Texas Spring 2024

[txtwister78]

Regarding today, I could see an increase in tornado potential further south into Oklahoma (including Oklahoma City metro) possibly down into red river with some of the new 12z model data. Some of these CAM's have gone the way of the 3km NAM which was seen as an outlier yesterday. Perhaps SPC will go moderate risk in the next update.

[txtwister78]

And there it is.

 https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1774837121498640611

[bubba hotep]

And there it is.

 https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1774837121498640611

Also, language on possible upgrade for NTX

Though convective coverage may become densest north of the Red
River, the potential for longer-lasting discrete modes near and
south of the Red River conditionally favor isolated extreme hail
sizes even into north TX. Given mesoscale uncertainties and
inconsistent convection-allowing model signals regarding initiation
timing (which influences what low-level shear/hodograph space cells
will enter) and mature storm duration before upscale merging/linear
evolution occur, will hold hail probabilities at previous levels for
now. However, a "hail moderate" may become necessary in this region
if mesoscale trends and post-12Z/today guidance become better
focused on timing/density.

[Brent]

The eclipse definitely isn't looking great but I'm increasingly concerned about the severe weather today

[HockeyTx82]

HRRR shows nothing for DFW, most way NW, Red River and upbin Oklahoma.

What are they seeing? Is it very conditional for us? Cloud deck keeping things in check?

[ElectricStorm]

Moderate risk for hail for central and eastern OK and far north TX. 10# tornado area expanded west as well.

[bubba hotep]

HRRR shows nothing for DFW, most way NW, Red River and upbin Oklahoma.

What are they seeing? Is it very conditional for us? Cloud deck keeping things in check?

Parameter space in place over NTX that would favor large hail and potentially tornadoes. However, there is a cap in place, so storm coverage is in question. HRRR fires storms along the dryline SW of DFW but they die off. If anything fires in that area and can sustain an updraft then it would be big trouble for DFW.

[txtwister78]

HRRR shows nothing for DFW, most way NW, Red River and upbin Oklahoma.

What are they seeing? Is it very conditional for us? Cloud deck keeping things in check?

Yes. Most of Texas with the exception of far north Texas near the river will be dealing with a cap throughout most of the afternoon. The question is can that be overcome as the dryline surges east. If it can then you could see some explosive storm development with giant hail due to instability values/lapse rates thus the concern.

[HockeyTx82]

HRRR shows nothing for DFW, most way NW, Red River and upbin Oklahoma.

What are they seeing? Is it very conditional for us? Cloud deck keeping things in check?

Yes. Most of Texas with the exception of far north Texas near the river will be dealing with a cap throughout most of the afternoon. The question is can that be overcome as the dryline surges east. If it can then you could see some explosive storm development with giant hail due to instability values/lapse rates thus the concern.

Evan on Fox 4 this morning said over and over he disagrees with the Enhanced, said slight was fine. Have things ramped up since then? I mean you say that on the early morning TV people tune out for later on perhaps.

[Stratton23]

Of course eclipse day is gonna get ruined by some stupid bad weather, sometimes I wish i was living anywhere but texas, the weather never wants to cooperate, ridiculous

[rwfromkansas]

It’s almost 80. The clouds aren’t the issue really as much as the cap. I don’t know enough to lean a certain way, maybe they will have a special balloon?

[txtwister78]

HRRR shows nothing for DFW, most way NW, Red River and upbin Oklahoma.

What are they seeing? Is it very conditional for us? Cloud deck keeping things in check?

Yes. Most of Texas with the exception of far north Texas near the river will be dealing with a cap throughout most of the afternoon. The question is can that be overcome as the dryline surges east. If it can then you could see some explosive storm development with giant hail due to instability values/lapse rates thus the concern.

Evan on Fox 4 this morning said over and over he disagrees with the Enhanced, said slight was fine. Have things ramped up since then? I mean you say that on the early morning TV people tune out for later on perhaps.

When it comes to severe weather, I personally don't take issue with the "better safe than sorry" approach especially when parameters are such that significant impacts are possible in highly populated areas. The cap definitely throws a wrench into the forecast no question further south but again if it does break, you go from nothing to see here to an "oh $#@!" moment pretty quickly. Models don't always get everything right when it comes to these dryline setups.

Regardless of whether you're in an enhanced or slight level risk, I just think the main message overall should be there's a chance of severe weather in general across a large area and parameters are such today that if something does develop along the I-35 corridor, very large hail is a real possibility which of course goes back to the life and property messaging.

[HockeyTx82]

Yes. Most of Texas with the exception of far north Texas near the river will be dealing with a cap throughout most of the afternoon. The question is can that be overcome as the dryline surges east. If it can then you could see some explosive storm development with giant hail due to instability values/lapse rates thus the concern.

Evan on Fox 4 this morning said over and over he disagrees with the Enhanced, said slight was fine. Have things ramped up since then? I mean you say that on the early morning TV people tune out for later on perhaps.

