#56 Postby wxman57 » Fri Mar 29, 2024 12:17 pm
Just returned from the National Hurricane Conference last evening. Had a chance to talk to Phil Klotzbach when he stopped by our booth in the exhibit hall. Can't tell you his numbers, as he'll be releasing them at the National Tropical Weather Conference next week. However, I can say that he sees the same things that everyone else does. My main question to him was about the NAO this season. For the past several years, the NAO has been mostly negative during the season, resulting in a weaker Bermuda High and early recurving of storms. He does think that the NAO will be more positive this year, but there is a lot of uncertainty in any long-range NAO forecast. A positive NAO would open up the Caribbean for long-tracked hurricanes. It's pretty clear that all seasonal parameters suggest a much above normal season, but I remember discussing the 2013 season with him prior to the start and everything looked favorable then, too. Turned out to be a dud season. Let's hope this season is a dud.
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