texas we're watching for trends of any southern shift where the ULL is more along I-20 and surface low in Central to SE Texas.

Temps are very marginal though everywhere outside the panhandle, it's barely cold enough beneath the precip band, well above freezing outside of it.

[Brent]

We only need about 2 inches here to be the best storm in 2 years sad

[Stratton23]

EPS and GEPS have a decent snowfall signal for texas lol, that system around the 19-20th will be our best opportunity for frozen fun

[DallasAg]

 https://x.com/mikemorgankfor/status/1755668226229326276

For Oklahoma a 500mb ULL track along and just north of the Red River negative tilt is ideal with surface low along I-20. For North Texas we're watching for trends of any southern shift where the ULL is more along I-20 and surface low in Central to SE Texas.

Temps are very marginal though everywhere outside the panhandle, it's barely cold enough beneath the precip band, well above freezing outside of it.

There was an early season storm across OK last year that had some of this same phenomenon IIRC. Mainly west central OK. OKC ended up in the "bubble" of 33-34 degree rain...just couldn't get the profile to flip to snow.

Whoever gets it will enjoy nice big flakes and snow that probably melts the next day. And just wet roads. That's all the best kind of storm in the south!

[Wthrfan]

Wthrfan not really lol, the operational GFS is completely lost with the pattern, which is basically what he is saying, and its true, the GFS has been so awful this year with seeing any sort of cold air, its 500 mb height patten is not even like its ensemble, Euro and CMC model guidance have been consistent, so his forecast remains the same

Good to hear then!

[Stratton23]

wthrfan ive been private messaging cosgrove, says a blend a of the euro and CMC models are more what will likely be closer to reality, we will see, the GFS and Euro both were both downright awful with our arctic blast back in January, so many moving parts to this pattern which is giving the models fits right now, we just need enough cold air to do the trick

[txtwister78]

wthrfan ive been private messaging cosgrove, says a blend a of the euro and CMC models are more what will likely be closer to reality, we will see, the GFS and Euro both were both downright awful with our arctic blast back in January, so many moving parts to this pattern which is giving the models fits right now, we just need enough cold air to do the trick

I think Cosgrove is on an island right now with Bastardi to be honest. Bastardi sounded so defeated today in his daily video. Teleconnections on the weeklies don't look as promising and he knows it (especially the EPO now going positive late Feb into March). Even the AO is trending closer to neutral by late Feb. That's code for stick a fork in the blockbuster winter ending analog hype train he and Cosgrove have been promoting.

The Canadian stands alone but even that looks more elevation based out in West Texas stretching perhaps into the HC. The one thing I'll say about the Canadian ensemble is it's definitely been the most consistent out of the globals and has good operational agreement over the past several runs. So at least you have that to point to.

The GEFS and EPS may have one or two members indicating some snow right now around the 17th-21st range, but that skews what the total snowfall output shows and that's why you'll see a run put something down (albeit very light) across a good portion of the state, but that's not necessarily indicative of a higher probability of occurrence. That's important to keep in mind when you talk about "signals"

The main point to all this is Cosgrove and Bastardi's "big headlines" to the winter ending with a bang are likely going to fade with the way things are trending. That doesn't mean we still don't have the small window around the 17th-21st to watch, but beyond that it just doesn't look promising. A lot of rain could be on the way though for places that still need it and so that's not a bad thing leading into Spring.

[Brent]

Lmao the GFS is so not impressed even with Sunday here. Meanwhile the NAM has 33 inches west of OKC and it's still snowing

[Itryatgolf]

wthrfan ive been private messaging cosgrove, says a blend a of the euro and CMC models are more what will likely be closer to reality, we will see, the GFS and Euro both were both downright awful with our arctic blast back in January, so many moving parts to this pattern which is giving the models fits right now, we just need enough cold air to do the trick

I think Cosgrove is on an island right now with Bastardi to be honest. Bastardi sounded so defeated today in his daily video. Teleconnections on the weeklies don't look as promising and he knows it (especially the EPO now going positive late Feb into March). Even the AO is trending closer to neutral by late Feb. That's code for stick a fork in the blockbuster winter ending analog hype train he and Cosgrove have been promoting.

