2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

Oh my, waters warm like July, but is only Febuary.

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1757892634083758452

[WiscoWx02]

Yikes, look at that ridge with the C35 model.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1756670358604661207

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756673909376590331

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756679613462282535

Cruiser time? Been a while...

I doubt it honestly. Caribbean cruisers seem to be a thing of the past, can’t recall the last time we had one, think 2007? I’ve often times wondered if our changing climate has anything to do with it but can’t really see how it would but I’m still not sold our changing climate is making the Atlantic more favorable, I ultimately think it will do the opposite and maybe a lack of Caribbean Sea activity is a by product?

[WeatherBoy2000]

Yikes, look at that ridge with the C35 model.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1756670358604661207

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756673909376590331

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756679613462282535

Cruiser time? Been a while...

I doubt it honestly. Caribbean cruisers seem to be a thing of the past, can’t recall the last time we had one, think 2007? I’ve often times wondered if our changing climate has anything to do with it but can’t really see how it would but I’m still not sold our changing climate is making the Atlantic more favorable, I ultimately think it will do the opposite and maybe a lack of Caribbean Sea activity is a by product?

There was a study by I think Klotzbach that analyzed the overall trend in tropical activity across all basins since the 80s and the Atlantic is the only one that showed an appreciable uptrend. Basins like the Wpac have been down trending. How much of this is due to climate age or the amo is up in the air, but since 2016 the only season that failed to achieve at least 130 ace was 2022. So far, I think climate change has been more favorable than not for Atlantic activity.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Cruiser time? Been a while...

I doubt it honestly. Caribbean cruisers seem to be a thing of the past, can’t recall the last time we had one, think 2007? I’ve often times wondered if our changing climate has anything to do with it but can’t really see how it would but I’m still not sold our changing climate is making the Atlantic more favorable, I ultimately think it will do the opposite and maybe a lack of Caribbean Sea activity is a by product?

There was a study by I think Klotzbach that analyzed the overall trend in tropical activity across all basins since the 80s and the Atlantic is the only one that showed an appreciable uptrend. Basins like the Wpac have been down trending. How much of this is due to climate age or the amo is up in the air, but since 2016 the only season that failed to achieve at least 130 ace was 2022. So far, I think climate change has been more favorable than not for Atlantic activity.

I think this is the study you're referring to, although it wasn't by Klotzbach. I remember reading it a while back:
Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones

This is the graphic from that study I've seen make the rounds a lot regarding what you're alluding to:

[zzzh]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1757603130735317141



Models suddenly flipped to +NAO, that would erode some canary current warmth.

[DioBrando]

Yikes, look at that ridge with the C35 model.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1756670358604661207

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756673909376590331

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756679613462282535

Cruiser time? Been a while...

I doubt it honestly. Caribbean cruisers seem to be a thing of the past, can’t recall the last time we had one, think 2007?

Irma says hi

[JetFuel_SE]

Cruiser time? Been a while...

I doubt it honestly. Caribbean cruisers seem to be a thing of the past, can’t recall the last time we had one, think 2007?

Irma says hi

Irma was certainly not a CC lol.

[Category5Kaiju]

I doubt it honestly. Caribbean cruisers seem to be a thing of the past, can’t recall the last time we had one, think 2007?

Irma says hi

Irma was certainly not a CC lol.

In a certain sense though, we could count Matthew, Eta, and Iota? But yeah, it's been a while since a major hurricane entered the ECAR and went all the way to the WCAR while maintaining such strength or even getting stronger

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I doubt it honestly. Caribbean cruisers seem to be a thing of the past, can’t recall the last time we had one, think 2007?

Irma says hi

Irma was certainly not a CC lol.

I guess there's technically no set criteria for a Caribbean Cruiser since it's an informal term but I think the most widely accepted definition is a TC which traverses the length of the Caribbean almost entirely as a hurricane. Irma went N of the Caribbean and passed over the Northern Leewards instead, so it would not meet those conditions.

[TheWisestofAll]

Irma says hi

Irma was certainly not a CC lol.

In a certain sense though, we could count Matthew, Eta, and Iota? But yeah, it's been a while since a major hurricane entered the ECAR and went all the way to the WCAR while maintaining such strength or even getting stronger

There aren't that many Caribbean Cruisers in the historical record to begin with. Most years don't see one, and the ones that do usually only feature one. I think there's some conflating going on with general Caribbean MH activity and actual legit Cruisers that come in from the open MDR.

[SFLcane]

Enso related but thought i would post here since its about the Atantic hurricane season.

 https://x.com/hurricanetrack/status/1758145820627464686

[cycloneye]

JB has his analogs 1998,2005,2017 and 2020 for the 2024 season and continues with his 25-30 numbers.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1758188861769822334




 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1758189322195390732

[CyclonicFury]

2021 had Hurricane Grace which could be considered a "Caribbean Cruiser" even though it was very weak for most of its path through the Caribbean. I don't think we can say Caribbean cruisers are a "thing of the past", but we are overdue for a hurricane that traverses the entire Caribbean at hurricane strength. To get one you need strong ridging and a well developed hurricane before the Lesser Antilles which just hasn't happened often. That would be most likely to occur during August, which hasn't seen a lot of intense deep tropics hurricanes in recent years. We've seen plenty of Cape Verde type hurricanes in recent years but most of them recurved because they formed in September when ridging is usually weaker.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1758223938025594927

[TheWisestofAll]

JB has his analogs 1998,2005,2017 and 2020 for the 2024 season and continues with his 25-30 numbers.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1758188861769822334

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1758189322195390732

Why is it only this site that has CFS going +PDO? Literally nothing else has it developing, even the CFS on other sites and used officially in the CPC ENSO reports do not forecast a +PDO. What is going on here?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

JB has his analogs 1998,2005,2017 and 2020 for the 2024 season and continues with his 25-30 numbers.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1758188861769822334

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1758189322195390732

Why is it only this site that has CFS going +PDO? Literally nothing else has it developing, even the CFS on other sites and used officially in the CPC ENSO reports do not forecast a +PDO. What is going on here?

Additionally the Niña depicted there looks more CP-based, which also isn't showing up on any other guidance as far as I'm concerned.
For reference this is the most recent CFS run on TT for ASO:

[Blown Away]

JB has his analogs 1998,2005,2017 and 2020 for the 2024 season and continues with his 25-30 numbers.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1758188861769822334

If JB is right, going to be a busy season on Storm2k!!

[cycloneye]

Another hot record broken. Incredible, what is going on.

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1758523548736557142




 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1758527246502109200

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1758499578993648009




 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1758507132679254219

[WeatherBoy2000]

Looks like sst anomalies will finally level off and decline at least a bit as we went enter the second half of February due to a developing +NAO. I won't be surprised it's just another temporary blip, like with the previous +NAO phases recently.