https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal922024.dat
ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
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ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
AL, 92, 2024061918, , BEST, 0, 264N, 710W, 30, 1015, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, al752024 to al922024,
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal922024.dat
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Blown Away Your message about it may be invest is now reality. 

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
I wouldn't be shocked to see recon or ascat to show this closed and a little bit more convection. well, it wouldn't take a hell of a lot to go from 20 to 80. 

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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Landy, split your post at the Talking Tropics thread to make the main 92L discussion thread.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
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- AJC3
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Sciencerocks wrote:I wouldn't be shocked to see recon or ascat to show this closed and a little bit more convection. well, it wouldn't take a hell of a lot to go from 20 to 80.
I would be quite surprised, at least right now. Low clouds elements do show a tiny area of apparent west winds relative to the vort center right at the cusp. However, if you zoom in super tight and look closely at the motion of the low cloud elements, without having your eyes follow the actual vort center, there aren't any ground-relative westerly winds on the south side yet. Given the limitations of the scatterometer, even when/if the system starts to acquire a small area of g-r west winds south of the center ASCAT won't show it, until/unless the area becomes large enough to get captured by the resolution of the instrument. This is still an inverted trough.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
been watching all last night and today. Very persistent convective activity, albeit somewhat shallow and displaced. Definitely a surface maximum of vorticity just to the west of the convection. potentially some gradual organization in store for it if it can continue producing convection. Won't take much with it being so small and already having a solid structure.
will know more tomorrow when recon investigates
will know more tomorrow when recon investigates
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- HurricaneBelle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
It would be interesting if this became Beryl and made landfall in the same location as the 2012 version.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Now 30/30.
Looks like June might not be so quiet after all.
Looks like June might not be so quiet after all.
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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Based on the TWO image, it appears that the NHC is raising the chance from 20% to 30%. I didn’t expect that. I don’t see the text yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure has formed about 300 miles east of
the northwestern Bahamas this evening with disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of
this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or Georgia early on
Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
A small area of low pressure has formed about 300 miles east of
the northwestern Bahamas this evening with disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of
this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or Georgia early on
Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Impressive rebound from the graveyard.Category5Kaiju wrote:Now 30/30.
Looks like June might not be so quiet after all.
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
I don't really see this developing but I could be wrong of course. Maybe it'll try to pull a quick one near landfall.
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Boomer Sooner!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
00z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2024062000, , BEST, 0, 264N, 723W, 30, 1013, DB

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
It appears to me that the 300-700mb humidity looks to slightly improve tomorrow with this disturbance. Couple that along with a bit of added Gulf Stream SST and I think a 35 mph TD is not unreasonable to imagine. The fact that it is as small as it is can lend itself to quicker organization. Would still need to see evidence of surface west winds though. With a stout 594mb high to its north I would think that any improved vertical stature might cause it to continue mostly westward (St. Augustine perhaps?). Should at least bring in a few breezy squalls to Central/Northeast Florida on Friday.
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Really curious to see how 92L handles DMax. While I don’t necessarily think it will definitely develop, I think it has a pretty decent chance- better than the 30% it’s being given currently- if it can wrap and sustain a bit more convection. To me, it has the same look as a few other storms (Emily 2017, Gordon 2018, Danny 2021, etc) that ultimately struggled until rapidly organizing into tropical storms right before landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Am thinking 50% may be in order by 8:00 am. Another PTC Storm Watch on our hands? 92L is the "anti-gyre"
Perhaps a bit more like the "world's largest waterspout" LOL

Perhaps a bit more like the "world's largest waterspout" LOL
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Andy D
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