The Canadian stands alone but even that looks more elevation based out in West Texas stretching perhaps into the HC. The one thing I'll say about the Canadian ensemble is it's definitely been the most consistent out of the globals and has good operational agreement over the past several runs. So at least you have that to point to.

The GEFS and EPS may have one or two members indicating some snow right now around the 17th-21st range, but that skews what the total snowfall output shows and that's why you'll see a run put something down (albeit very light) across a good portion of the state, but that's not necessarily indicative of a higher probability of occurrence. That's important to keep in mind when you talk about "signals"

The main point to all this is Cosgrove and Bastardi's "big headlines" to the winter ending with a bang are likely going to fade with the way things are trending. That doesn't mean we still don't have the small window around the 17th-21st to watch, but beyond that it just doesn't look promising. A lot of rain could be on the way though for places that still need it and so that's not a bad thing leading into Spring.

Typically most Niños are backloaded so this one goes against the grain imo. Surprised that January will be the coldest month but can happen. Perhaps the mjo just isn't moving like first thought? Not sure

[Stratton23]

Not what I was hoping to hear, but I refuse to throw in the towel yet, plenty of time for good trends

[txtwister78]

wthrfan ive been private messaging cosgrove, says a blend a of the euro and CMC models are more what will likely be closer to reality, we will see, the GFS and Euro both were both downright awful with our arctic blast back in January, so many moving parts to this pattern which is giving the models fits right now, we just need enough cold air to do the trick

I think Cosgrove is on an island right now with Bastardi to be honest. Bastardi sounded so defeated today in his daily video. Teleconnections on the weeklies don't look as promising and he knows it (especially the EPO now going positive late Feb into March). Even the AO is trending closer to neutral by late Feb. That's code for stick a fork in the blockbuster winter ending analog hype train he and Cosgrove have been promoting.

The Canadian stands alone but even that looks more elevation based out in West Texas stretching perhaps into the HC. The one thing I'll say about the Canadian ensemble is it's definitely been the most consistent out of the globals and has good operational agreement over the past several runs. So at least you have that to point to.

The GEFS and EPS may have one or two members indicating some snow right now around the 17th-21st range, but that skews what the total snowfall output shows and that's why you'll see a run put something down (albeit very light) across a good portion of the state, but that's not necessarily indicative of a higher probability of occurrence. That's important to keep in mind when you talk about "signals"

The main point to all this is Cosgrove and Bastardi's "big headlines" to the winter ending with a bang are likely going to fade with the way things are trending. That doesn't mean we still don't have the small window around the 17th-21st to watch, but beyond that it just doesn't look promising. A lot of rain could be on the way though for places that still need it and so that's not a bad thing leading into Spring.

Typically most Niños are backloaded so this one goes against the grain imo. Surprised that January will be the coldest month but can happen. Perhaps the mjo just isn't moving like first thought? Not sure

True, however this has not been a typical El Nino by any stretch (has had La Nina characteristics) and so that can throw off the analogs. The MJO stall into the warmer phases was something that really messed up the transition to what was expected to be a much colder February from those two forecasters in particular for example.

[Ntxw]

Tornado warning in southern Wisconsin. Aren't they supposed to be below 0?

[JDawg512]

 https://x.com/noaaclimate/status/1755621028972171589

This sucks. We really didn't get the kind of rainfall that we needed especially over the Hill Country and we are already moving into another LA Niña. Booo

[Wthrfan]

Experts chime in here. Would it be unusual to have three LaNina years in-a-row, a rather tepid El Niño and then transition back to a La Niña pattern so quickly?

[Brent]

Tornado warning in southern Wisconsin. Aren't they supposed to be below 0?

They had severe weather before we did. How is that possible

[Cpv17]

Tornado warning in southern Wisconsin. Aren't they supposed to be below 0?

What the? That’s bananas

[Brent]

Tornado warning in southern Wisconsin. Aren't they supposed to be below 0?

What the? That’s bananas

I had seen a tornadocast near Chicago last night but sort of laughed it off

Like I don't even think Oklahoma has had any severe weather yet lol that marginal line near OKC when the quake hit last weekend is about it. It didn't even make it over here

[bubba hotep]

00z 12k NAM is coming in a bit slower and farther south. Will that have any downstream impacts?

[Iceresistance]

NAM jumped south, with 3 FEET of snow in Western Oklahoma and Panhandle Texas


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