ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[got ants?]

An EWRC right now may end up being quite inopportune in terms of timing- should it complete in the next 6-8 hours, it would still leave some time for re-strengthening prior to landfall tomorrow, and the windfield would be significantly expanded.

It would also increase the number of areas seeing hurricane force winds. For Barbados and St. Vincent especially, an EWRC would be bad news.

I'm really worried for Carricou apnd especially all the boats in Tyrell Bay. Mostly absent owner homes and boats, How many even bothered to move thier boats, or board up?

[Zonacane]

Based on radar, Beryl is going through more of a merger, there is no well-defined moat, and it looks close to done.

[CrazyC83]

Latest drop had 967/18 (so 965 mb) and winds have decreased with an open concentric eyewall. Winds have dropped some too.

[Stratton23]

the EWRC looks like its close to being completed, i suspect we will see some more intensification some time tommorow before it makes landfall

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...BERYL APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WITHIN A FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 59.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

[Teban54]

EWRC on radar:

[LarryWx]

Impending very sad and scary situation for those islands. But at least it has weakened a little for now.

[Teban54]

Outer eyewall taking shape on IR too. Also, for the first time in a while, Beryl has gotten rid of the look of being plagued with (a bit of) shear and dry air.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

That surely is a quick EWRC. Looks like it's almost done.

[kevin]

EWRC is nearly completed and one of the smoothest ones I've seen the last few years. Intensity only dropped by 10 kt and is already holding steady based on ADT.

[Teban54]

[kevin]

A new burst of very strong convection near the eye and dvorak images indicate that Beryl has closed off a -63C CDO again, even if it's still a bit rough-looking. Raw T# has gone up to 6.1 after a drop to 5.6 three hours ago. The mean cloud temperature has also cooled again from -60C to -65C and the eye is getting warmer (temp increase from 0.1C to 13.7C).

[Teban54]

2.5 hours ago:

[Teban54]

https://i.postimg.cc/YqGF0rCY/goes16-ir-meso1-2.gif

[kevin]

AI-RI from 2 hours ago gives a 49% chance of 25kt/24h (105 -> 130 kt) and 36% chance of 35kt/24hr (105 -> 140 kt).

[kevin]

New recon is on its way and might arrive during another period of intensification.

[alan1961]

Stay safe in the islands

[REDHurricane]

Uh oh, this is not looking good for the islands unfortunately... Beryl is about to really let it rip now

[REDHurricane]