When it comes to severe weather, I personally don't take issue with the "better safe than sorry" approach especially when parameters are such that significant impacts are possible in highly populated areas. The cap definitely throws a wrench into the forecast no question further south but again if it does break, you go from nothing to see here to an "oh $#@!" moment pretty quickly. Models don't always get everything right when it comes to these dryline setups.

Regardless of whether you're in an enhanced or slight level risk, I just think the main message overall should be there's a chance of severe weather in general across a large area and parameters are such today that if something does develop along the I-35 corridor, very large hail is a real possibility which of course goes back to the life and property messaging.

I think he was still advising that just downplaying enhanced overkill. But still saying that things could go.

[txtwister78]

Evan on Fox 4 this morning said over and over he disagrees with the Enhanced, said slight was fine. Have things ramped up since then? I mean you say that on the early morning TV people tune out for later on perhaps.

When it comes to severe weather, I personally don't take issue with the "better safe than sorry" approach especially when parameters are such that significant impacts are possible in highly populated areas. The cap definitely throws a wrench into the forecast no question further south but again if it does break, you go from nothing to see here to an "oh $#@!" moment pretty quickly. Models don't always get everything right when it comes to these dryline setups.

Regardless of whether you're in an enhanced or slight level risk, I just think the main message overall should be there's a chance of severe weather in general across a large area and parameters are such today that if something does develop along the I-35 corridor, very large hail is a real possibility which of course goes back to the life and property messaging.

I think he was still advising that just downplaying enhanced overkill. But still saying that things could go.

No I got that. I personally think we have too many risk levels but that's a topic for a different day.

[Stratton23]

yeah the mesocale models arent very thrilled with the idea of severe weather today, not showing too much, its going to be conditional due to the CAP

[Gotwood]

The weather channel app is showing a line moving through the metroplex they are not the most reliable but something to note.

[Ntxw]

So models are trending towards a possible severe weather setup for Texas on eclipse day?

April is severe weather season for much of Texas, so wouldn't be out of realm. Synoptics is set up as currently modeled, is for rain and storms.

Jet streak is hinting at SW flow a loft from the Pacific.

https://i.imgur.com/nJvtSgR.png

So Texas is pretty much guaranteed to get clouded/rained out on eclipse day even this far out?

I’m like this close to scrapping my trip and just settling for the 90% partial in CT. At least I’d actually see something that day.

Upstate NY looks like a decent view.

The NWS FW noted it is likely to be cloudy. But no one knows if there are breaks during that exact period. It's still a long way forecast but the trends haven't been going well.

[Ntxw]

Evan on Fox 4 this morning said over and over he disagrees with the Enhanced, said slight was fine. Have things ramped up since then? I mean you say that on the early morning TV people tune out for later on perhaps.

When it comes to severe weather, I personally don't take issue with the "better safe than sorry" approach especially when parameters are such that significant impacts are possible in highly populated areas. The cap definitely throws a wrench into the forecast no question further south but again if it does break, you go from nothing to see here to an "oh $#@!" moment pretty quickly. Models don't always get everything right when it comes to these dryline setups.

Regardless of whether you're in an enhanced or slight level risk, I just think the main message overall should be there's a chance of severe weather in general across a large area and parameters are such today that if something does develop along the I-35 corridor, very large hail is a real possibility which of course goes back to the life and property messaging.

I think he was still advising that just downplaying enhanced overkill. But still saying that things could go.

By short term guidance most won't get much of anything, including rain. Like a few weeks ago the one or two blowups if they survive can be hailers. Whether it is rural Wise county to middle of Collin county who knows. The latter helps spikes insurance for all in the region later.

[HockeyTx82]

When it comes to severe weather, I personally don't take issue with the "better safe than sorry" approach especially when parameters are such that significant impacts are possible in highly populated areas. The cap definitely throws a wrench into the forecast no question further south but again if it does break, you go from nothing to see here to an "oh $#@!" moment pretty quickly. Models don't always get everything right when it comes to these dryline setups.

Regardless of whether you're in an enhanced or slight level risk, I just think the main message overall should be there's a chance of severe weather in general across a large area and parameters are such today that if something does develop along the I-35 corridor, very large hail is a real possibility which of course goes back to the life and property messaging.

I think he was still advising that just downplaying enhanced overkill. But still saying that things could go.

By short term guidance most won't get much of anything, including rain. Like a few weeks ago the one or two blowups if they survive can be hailers. Whether it is rural Wise county to middle of Collin county who knows. The latter helps spikes insurance for all in the region later.

And one hurricane on the Texas coast will guarantee a premium raise. It's a never-ending cycle.

[HockeyTx82]

That HRRR 17z 02z frame...... not liking that. Hopefully it goes away on the 18z run.

How much faith should one run give when all trends before showed nothing?