ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

So far recon doesn't support Cat 4 but with the pressure drop (if that's confirmed by drop, sometimes extrap can be a little off) id imagine winds will start to increase again pretty soon

[Weatherwatcher2018]

So far so good in Barbados, but will it stay this way?

[aspen]

Yeah looks to be steady right now. Similar to what some hurricane runs were showing for Sunday into Monday.

[Xyls]

So far recon doesn't support Cat 4 but with the pressure drop (if that's confirmed by drop, sometimes extrap can be a little off) id imagine winds will start to increase again pretty soon

I was going to say looking at the the latest recon it looked like a high end Cat 3. I wonder if Beryl upon reanalysis might get dropped to Cat 3 at that time as it would the highest Cat 4 pressure ever. However, it will probably go to Cat 4 again after a bit more intensification, but I am wondering if it won't actually hold it's title of being the only Cat 4 in June when all is said and done next year.

[aspen]

So far recon doesn't support Cat 4 but with the pressure drop (if that's confirmed by drop, sometimes extrap can be a little off) id imagine winds will start to increase again pretty soon

I was going to say looking at the the latest recon it looked like a high end Cat 3. I wonder if Beryl upon reanalysis might get dropped to Cat 3 at that time as it would the highest Cat 4 pressure ever. However, it will probably go to Cat 4 again after a bit more intensification, but I am wondering if it won't actually hold it's title of being the only Cat 4 in June when all is said and done next year.

I think there was enough data to justify a Cat 4. There were several Cat 4 SFMR readings, plus a 113 kt eyewall drop during the same flight.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop supports 958 so not as big of a drop as extrap suggested which is pretty typical

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1807568466431332506

[HurricaneBelle]

It's that time of tracking a hurricane when the "EWRC is happening" gang gets heated against the "EWRC is not happening" gang.

I've seen EWRC, "pinhole eye" and someone earlier said "annular" so I now have S2K bingo

[Xyls]

Beryl not looking too hot on IR right now the eye is looking messy. If this is an ERWC this is probably the worst time to do it as it will maximize the amount of islands that are going to get affected by hurricane winds.

[Charleswachal]

So far recon doesn't support Cat 4 but with the pressure drop (if that's confirmed by drop, sometimes extrap can be a little off) id imagine winds will start to increase again pretty soon

I was going to say looking at the the latest recon it looked like a high end Cat 3. I wonder if Beryl upon reanalysis might get dropped to Cat 3 at that time as it would the highest Cat 4 pressure ever. However, it will probably go to Cat 4 again after a bit more intensification, but I am wondering if it won't actually hold it's title of being the only Cat 4 in June when all is said and done next year.

I think there was enough data to justify a Cat 4. There were several Cat 4 SFMR readings, plus a 113 kt eyewall drop during the same flight.

They just had a dropsound show 119 knt winds at the surface so it suffices to say that it is probably still a cat 4

[ElectricStorm]

Based on the first few passes I'd probably go with 105kts/958mb for the current intensity. Still not really seeing much of a double wind max though.

[Xyls]

I was going to say looking at the the latest recon it looked like a high end Cat 3. I wonder if Beryl upon reanalysis might get dropped to Cat 3 at that time as it would the highest Cat 4 pressure ever. However, it will probably go to Cat 4 again after a bit more intensification, but I am wondering if it won't actually hold it's title of being the only Cat 4 in June when all is said and done next year.

I think there was enough data to justify a Cat 4. There were several Cat 4 SFMR readings, plus a 113 kt eyewall drop during the same flight.

They just had a dropsound show 119 knt winds at the surface so it suffices to say that it is probably still a cat 4

Stengthening as an EWRC kicking into effect?

[Category5Kaiju]

Landfall on the islands is expected around midday tomorrow. That's still about 16 hours.

The only "good" (relatively speaking) thing about an EWRC is that intensity may not be as high or the same as before. Bad news is, the core is going to expand (making more places vulnerable to hurricane-force winds), and that drop in intensity may still be at major hurricane levels.

And if this EWRC finishes within hours, intensification could resume shortly thereafter. Now is honestly not a good time for an EWRC to occur.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's that time of tracking a hurricane when the "EWRC is happening" gang gets heated against the "EWRC is not happening" gang.

I've seen EWRC, "pinhole eye" and someone earlier said "annular" so I now have S2K bingo

You obviously missed the "Cat 5" space

[aspen]

Based on the first few passes I'd probably go with 105kts/958mb for the current intensity. Still not really seeing much of a double wind max though.

Me neither, but the IR presentation looks like an EWRC is commencing. Perhaps a tiny bit of shear snuck in, or maybe there’s an eyewall meld going on instead of a full-blown EWRC.

[CrazyC83]

If the storm increases in size or latitude as well, the pressure could fall even if the winds decrease. 960 mb, after all, is very high for a category 4, although understandable given the small size earlier, fast movement and very low latitude.

[Coolcruiseman]

To see something like this at this location at this time of year, just wow!

Prayers for those facing this beast tomorrow.

Definitely makes one wonder what this season has in store.

[Buck]

It's that time of tracking a hurricane when the "EWRC is happening" gang gets heated against the "EWRC is not happening" gang.

I've seen EWRC, "pinhole eye" and someone earlier said "annular" so I now have S2K bingo

Don’t forget calling for retirement before any land has been impacted! That’s basically a free space.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

It's that time of tracking a hurricane when the "EWRC is happening" gang gets heated against the "EWRC is not happening" gang.

I've seen EWRC, "pinhole eye" and someone earlier said "annular" so I now have S2K bingo

Don’t forget calling for retirement before any land has been impacted! That’s basically a free space.

A strong possibility in this case, now that you bring it up!

[Teban54]

Based on the first few passes I'd probably go with 105kts/958mb for the current intensity. Still not really seeing much of a double wind max though.

Me neither, but the IR presentation looks like an EWRC is commencing. Perhaps a tiny bit of shear snuck in, or maybe there’s an eyewall meld going on instead of a full-blown EWRC.

Oh look, now we're adding "eyewall meld" to the bingo card too!

(In fairness, that does seem like a legit possibility.)