DorkyMcDorkface wrote:zzzh wrote:New Cansips is out, things still look very favorable though weaker compared to the last run.
One thing I noticed is the South Atlantic sst:
https://i.postimg.cc/2yf3pNyj/cansips-ssta-noice-samer-fh0-trend.gif
Most models fail to capture the warmth in the south atlantic and now trend toward less +AMM and a more suppressed ITCZ.
https://i.postimg.cc/Kz8LVKGN/cansips-apcpna-month-samer-fh0-trend.gif
You can see the wet anomaly shifts to the south of equator while the dry anomaly shifts to the north of equator.
Typically the AMM is phase-locked in the spring, and if the south atlantic does not cool down in the next 2 month, we are going to see enhanced trades over east atlantic/mdr this summer.
That's an interesting adjustment/caveat. Doesn't look like it cools the SATL that much by peak either, and you can see the resulting ITCZ shifting equatorward in this period as well as a result.
https://i.ibb.co/Z2XCQBG/cansips-ssta-Mean-noice-month-samer-fh6-trend.gif
https://i.ibb.co/YZkr2Fp/cansips-apcpna-multimonth-samer-fh6-trend.gif
MDR remains more or less the same in terms of well-above avg warmth so it doesn't appear to be too much of a negating factor, but it is probably worth keeping a watchful eye on how SSTs in the SATL evolve, especially if the other guidance follows suit in showing this.
https://i.ibb.co/nLqjGxD/cansips-ssta-Mean-noice-month-atl-fh6-trend-1.gif
https://i.ibb.co/MC7nmQb/90f81bfd-3ee8-4092-9044-fab5f102a2a1.gif
Andy Hazelton just cited a paper saying a stronger Atlantic Nino may result in an even more active CV season.
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1774879634712101149
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1774880248137458102