ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[7cardinal]

Out of all the places a CAT 5 occurs on July 2, it is in the eastern Caribbean! Insane!

[Craters]

Very apparent NW jog…

Very very concerning in its overall trajectory.

I am as well, here in SW LA.

...and SE Texas.

[Craters]

We're going to be talking about Beryl for decades. This is absolutely insane.

I just hope that nothing shows up later in the season to make us forget about Beryl...

[Teban54]

[AxaltaRacing24]

Now the question is how Beryl deals with shear, or if it's big enough to modify the environment ahead of it.

https://i.imgur.com/NC5nJFJ.gif

That is the question, but I am noticing the shear zone backing away. It is not unheard of for intense storms like this to create their own environment and push shear out of the way

Dorian's outflow pretty much destroyed a TUTT.

That was such an unreal storm.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Now the question is how Beryl deals with shear, or if it's big enough to modify the environment ahead of it.

https://i.imgur.com/NC5nJFJ.gif

That is the question, but I am noticing the shear zone backing away. It is not unheard of for intense storms like this to create their own environment and push shear out of the way

Dorian's outflow pretty much destroyed a TUTT.

It's also firing convection on the north side that will wrap around

[La Breeze]

Beryl is ripping along. The Coriolis Effect is tugging Beryl a little poleward. Old-fashioned physics. The Texas Coast should watch very closely. Time to have your kits stocked and ready.

I am in SE Tx near LA Border please don't tell it might come here. Last year in June I had to replace my roof from just a random store. Say it so.

I am in SW LA and have finally got everything back in order early last year from Laura and Delta - insurance entanglement. Praying Beryl stays away.

[5t0rmsguy]

what will beryl look like when it gets to texas and north mexico (that area)? I have relatives who live there

[ColdMiser123]

Drop supports 936, some modest pressure falls after steady pressure readings.

[chaser1]

Now the question is how Beryl deals with shear, or if it's big enough to modify the environment ahead of it.

https://i.imgur.com/NC5nJFJ.gif

That battle fascinates the hell out of me. No doubt that the heat and energy that Beryl is pumping out must play a role in it's anticyclone to further expand north and westward. On the other hand, we are not talking about a truly large hurricane which undoubtedly alters the environment around it. High pressure aloft would seem to bridge over the extent of the Caribbean with the only significant difference perhaps being the orientation being more "unidirectional", albeit still anticyclonic. Perhaps that simply means that we'll witness a "sloppy Cat 3" approach Jamaica? Rather than weakening, I could see it's slower forward motion being impeded by increased ridging over the GOM and Beryl reintensify prior to a Yucatan landfall.

[Beef Stew]

If I didn't know better, I'd say I'm looking at a WPac supertyphoon right now the way Beryl's structure looks.

[MarioProtVI]

This is more like a March or April super typhoon in the Western Pacific - that would be the closest equivalency.

So this is basically the Atlantic’s Maysak ‘15 or (in my opinion) Surigae ‘21. Both those years had many super typhoons in the WPac, with the latter having 4 Cat 5s.

[msbee]

Video from Carriacou, which has been devastated by Beryl.
People who lost everything still have smiles on their faces somehow.
They are resilient and they will be rebuild again.
But there will be such difficult times ahead.

[Youtube] https://youtu.be/iSY8Vz1Mvuk?si=ZvCSyhCanyWE-nPw[/Youtube]

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/SlushyWx/status/1807981285400359404

[Astromanía]

Emily should be getting pretty nervous about her record right now...

Somehow I would think Emily would be more pissed that she wasn't retired.

That's one of the non-retiree's that still surprises me.

What are the other ones? Alex and Karl 2010? That's Mexico criteria for you

[CrazyC83]

This is more like a March or April super typhoon in the Western Pacific - that would be the closest equivalency.

So this is basically the Atlantic’s Maysak ‘15 or (in my opinion) Surigae ‘21. Both those years had many super typhoons in the WPac, with the latter having 4 Cat 5s.

That was my thinking too.

[CrazyC83]

 https://x.com/SlushyWx/status/1807981285400359404

Other than storms that are north of the line and transitioning to extratropical (or with significant baroclinic influences), it is very rare to approach or reach the MPI.

[Astromanía]

An old joke with my neighbors it has Rockport written all over it, something I always said for every gulf storm except for Harvey, we knew how that went... That said it is dependent of strength into the Yucatan, too much spread in the models now , hoping for a weak system that pushes into south MX, not that I wish it on anyone. In a couple of days I think we'll have a clear picture, however the GFS has been pretty steady.

I see you

[Teban54]

Others may have posted this, but here's a video of a guy in Carriacou surveying the damage and interviewing locals.


Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=iSY8Vz1Mvuk

[chaser1]

As a curious inverse event, the stronger that Beryl has gotten.... the less convective and vertically developed 96L has become. I've got to think that a good deal of sinking air in the wake of Beryl must have been a contributing factor. You can clearly see the dry air pulled down from the higher latitudes, no longer several degrees to the north of a well imbedded tropical wave - but plainly pulled further south and directly ahead of 96L.