2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Woofde]

Here's an indicator alright

Yeah, you definitely don't see this many areas of interest most June's. Ever since the MJO passage, there's been something or another to watch. Is it a sign of things to come? I suppose we shall see.

[weeniepatrol]

Increasing chances for three simultaneous late June/early July tropical cyclones. Hourly reminder that all three are from tropical waves, not random nonsense cold front spinups

[Hurricane Mike]

I can't believe how active it is for June 28th.

[weeniepatrol]

I can't believe how active it is for June 28th.

The NHC map straight up looks like August 28th

[FireRat]

I can't believe how active it is for June 28th.

Me neither, holy cow! I thought we wouldn't see much until early August. Seems the crazy forecast numbers for 2024 might be warranted after all

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/stormchaserjs/status/1806992520519258442



What we’re seeing right now with Beryl in my opinion clearly shows the favorbility we are dealing with and is quite the sign of what is looming come ASO.

Below is the CS3 for August and September these climate models update for the month of July in a few days.

[zzzh]

IThe Atlantic is clearly very favorable right now but it doesn't reflect on the precip anomaly.

[Category5Kaiju]

Poor 2013, never really got a chance to spook wx enthusiasts for the 2024 season

[AnnularCane]

Poor 2013, never really got a chance to spook wx enthusiasts for the 2024 season

I'm sure 2013 will get more chances. Unless 2022 replaced it.

[tolakram]

[--xpost]https://x.com/republicanwx/status/1806006129471750246[--/xpost]

The season canceling is beginning to hit its stride. In the comments this poster does bring up a good point about persistent ULL's traversing the Atlantic around the east coast heat dome imparting shear on the tropics but...it is only late June. I am not entirely sold on the accuracy of the CFS model as a whole since it changes so often and can go polar opposite one day to the next. Yes, I do not think this season is going to be as active as most think for my own personal reasons but I don't think it wise to write the season off until this is still a problem come early September, and even then, we'll still likely have hurricanes (99% chance)

Republican Wx
Just your un-average weather fanatic. *I AM NOT A METEOROLOGIST* (My inspiration is Ninel Conde from S2K.)

Not sure you're up on S2K history but fair warning, I consider this poster a troll and all should avoid tweets from this person.

[tolakram]

Sat overview as of June 29th.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://x.com/republicanwx/status/1806006129471750246



The season canceling is beginning to hit its stride. In the comments this poster does bring up a good point about persistent ULL's traversing the Atlantic around the east coast heat dome imparting shear on the tropics but...it is only late June. I am not entirely sold on the accuracy of the CFS model as a whole since it changes so often and can go polar opposite one day to the next. Yes, I do not think this season is going to be as active as most think for my own personal reasons but I don't think it wise to write the season off until this is still a problem come early September, and even then, we'll still likely have hurricanes (99% chance)

Along came Beryl.

[Texoz]

Sat overview as of June 29th.

https://i.imgur.com/0tpQiuC.png

Apologies if it's already been asked, but what's the blob west of Beryl?

[Hurricaneman]

Sat overview as of June 29th.

https://i.imgur.com/0tpQiuC.png

Apologies if it's already been asked, but what's the blob west of Beryl?

A tropical wave, no model develops it

[zzzh]

A June major hurricane in the MDR, potentially the first Caribbean cruiser in 17 years, is the best indicator that the season will be extremely active.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I want to see what happens to WeatherTiger's real-time season projection today. It took a sizeable jump yesterday even before the hurricane designation:

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/real-time-2024-atlantic-hurricane

[Kingarabian]

ENSO transitioning to cool neutral and a dead EPAC. In for a very active Atlantic hurricane season.

[tolakram]

First annular call for 2024 just happened. Might be the earliest ever. EPAC, sure, but not the Atlantic.

[tolakram]

June 30th, crazy scene

[tolakram]

Not an indicator but not sure where to drop these overview loops.