ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Ubuntwo]

Lol this pass supports a low-950s 130kt Cat 4. What a strange storm. I don’t recall seeing a system with such high winds at such high pressures.

Given it's 133 kt FL, 133 kt SFMR, I feel it's more likely that the NHC may discard the SFMR reading as being inflated at high wind speeds, similar to what they’ve been doing the last few years.

This is the updated SFMR algorithm to correct the high bias they’ve been running with since 2023. It’s also worth noting that low latitude systems tend to produce better mixing, with ratios sometimes exceeding 100%.

[Kazmit]

Starting to get that Katrina buzzsaw look. If that eye opens up a little wider, I'll be tempted to use the "a" word. A much more robust system compared to yesterday.

[Chris90]

Lol this pass supports a low-950s 130kt Cat 4. What a strange storm. I don’t recall seeing a system with such high winds at such high pressures.

I think it has to do with the background pressures/gradient. Nicole 2016 was 140/950, and Omar 2008 was 130/958 iirc

Despite the larger core after the ERC, it's still not a massive storm, and it's moving west under a ridge, the gradient is strong. Felix '07 was similar, I believe he was at 120kts at 956mb. He was a Cat 5 with a pressure in the 930s and produced a 163kt SFMR and I believe a dropsonde captured 190kt+ gusts in the lowest 200m of the eyewall.
Beryl's pressure - wind relationship is pretty normal for a deep tropics hurricane of her size moving west under a ridge.

[aspen]

An eyewall drop found 132 kt surface winds, which suggest the ~130 kt SFMR estimates are accurate.

[Charleswachal]

An eyewall drop found 132 kt surface winds, which suggest the ~130 kt SFMR estimates are accurate.

If this continues to strengthen this morning we may see a borderline cat 5. The wind speeds already are approaching mid range to upper range cat 4

[3090]

Really hard to believe that Beryl appears more refined in appearance than yesterday! Unbelieveable. The colder cloud tops beginning to encircle the inner core is what has me. Good lord!

[tolakram]

Morning saved loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined using ScreenToGif

[Charleswachal]

Morning saved loop

https://i.imgur.com/ep1CaSY.gif

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined using ScreenToGif

This is so mesmerizing. To think what will happen if that eye fully clears out this morning.

[tolakram]

latest

[Beef Stew]

Update statement holds firm at 115 kts. Based on recon, that may be low.

[kevin]

Could peak as a high-end cat 4 or low-end cat 5 now that the EWRC is finished and there are still favorable conditions for a while. Unreal storm for June/July.

[Charleswachal]

Could peak as a high-end cat 4 or low-end cat 5 now that the EWRC is finished and there are still favorable conditions for a while. Unreal storm for June/July.

Well its breaking all sorts of records. If this does achieve cat 5 strength it will be the earliest cat 5 on record too

[tolakram]

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://i.imgur.com/JqOnReh.png

It looks like it has grown quite a bit.

[Stellar]

Wave action in the Grenadines is really starting to pick up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klY11ihTgDg

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1807760003089989641

[Tireman4]

From Matt Lanza...


Hurricane Beryl has just undergone what we call an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). You can read about the nuts and bolts of it here, but in a nutshell, this is where a hurricane basically takes a moment to reorganize itself and expand in size. As a result, Beryl’s wind field has increased with hurricane-force winds now out about 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds out 125 miles from the center. Beryl remains relatively compact, but it has grown somewhat. Hurricane Beryl came out of an eyewall replacement cycle this morning and is unfortunately reintensifying at the worst possible time for the Windward Islands. (Weathernerds.org)

Unfortunately, since Beryl is wrapping up an ERC, this means it will have an opportunity now to restrengthen. Winds were down to 120 mph as of early this morning from its peak around 130 mph yesterday, but we may see those increase once more. (Editor’s note: They have increased to 130 mph again as of the 8 AM AST advisory) Whatever the specifics are, it’s pretty clear that a major hurricane is going to directly impact the Windward Islands today, with the worst impacts coming near Grenada and the Grenadines, south of St. Vincent. Hurricane Beryl’s 5 AM forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows a turn more north of due west is expected, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica by later Wednesday or Thursday. Total rainfall from Beryl will be heavy, but because it is booking it west, the rain totals will generally be 10 inches or less. Surge and wind will be major problems with rainfall a secondary hazard in this case.

Once through the Windward Islands, the next land mass to watch for potential impacts will be Jamaica. While Beryl is likely to pass south of the island Wednesday night or Thursday, avoiding a direct hit, it will be close enough to deliver wind, rain, and surge to Jamaica, and it’s just a question of how much. Notably, Beryl is expected to weaken after tomorrow morning. It will begin to encounter a good bit of wind shear in the central and western Caribbean. The official forecast keeps Beryl a category 2 storm all the way to the Yucatan, but model guidance is actually a little more aggressive in weakening Beryl to perhaps even a tropical storm. While no one should be sleeping on Beryl, this is very likely to be a much different storm in 2 days than it is right now. For those of you with plans in Jamaica or the Caymans or the Yucatan and Belize, we can’t tell you what to do. Just continue to monitor Beryl’s progress and reach out to your hotel or resort for more guidance. After day 3, the weather pattern will support Beryl continuing west around the base of high pressure centered over the Southeast or northern Gulf of Mexico. Beryl should be south of Jamaica Wednesday night, continuing to be steered west or west northwest around the base of high pressure over the Southeast and Gulf. The question will be how long this high stays intact. The high is expected to weaken by Friday or Saturday. At that point, Beryl should be near or over the Yucatan.

The uncertainty then lies in whether Beryl has enough left to it after encountering shear and land to determine if it continues west northwest or shifts more northwest. There is actually decent tropical model agreement that it will continue west northwest, which is close to the official forecast as shown above. A handful of other models suggest it will turn northwesterly toward northern Mexico or Texas. Modeling is actually in rather good agreement that Beryl will cross the Yucatan and emerge in the far southern Bay of Campeche before perhaps turning more northwesterly. You can see that Beryl is expected with high confidence to pass just south of Jamaica and the Caymans before approaching the Yucatan or Belize. Confidence diminishes from there with some models dissipating Beryl and others continuing it across the Bay of Campeche toward Mexico or far south Texas. Again, keep in mind that this will be a much different storm then than it is today, and it will probably need some time to organize itself after reaching land in the Yucatan. Its forward speed is such that it will likely have a limited amount of time to get itself back together as it approaches the coast. Folks in Mexico and Texas should continue to watch Beryl’s progress, but at this point, it’s too soon to get more specific than that. Stay tuned for more on this, but in the meantime, our thoughts are with the Windward Islands today.

[xironman]

Extrap at 954, probably starting to intensify after the EWRC. Eye cleared out nicely, cat 5 is not out of the question.

[Kazmit]

Clear pinwheel effect going on in the eye right now.